Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"China is the only game changer in Russia's war in Ukraine...China may be one of the few countries that can have a game changer effect on Russia's war for both sides"
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, noting it is not an April Fool's joke despite seeing some gags on social media. He mentions the importance of being accurate in reporting.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses and Ukrainian Hits
- Ukrainian figures for Russian losses are reported, with 630 personnel lost, which is lower than the previous week but still above average for the war.
- Ukraine hit 1 tank, 4 APCs, 8 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 7 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 2 pieces of special equipment.
- The loss of artillery and anti-aircraft systems is significant in degrading Russian capabilities.
UK Intelligence Update
- UK Defence Intelligence reports that Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov took personal command of the war in Ukraine 80 days ago, aiming to extend control over Donbas.
- The project has largely failed, with only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties.
- There is a 40-50% chance that Gerasimov is pushing the limits of how much failure Russian political leadership will tolerate, suggesting he may be ousted.
Russian Offensive Struggles
- In March, Russia only managed to occupy about 70 sq km of Ukraine (0.01%), with around 24,000 casualties. This is deeply unimpressive for the supposed second greatest army in the world.
- The culmination of the Russian offensive seems to be occurring, with a significant decrease in attacks and progress.
- Heavy snowfall in eastern Ukraine, the biggest in 10 years, has also slowed down fighting, though it continues in Bakhmut.
Military Aid
- US is expected to announce a $2.6 billion security assistance package for Ukraine, including air surveillance radar, anti-tank missiles, fuel trucks and ammunition. However, the US will not provide ATACMS long-range missiles at this time.
- Swedish CV90s are being transported, likely to Ukraine, to help with preparations for the counter-offensive.
- Netherlands is providing Ukraine with up to 11 dogs for mine-clearing operations.
- IMF approved a $15.6 billion aid package for Ukraine over 4 years.
- Ukraine confirms JDAM precision bombs are being used in combat.
- Japan has banned exports of key materials and equipment to Russia that could be used for military purposes.
Geopolitics and Other News
- A French presidential source states China is the only potential game-changer in the war that could have an effect for either side. Jonathan notes this is obvious as China is the only nation that could balance what Ukraine's allies are providing.
- 150 war crimes suspects from the Ukraine war have been identified by Europol.
- Russia is introducing more military training for ever-younger schoolchildren, even kindergarteners, in a disturbing trend of militarising education.
- 5,000 Wagner fighters are being released, causing some concerns. A convicted murderer recruited by Wagner has already killed an elderly person after returning to Russia.
- In an absurd turn of events, Russia is taking charge of the UN Security Council for a month starting April 1st, despite its ongoing war in Ukraine and Putin facing an ICC arrest warrant.
- The US has called for Russia to release arrested WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich, who is accused of spying. Further White House response is anticipated.
- Russia's largest car manufacturer has halted production due to lack of imported parts, showing the war's economic impact.
- Moldova's president is visiting Ukraine as the countries face Russian provocations, highlighting Moldova's importance in the geopolitical chess game.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel. He appreciates comments and feedback, and lists ways to support the channel in the video description for those able and willing to do so.
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