Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you are going to hit like a neutral state with cyber warfare, and that neutral state knows that it's Russia that's doing it, and that neutral state is teetering on the edge of, 'Oh, should we support Ukraine by allowing some of our weaponry to go from here to there? No, okay, we're going to remain neutral,' it's going to start pushing a nation like that in the wrong direction... It's probably counterproductive."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:12⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update, the third part of a series focusing on geopolitical news related to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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New US and UK Sanctions Target Russian Entities and Allies
🎦 00:12-02:15⏩
The United States has announced sweeping sanctions targeting over 300 individuals and entities linked to Russia, China, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and the UAE. The sanctions focus on areas like energy, military industries, finance, and individuals involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children. The UK has joined the US in imposing sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, National Clearing Centre and National Settlement Depository. This move has resulted in the Moscow Exchange halting trading in Euros and Dollars, a significant blow to the Russian economy. The impact of the sanctions is evident in the 15% drop in the Moscow Exchange and the suspension of Euro and Dollar trading, contrasting sharply with the record-breaking performance of the US S&P 500 index. Jonathan poses a direct question to Putin, asking if the current state of Russia, particularly in comparison to the US, aligns with his expectations from two years ago.
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Impact on Russian Economy and Currency
🎦 02:15-03:37⏩
Jonathan highlights the significant consequences of the sanctions. The Moscow Exchange is down by 15%, major Russian banks have halted withdrawals, and their websites and client logins are inaccessible. Jonathan observes a stark contrast in economic performance, with the US stock market reaching record highs while Russia's faces severe challenges. The Russian Central Bank has announced that the Chinese Yuan will become Russia's primary currency, replacing the Euro and Dollar in determining exchange rates. Reports from Russian media indicate a rush to withdraw cash, including Rubles, from banks and ATMs, reflecting a loss of confidence in the Russian financial system.
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Medvedev's Call for Increased Disinformation
🎦 03:37-04:41⏩
In response to the new sanctions, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, launched into an expletive-filled rant, urging Russians to engage in a campaign of disinformation targeting the West. Medvedev's call for inflicting harm through "fake news" confirms what Jonathan has consistently highlighted—Russia's ongoing use of disinformation as a key tactic. Jonathan views Medvedev's statement as an open admission of Russia's strategy and an incitement to escalate these activities.
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Sanctions on Pro-Russian Moldovan Governor
🎦 04:41-05:07⏩
The US has imposed sanctions on Evgenia Gertul, the pro-Russian governor of Moldova's Gagauzia region. Jonathan sees this as a necessary step given Russia's attempts to incite unrest in pro-Russian regions of Moldova, including Gagauzia and Transnistria.
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Macron's Snap Election and Potential Impact on Ukraine
🎦 05:07-07:06⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the potential implications of French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap election. Quoting Ntenza, Jonathan highlights the risk posed by the far-right Rassemblement National party, which has shown complacency towards Russia and opposition to supporting Ukraine. Jonathan expresses concern that a strong showing by the Rassemblement National in the parliament or European Parliament could jeopardize French and EU support for Ukraine. He draws parallels between the potential negative influence of a strengthened Rassemblement National in France to that of MAGA Republicans in the US, both of which, in Jonathan's view, are susceptible to Russian influence and could undermine support for Ukraine.
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Ukraine Strengthens Anti-Corruption Measures
🎦 07:06-08:26⏩
In preparation for a potential transfer of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, Ukraine has stepped up its anti-corruption safeguards. This move comes ahead of discussions at the G7 summit in Italy regarding the confiscation of these assets. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of Ukraine addressing corruption concerns to secure continued support from the G7 and other international entities. He outlines the measures taken by Ukraine, including channeling Western budget support through the World Bank and overhauling the Defense Procurement Agency to ensure transparency and oversight. He acknowledges ongoing challenges in implementing comprehensive law enforcement reforms and removing corrupt individuals from positions of power.
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Switzerland Targeted in Cyberattack
🎦 08:26-09:30⏩
Switzerland has experienced a cyberattack, attributed to Russia, as a result of hosting peace talks. While acknowledging previous warnings about such an attack, Jonathan questions the effectiveness of targeting a neutral country like Switzerland with cyber warfare. He suggests that such actions might be counterproductive for Russia, potentially pushing neutral countries away from neutrality and towards supporting Ukraine. He emphasizes the strategic importance for Russia to maintain amicable relations with neutral nations.
