Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"We will examine the areas that will hurt Russia the most"

Hello Team🎦 00:00-00:09⏩

Jonathan and Ed welcome viewers to another ATPG video, the second part of the June 21st, 2024 Ukraine War News Update. This episode focuses on military aid and equipment.

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US prioritises Patriot Missile Interceptors for Ukraine, impacting other countries🎦 00:09-03:40⏩

• The US has decided to prioritise the delivery of Patriot missile interceptors to Ukraine, putting a hold on orders from other nations, as reported by the Financial Times.
• This prioritisation will not impact Taiwan or Israel, as confirmed by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
• While Ukraine needs the Patriot systems themselves, the immediate focus is on supplying interceptors.
• Jonathan points out the issue of backfilling - countries giving up their systems would expect replacements, effectively creating a need for new orders.
• The first delivery of these prioritised interceptors is expected in the coming weeks.

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US to send all currently produced Patriot and NASAMS missiles to Ukraine🎦 03:40-07:53⏩

• The US will transfer all Patriot and NASAMS missiles from current production to Ukraine.
• This prioritisation, expected to last 16 months, is due to lengthy production lead times for new orders.
• Ukraine will also receive newer, more capable AMRAAM missiles (likely C8), enhancing both their NASAMS and future F-16 fleets.
• Jonathan explains that air-launched AMRAAMs have a longer range than ground-launched ones due to the aircraft's altitude and speed.
• The existing order queue will resume after the 16-month prioritisation period.
• It remains unclear if Ukraine has placed an order for the Patriot system itself. Jonathan highlights the need for a direct order or backfilling from another country providing their system.
• Romania's decision to donate a Patriot system is contingent on finding a replacement, potentially causing delays.
• Jonathan questions the logic of waiting for a replacement when a direct order could be placed, suggesting a possible use of older Israeli Patriot PAC-2 systems as an interim solution for Romania.

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Norway opens new missile factory to meet increased demand🎦 07:53-10:05⏩

• Norwegian manufacturer Kongsberg Gruppen, involved in NASAMS co-production, opened a new missile factory to meet the increasing demand from Western countries supporting Ukraine.
• NATO allies are boosting their production of weapons and ammunition to aid Ukraine and replenish their own stockpiles.

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South Korea considers sending arms to Ukraine, prompting threats from Putin🎦 10:05-19:17⏩

• South Korea's emergence as a major arms supplier (potentially fifth globally) is significant for Ukraine.
• Jonathan highlights South Korea's active arms industry, driven by its ongoing conflict with North Korea.
• He praises South Korea's flexible approach to arms sales, including licensed production in buyer countries (like Poland), providing economic benefits and technological expertise.
• A senior South Korean official stated their willingness to examine areas where their support would "hurt Russia the most," signalling a clear stance.
• This shift is likely influenced by North Korea's agreement with Russia, prompting Putin to threaten South Korea against supplying arms to Ukraine.
• Jonathan believes Putin's threats will likely embolden South Korea rather than deter them, citing historical examples of Putin's actions backfiring.
• He argues that Putin's actions have strengthened NATO, accelerated infrastructure projects between Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania, and potentially pushed South Korea towards greater involvement in supporting Ukraine.
• South Korea's potential arms supply, including state-of-the-art weapons, could significantly bolster Ukraine's capabilities.
• Their manufacturing output and advanced technology, especially in artillery and missile systems, make them a valuable potential ally for Ukraine.
• South Korea will base its decision on the extent of arms supply to Ukraine on Russia's future actions regarding military technology transfer to North Korea.
• Jonathan questions the timeframe of this decision and whether South Korea will wait or begin deliveries immediately.

