Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"We came in dressed as Russian military as reinforcements for protection. The equipment looked like it was captured and then they put on blue armbands and took control of everyone." - A resident of Volgovka on Ukrainian tactics in Kursk.
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:46⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of the Ukraine War Update NEWS for 15th August 2024. He notes the high volume of information related to the war, specifically the ongoing activities in Kursk. He then introduces the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, highlighting the high number of personnel lost, possibly due to the increasing number of prisoners of war being taken.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses for 14th August
🎦 00:46-01:38⏩
Jonathan details the reported Russian losses for the 14th of August, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. These include 1220 personnel, 8 tanks, 24 troop-carrying AFVs, 47 artillery systems, 3 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 1 aircraft (which Jonathan speculates may be an Su-34), and 65 vehicles/fuel tanks.
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Ukrainian Losses for 14th August
🎦 01:38-03:59⏩
Jonathan reports Ukrainian losses for the 14th of August, noting a damaged electronic warfare station, 3 damaged Bradleys, multiple APCs lost, 3 Kozak 7s abandoned, a Cougar H and a Kozak 7 destroyed, a lost Prem 1 recovery vehicle, and several artillery pieces including a BM-21 MLRS and a 240mm self-propelled mortar. He also highlights the capture of a T-80 BVM and a T-90 tank in the Kursk region, which are being used to attack Russian forces.
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High Prisoner of War Numbers
🎦 04:17-06:30⏩
Jonathan emphasizes the high number of Russian prisoners of war being taken by Ukrainian forces, particularly in the Kursk region. He cites reports from various sources, including Tendell, which indicate a mass surrender of Russian troops. He highlights the story of 42 conscripts who have gone missing in the Kursk region since the border was breached.
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Russian Propaganda and POW Treatment
🎦 06:30-08:28⏩
Jonathan discusses the prevalent Russian propaganda that encourages soldiers to commit suicide rather than surrender, citing the case of a Russian POW who blew himself up with a grenade. He counters this narrative by sharing stories of Russian POWs who are being treated humanely by Ukrainian forces, including providing first aid, water, and cigarettes.
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Prisoner Exchange Negotiations
🎦 08:28-09:59⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine and Russia are starting negotiations on a prisoner exchange in the Kursk region, noting that over 2,000 Russian soldiers have surrendered since the beginning of the operation there. He emphasizes the significance of an "all-for-all" prisoner swap for both sides, and showcases footage of large groups of captured Russian servicemen.
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Russian Bomber Crash in Irkutsk Region
🎦 10:05-11:05⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber has crashed in the Irkutsk region, highlighting the significance of the loss for Russia. He states that the Russian Ministry of Defence has acknowledged the crash and claimed the crew survived, although he expresses uncertainty about the truth of this statement.
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Su-34 Destroyed in Kursk
🎦 11:05-12:01⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has destroyed another Su-34 aircraft in the Kursk region. He notes that there are reports of numerous aircraft losses in the region, but the evidence for these claims is not yet definitive.
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Mig-29 Loss for Ukraine
🎦 12:01-12:34⏩
Jonathan states that reports indicate the Ukrainians have also lost a Mig-29 fighter jet in recent days. He acknowledges the significance of this loss for Ukraine, but also notes that Russia appears to have suffered a considerable number of aircraft losses.
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Erroneous Footage and Friendly Fire Incidents
🎦 12:34-13:56⏩
Jonathan addresses instances of inaccurate footage, including a video claiming to show a Russian Ka-52 helicopter destroying a Ukrainian convoy in Kursk, which was later revealed to be a friendly fire incident. He shares another example of a similar incident, suggesting that the Russians have mistakenly attacked their own forces at least twice, once in the Kursk region and once in the Sujit area.
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Loss of a HIMARS System
🎦 13:56-15:54⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have claimed to destroy a second HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, presumably in the Sumy area, south of where the Ukrainian forces are attacking into Kursk. He acknowledges that the loss of HIMARS is significant, but also remarks on how few have been lost by Ukraine, despite their crucial role in the war.
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Kharkiv Attack and Airfield Targeting
🎦 15:54-16:55⏩
Jonathan shares that Russian forces have attacked an enterprise in Kharkiv, causing casualties with guided glide bombs, and have also struck the city with surface-to-air missiles. He expresses hope that Ukraine will effectively target any remaining S-300 missiles used against Kharkiv, but also emphasizes the need to stop planes from dropping guided glide bombs, which has led to increased focus on attacking airfields in recent days.
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Capture of Russian Electronic Warfare System
🎦 16:55-17:24⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces have captured a Russian Volnorez anti-drone electronic warfare system in the Kursk region. He highlights the value of this capture for Ukraine, as it provides access to advanced Russian technology and potential insights into their drone defence strategies.
