Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"And in fact, they're scared not to fight. And so as long as you have boots in those trenches, you have guns firing back at the attackers who have to negotiate minefields and obstacles. And so it's very difficult for the Ukrainians to make any consistent gains and consolidate upon them."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:13⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update and reminds them to check the map key if needed. He notes that Max23 has reported on the difficult situation in the East, where the Russians are advancing along the entire front, according to the Commander of the Grand Forces of the AFU.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Ammunition Conservation and Frontline Overview

🎦 00:13-01:26⏩

Jonathan discusses Jane Keeves' report that Ukrainian forces are conserving ammunition due to uncertain supply chains and a lack of consistent ammunition packages, primarily from the US. This conservation effort impacts their ability to repel Russian advances. He acknowledges having a busy day and thanks JR for the mapping. He briefly mentions the northeastern axis from Kupyansk to Svatove, noting activity along the entire frontline, and prepares to delve into more specific details from various sources.

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Ukrainian Advance in Kramina Forest

🎦 01:26-02:17⏩

Citing Global War Monitor, Jonathan reports a Ukrainian advance in the Kramina forest, south of Tannikramina, marking the second advancement on this axis this week. However, he expresses uncertainty about the claim's validity, stating the need for confirmation from other sources. He suggests this might be the extent of positive developments for Ukrainian forces.

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Contested Battleground North of Bakhmut

🎦 02:17-04:13⏩

Shifting focus to north of Bakhmut, near Rozdolivka, Jonathan examines the conflicting information from DeepStateMap and other sources about territorial control. DeepStateMap suggests Ukrainian gains and losses, while other maps show Russian gains. He questions the accuracy of the depicted frontline equalization, suggesting it might be an overestimation of Russian progress. He anticipates Andrew Perpetua's mapping update for clarification and highlights Russian pressure in this area.

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Russian Advance South of Rozdolivka and Southwest of Vesele

🎦 04:13-05:26⏩

Jonathan cites reports indicating a significant Russian advance south of Rozdolivka and southwest of Vesele. He explains that a Russian semicircular movement aims to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the last village in the area. DeepStateMap and Surat Maps corroborate Russian gains around Kromove, Berkhivka, and Bohorodychne, particularly along a ridge toward Bohorodychne, putting pressure on Ukrainian positions.

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Ukrainian Retreat and Russian Pressure near Chasiv Yar

🎦 05:26-06:50⏩

Jonathan reports on the Russian capture of trenches north of Kromove and their advance on multiple axes, forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal toward fortified positions near Chasiv Yar along the O0506 highway. He acknowledges Ukrainian efforts to fortify the Chasiv Yar area and anticipates a strong defence there. Jonathan expresses his belief that while Surat Maps' claims of Russian gains might be exaggerated, the Russians are undoubtedly making progress in the region.

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Analysis of Russian Tactics and Equipment North of Bakhmut

🎦 06:50-07:20⏩

Analyzing a video showing Russian deployment in abandoned trenches north of Bakhmut, Jonathan identifies the vehicles as Desert Cross 1003s, noting their suitability for the terrain and questioning their susceptibility to pressure mines. He draws a parallel to their use in the Kherson area around the Dnipro River delta, highlighting their potential value to the Russians. He also notes the controversial aspect of these vehicles being supplied by China.

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Avdiivka Front: Limited Changes and Building Recapture

🎦 07:20-08:26⏩

Moving on to Avdiivka, Jonathan points out minimal changes on the map, except for possible Russian gains in the dachas area near the sewage treatment plant southeast of Keramik. He mentions a report of Ukrainian forces retaking a building in the northwestern part of Promzona, acknowledging the limited significance of this gain. He attributes the lack of major developments to weather conditions hindering both sides.

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Southern Frontline: Stalemate and Russian Gains near Robotyne

🎦 08:26-10:26⏩

Jonathan briefly touches upon Marinka, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka, noting significant activity but no changes to the frontline. He then focuses on Robotyne, where DeepStateMap indicates Ukrainian gains followed by Russian gains. He mentions Andrew Perpetua's skepticism about Russian control over southern streets in Robotyne, despite ongoing fighting in the tree lines south of the village. Jonathan acknowledges the dynamic nature of the frontline, with control over tree lines shifting multiple times a day. He highlights the intensity of the fighting and acknowledges Russian gains between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. Jonathan perceives this as a shift in momentum favoring the Russians, who are actively attacking as the Ukrainian advance stalls.

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Russian Attacks and Ukrainian Resistance in the Dnipro River Delta

🎦 10:26-12:33⏩

Jonathan reports no significant changes in the Dnipro River delta area around Kinshanka and Pidstepne. He cites No Reports' confirmation of two repelled Russian mechanized attacks, resulting in the destruction of Russian heavy equipment, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers. One attack occurred in Kinshanka's western outskirts, and the other originated from the forest south of Kinshanka. Jonathan highlights the Ukrainians' effective resistance, inflicting heavy losses on the Russians. He notes the abundance of drone footage showcasing destroyed Russian equipment, emphasizing the costliness of these attacks for the Russians. He concludes by saying that despite the losses, the Russians remain determined to push the Ukrainians back across the river.

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Analysis of Russian Attritional Warfare

🎦 12:33-13:34⏩

Jonathan reflects on the previous six months, noting the Russians' relentless attritional warfare approach. He highlights their disregard for human cost, citing reports of barrier troops and poorly equipped soldiers being deployed, but emphasizes that these soldiers are still willing to fight out of fear. He explains that the constant presence of Russian troops in the trenches, returning fire and forcing Ukrainians to navigate minefields, makes it difficult for Ukrainian forces to achieve and consolidate significant gains. Jonathan concludes that the current situation indicates a shift in momentum towards the Russians, with Ukrainians adopting a more defensive posture along most of the frontline, and acknowledges the Russians' recent successes.

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Wrap up

🎦 13:34-14:14⏩

Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the Ukrainian need for assistance and invites viewers to share their thoughts. He signs off and reminds everyone to like, subscribe, and share. He also mentions an upcoming live stream with Rick the Ukrainian at 6:30 p.m. his time, encouraging viewers to join the conversation.

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