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Armenia to Withdraw from CSTO
🎦 09:30-11:33⏩
Jonathan discusses Armenia's formal withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a Russian-led security bloc. While this move was anticipated, Jonathan emphasizes its significant implications. He notes this as a sign of Russia's diminishing influence in the region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that leaving the CSTO is the only option for Armenia, highlighting the strained relations between the two countries. Jonathan contrasts this with the potential expansion of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), with countries like Zimbabwe, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand expressing interest in joining. He suggests that while Russia might be seeking to expand its influence through BRICS, its grip on the CSTO appears to be weakening, as seen in Armenia's decision. Jonathan also highlights Pashinyan's statement that he will not visit Belarus as long as Alexander Lukashenko remains president. This statement, prompted by accusations that Lukashenko supported Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, further underlines the fraying relations within Russia's sphere of influence.
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Thailand's Interest in Joining BRICS
🎦 11:33-12:41⏩
Thailand's foreign minister has expressed interest in joining BRICS and hopes for an announcement in October. Jonathan points to a previous incident where Thailand yielded to Russian pressure and detained members of a Russian-Israeli music group for expressing anti-war sentiments during a concert. This incident, Jonathan argues, exemplifies Russia's attempts to exert influence and suppress dissent even beyond its borders.
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US and Ukraine to Sign 10-Year Security Agreement
🎦 12:41-14:38⏩
President Biden and Zelensky are set to sign a 10-year security agreement at the G7 summit, with Japan also expected to participate in similar agreements. Jonathan views these bilateral agreements as crucial in providing security assurances to Ukraine in the absence of NATO membership. He acknowledges that NATO membership for Ukraine, while not impossible, is a lengthy process and unlikely to happen while the war is ongoing. He sees the bilateral agreements as a significant step towards bridging the gap until Ukraine potentially joins NATO, offering a level of security commitment in the interim. The agreement commits the US to long-term support for the Ukrainian armed forces, including the transfer of advanced technologies. While not a guarantee of US military intervention, the agreement signifies a deepening of the security relationship and serves as a deterrent against future Russian aggression. Jonathan emphasizes that similar agreements are already in place between Ukraine and 15 other countries, outlining provisions for military aid, training, intelligence sharing, and support for Ukraine's military industry. He stresses that while these agreements don't obligate any country to directly engage in combat alongside Ukraine, they represent a strong show of support and a commitment to bolstering Ukraine's defense capabilities.
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Concerns About Russian Interference in US Elections
🎦 14:38-15:50⏩
Concerns have been raised about potential Russian interference in the upcoming US presidential election, aimed at undermining support for Ukraine. Jonathan points to evidence of Russian meddling in the 2016 and 2020 US elections, highlighting admissions from social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook regarding Russia's involvement. He clarifies that he is specifically referring to "meddling" and "interference" through disinformation campaigns and the use of online trolls and bots. He emphasizes the distinction between "meddling" and "collusion," stating that the latter is a separate issue.
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Backlash to the "Roller Coaster" Report
🎦 15:50-25:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the backlash to a report and database titled "Roller Coaster," which identifies individuals and organisations accused of spreading disinformation and hindering support for Ukraine. He highlights the report's identification of figures like Ron Paul, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Max Blumenthal, Tucker Carlson, Ron DeSantis, and organisations such as Fox News, Turning Point USA, and Breitbart News as allegedly promoting narratives that benefit Russia. The report has drawn criticism, with some, including Elon Musk, labeling it as "terrorism" and a threat to free speech. Republican lawmakers have called for defunding the Ukrainian NGO Texty.org.ua, which produced the report. Texty.org.ua has issued a statement defending its work and maintaining that it has not received direct funding from the US government. Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk for hypocrisy, pointing out his self-proclaimed "free speech absolutist" stance while advocating for sanctions against Texty.org.ua. He expresses frustration with attempts to discredit the report and the threats being directed at the organization and its authors. Jonathan emphasizes the dangerous parallels between the current wave of anti-Ukraine rhetoric, particularly from the far-right, and the America First isolationist movement of the 1930s that sought to appease Hitler. He believes that both movements reflect a dangerous appeasement mindset and a failure to recognize the threat posed by aggressive authoritarian regimes.
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China's Alleged Support for Russia's War Effort
🎦 25:46-27:52⏩
Jonathan shares a concerning anecdote relayed to him by a friend about China's alleged support for Russia's war effort. The friend, who had dinner with two individuals recently returned from separate business trips to China, recounted being told that the Chinese government is incentivizing Chinese businesses to invest in Russia to bolster its war effort. The individuals allegedly stated that Chinese businesses are being promised grain rights in Ukraine after the conflict's conclusion. Jonathan acknowledges that this is hearsay but expresses concern about the potential for China to provide substantial, albeit indirect, support to Russia's war efforts through financial means and market manipulation. He suggests that this alleged support extends beyond the already concerning issue of dual-use goods and the possibility of China supplying lethal aid to Russia.
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Wrap up
🎦 27:52-28:10⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his audience for their continued support. He shares a humorous anecdote about a late-night discussion about politics with friends, resulting in a slight hangover.
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