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Russian Factory Fire in Moscow Region
🎦 17:24-18:44⏩
Jonathan reports a major fire at an agricultural machinery factory in the Moscow region, noting that these plants often manufacture components for tanks. He suggests that this fire may be a result of sabotage, drone strikes, or a genuine military target, emphasizing that the factory's potential military usage makes it a plausible target in a time of war.
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Ukraine's Success in Intercepting Drones
🎦 18:44-19:15⏩
Jonathan shares news of Russia firing 29 attack drones at Ukrainian territory during the night, all of which were intercepted. This is a major success for Ukraine, and he highlights the importance of their air defence capabilities. However, he notes that three guided aerial bombs did manage to hit Ukrainian territory, likely in the Kharkiv region.
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Kharkiv Bombing and S-300 Accuracy
🎦 19:15-20:02⏩
Jonathan discusses a bombing in Zolotiv, Kharkiv region, which has resulted in injuries. He questions the military nature of the target and expresses concern about the accuracy of S-300 missiles used in ground-to-ground mode, acknowledging the potential for civilian casualties due to their potential inaccuracy.
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Drone Attacks on Ukrainian Airbases
🎦 20:02-21:23⏩
Jonathan reports another long-range drone attack on Ukraine by Russia, including occasional missile strikes. He mentions explosions in Poltava and ongoing drone attacks on the Mirrod airbase. He also provides an update on the damage done to Ukrainian airbases during recent strikes, suggesting minor damage to an ammunition depot and fire trucks at the Savaslake airbase.
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Ukrainian Use of JDAMs
🎦 21:23-22:05⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's use of JDAMs to strike along the border areas, specifically targeting Tekino and Shevukino, both of which have been targeted by Russian forces in previous cross-border raids.
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Kursk Update and Rostov-on-Don Submarine
🎦 22:05-22:40⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions a separate Kursk update coming up and then delves into the Russian's construction of a full-scale model of the Rostov-on-Don submarine that was recently sunk by Ukrainian forces. He acknowledges the mock-up's intention but suggests that Ukraine is likely aware of it and unlikely to expend resources destroying it.
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Evacuations in Belgorod and Russian Troop Movements
🎦 22:40-23:15⏩
Jonathan reports on multiple evacuees arriving in Stavropol, highlighting the ongoing evacuations from Belgorod. He notes that another district in Belgorod was ordered to be cleared overnight, raising questions about whether Russia believes Ukraine will attack Belgorod from Kharkiv.
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Refuseniks and Ghost Soldiers
🎦 23:15-26:38⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that hundreds of Russian soldiers have refused to fight for various reasons and have been taken from a military base to Kursk. He notes that this isn't the first time this has happened, and explains that these "refuseniks" are often deemed unfit to fight due to age, illness, or mental health. He highlights the potential for these men to become "ghost soldiers," as Russia may not register their deaths or pay compensation for them, thus concealing their losses. He also mentions a previous thread about similar incidents involving convict soldiers, and shares several poignant stories from relatives of the refuseniks about their fears and the lack of support provided to these men.
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Russian Railway Collapse and Locomotive Shortage
🎦 26:38-29:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing railway collapse in regions bordering Ukraine and Belarus, attributed to the Ukrainian Armed Forces invasion of Kursk. He explains how the Ukrainian strikes on Sudia have been crucial in disrupting Russian railway logistics. He also delves into the reasons behind the locomotive shortage, including the use of available locomotives for troop movements and evacuations, overcrowding of stations with abandoned trains, and a lack of drivers and staff, which stems from poor repair quality, lack of spare parts, and low wages.
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Ukraine's Aid Offer to Kursk Oblast
🎦 29:51-30:59⏩
Jonathan shares that Ukraine has opened a hotline for Russian citizens in Kursk Oblast who wish to receive humanitarian aid or evacuation to Ukraine. He notes the Ukrainian efforts to help those in the region despite the ongoing fighting.
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Donbass Situation and Ukrainian Withdrawal
🎦 30:59-32:24⏩
Jonathan acknowledges the difficult situation for Ukraine in Donbass but expresses hope that their forces are strategically withdrawing to prepared defensive lines around Prokrosk. He emphasizes that Ukraine's lack of air defence capabilities makes this a necessary course of action. He also criticizes the overreaction to claims of Donetsk falling, arguing that Russia lacks the strength to break through the Ukrainian defensive lines.
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Perfidy and the Rules of War
🎦 32:24-35:18⏩
Jonathan delves into the issue of perfidy, a war crime involving deception, specifically the alleged practice of Ukrainian forces disguising themselves as Russian soldiers to occupy new settlements. He acknowledges the inherent conflict in his own feelings toward this strategy: while he finds it clever, he also recognizes that it violates the rules of war. He encourages viewers to share their thoughts on the topic and the complexities of rules and morality in warfare.
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Wrap up
🎦 35:18-35:34⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and promises a shorter Kursk update soon.
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