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Germany's Rheinmetall scales up artillery ammunition production with €8.5 billion order🎦 19:17-23:19⏩

• Germany will procure €8.5 billion worth of artillery ammunition from Rheinmetall, its largest ever single procurement.
• This move signals a shift towards larger-scale procurement, addressing the piecemeal delivery issues that have plagued European aid.
• Deliveries, starting in early 2025, will benefit Ukraine, Estonia, Denmark, and the Netherlands.
• Jonathan contrasts the US's ability to quickly scale up ammunition production due to state-owned or controlled manufacturers with Europe's slower response, hindered by private sector financial considerations.
• He argues that strategic planning and a degree of state involvement in the economy are essential for balancing national strategy and free market dynamics.
• This large order provides Rheinmetall with the long-term order assurance needed to justify scaling up production significantly.
• Jonathan speculates that Germany might be placing these orders now to capitalise on current strong support for Ukraine.

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Ukraine's drone production increases 100-fold🎦 23:19-26:47⏩

• Ukraine has increased its drone production 100-fold in just over a year, according to a Kyiv Independent report.
• This success is attributed to swift legislation, a strong tech base, and the opportunity for real-world testing.
• Jonathan highlights the importance of drones as an asymmetrical warfare tool for Ukraine, allowing them to inflict significant losses on Russian forces despite their smaller size.
• He cites a Russian source claiming Ukrainian forces have at least a six-to-one advantage in drone usage on the front lines.
• Jonathan connects this drone advantage with the ongoing efforts to ramp up artillery ammunition production in the US and Europe, aiming to close the gap with Russia in that domain.
• He emphasizes that success in the war depends not just on the current situation but on future capabilities and trends.
• Jonathan analyses the contrasting situations, noting Ukraine's growing international support from 50+ countries and the potential to overcome the current five-to-one Russian advantage in artillery.
• Russia, on the other hand, appears to be nearing its production capacity and resorting to North Korea for assistance.
• The declining number of Russian artillery shells fired daily (from 40,000-60,000 to 10,000) further points to their difficulties.
• Jonathan believes that even with artillery parity, Ukraine's more efficient and precise use of artillery can give them an edge.

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Ukraine unveils new autonomous mine-detecting drone, the ST1🎦 26:47-27:59⏩

• Ukraine has introduced the ST1, an autonomous drone capable of detecting mines.
• The ST1 can scan one hectare in four hours, significantly faster than human de-miners.
• The drone hovers 70 centimeters above ground, using dual metal detector coils for accurate scanning.
• Jonathan acknowledges the viewers who raised concerns and suggested solutions for de-mining efforts. He believes drones and AI will play a crucial role in addressing this challenge.

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Denmark co-financing German Marder IFVs for Ukraine🎦 27:59-29:05⏩

• Denmark is co-financing some of the Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) Germany is supplying to Ukraine.
• This information, confirmed by the Danish Ministry of Defence, has not been officially announced by Germany, unlike previous joint procurements.
• Germany has already delivered 120 Marders to Ukraine, a higher number than Jonathan initially realised.
• A further 20 Marders are pledged for delivery by September 24th.

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Russian Soldier Forced Back to Front Lines After Wife's Death, Daughter Sent to Orphanage🎦 29:05-30:05⏩

• Jonathan highlights a case illustrating Russia's disregard for its soldiers' well-being.
• A Russian soldier, returning from military leave after his wife's death, is sent back to the front while his daughter is placed in an orphanage.
• Jonathan criticizes the lack of compassion and the negative impact on social cohesion.

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Two Russians charged with terrorism offences in Poland for attempting to recruit for Wagner🎦 30:05-31:15⏩

• Two Russian nationals were arrested in Poland for attempting to recruit for the Wagner Group.
• The individuals were apprehended after their recruitment efforts, which involved posting stickers, were exposed on social media.
• Jonathan notes that Eastern Europe presents a complex recruitment landscape for Russia, with some areas harbouring pro-Russian sentiment or nostalgia for the Soviet era.
• He sees this recruitment drive as a sign of Russia's desperation to avoid relying solely on domestic fighters.

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Wrap up🎦 31:15-31:37⏩

• Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
• He expresses a need for a tea break after a long session of news updates.

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