Ukraine War Update: Kursk Attack News & Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"As they say in the army, if you want to defeat Russia, declare war and it will F itself up with inspections."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers from his holiday location, reminding them of the unusual time zone. He begins by highlighting the significance of evacuations in Belgorod, suggesting Russia fears further Ukrainian advances into Kursk.
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Russian Troop Shortages and Ukrainian POWs
🎦 00:29-04:12⏩
- Russia is sending ill-prepared troops to Kursk, including Refuseniks (draft dodgers) and those deemed unfit for service.
- Jonathan highlights reports of desertions among Russian conscripts in Kursk, indicating low morale.
- Ukraine's capture of a significant number of Russian POWs (Prisoners of War). Some reports suggest 2,000 have been captured. Jonathan notes this will be a valuable bargaining chip for prisoner exchanges.
Impact on Russian Infrastructure
🎦 05:40-06:36⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of the Kursk offensive on Russian infrastructure, particularly railway logistics. He highlights the strain on rail networks due to troop movements, evacuations, and Ukrainian targeting, referencing analysis by "Prune 60" on Twitter. This suggests a broader strategic impact beyond territorial gains.
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Ukrainian Tactics and Perfidy
🎦 06:36-07:32⏩
- Jonathan discusses reports of Ukrainians using captured Russian uniforms and equipment. He notes that while this tactic is effective, it constitutes "perfidy" under the laws of war and is therefore prohibited.
Mapping the Kursk Offensive
🎦 07:32-10:14⏩
- Analysis of maps from 'Suriat Maps' and 'Andrew Perpetua'.
- Ukrainians consolidating gains around Sudzha.
- Russians potentially retaking territory near Bolitsia.
- Discrepancies between different map sources highlight the fog of war.
Conflicting Claims of Advance
🎦 10:14-11:06⏩
Jonathan picks apart conflicting claims about the pace of the Ukrainian advance. A Ukrainian general claims a 1.5km gain, which Jonathan finds modest. He notes that Andrew Perpetua maps show more significant consolidation of 8.25km. The varying reports highlight the challenges in getting accurate battlefield assessments.
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Zelensky's Confirmation and Media Reports
🎦 11:06-12:15⏩
- Zelensky has publicly confirmed the full capture of Sudzha, though Jonathan questions whether surrounding areas are also secured.
- German tabloid BILT reports Ukrainian forces have advanced 3km east of Sudzha and now control Myrna, Bondarivka, and Mikhailivka. Jonathan considers this a "pretty decent gain."
Andrew Perpetua's Commentary
🎦 12:15-13:45⏩
Jonathan highlights a pointed comment from military analyst Andrew Perpetua, who criticises those who initially downplayed Ukraine's successes in Kursk based on Russian propaganda. Perpetua, known for his cautious stance, now acknowledges Ukraine's progress in bringing artillery fire to areas previously believed to be under Russian control. Jonathan suggests this indicates a more substantial Ukrainian advance than many anticipated.
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Challenger 2 Tanks Deployed
🎦 20:19-21:08⏩
- Sky News reports that British-supplied Challenger 2 tanks are being used in Kursk. This is significant because it suggests a more aggressive use of Western equipment.
- Jonathan mentions an unconfirmed report of a Challenger 2 being destroyed, but he dismisses it as unreliable.
Ukraine Establishes Military Commandant's Office
🎦 22:18-23:17⏩
In a remarkable development, Ukraine has established a military commandant's office in captured Kursk territory. The stated aim is to "maintain law and order" and address the needs of the local population. Jonathan notes this contrasts with Russian complaints of government neglect in the region. It also serves as a powerful message that Ukrainians are not there to harm civilians, highlighting the moral contrast between the two sides. Major General Edward Moskaliov is appointed head of the office.
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Analysis of Logistics and Supply Lines
🎦 23:17-25:50⏩
- Jonathan discusses the impact of the offensive on Russian logistics, referencing analysis from 'Intel Schizo' on Twitter.
- Key logistics hubs for Russian forces: Kursk, Belgorod (primary), Orel, Voronezh, Stary Oskol (secondary).
- Analysis of road and rail networks, with Ukrainian drone strikes likely targeting these routes. Jonathan suggests bridges are a higher priority than rail lines, as they are more difficult to repair.
Ukrainian Probing Attacks and Russian Responses
🎦 26:06-27:13⏩
Jonathan cites analysis from military blogger 'Two Majors,' who describes Ukrainian tactics in Kursk:
- Small unit probes to exploit gaps between Russian formations.
- Withdrawal if Russia responds with overwhelming force; advance and reinforcement if met with weak resistance.
- This approach effectively exploits communication issues and coordination problems within the Russian military.
Mick Ryan on the Battle of Wills
🎦 27:13-27:57⏩
- Retired Australian General Mick Ryan emphasizes that both sides are under significant strain, with Ukraine simultaneously conducting a defensive campaign in Donbas.
- He suggests the outcome may hinge on "who blinks first" - recognizing unsustainable losses versus potential gains.
- Ryan links this to Clausewitz's concept of a "battle of wills", where psychological and political factors play a decisive role.
Zelensky: "Ukraine Fights by the Rules"
🎦 27:57-31:56⏩
Jonathan delves into Zelensky's recent statement: "It's important that Ukraine fights by the rules." He explores the strategic, diplomatic, and moral implications of this approach, particularly in the context of the Kursk operation:
- Ukraine's adherence to international law starkly contrasts with Russia's documented war crimes.
- This moral high ground bolsters Ukraine's international support and legitimacy.
- Conversely, Russia's brutality undermines its own cause and alienates potential allies.
- Jonathan highlights the psychological impact on Ukrainian soldiers, suggesting that fighting ethically helps to preserve their "souls" - a concept that resonates with Clausewitz's emphasis on the moral dimension of warfare.
Russian Officer Explains Ukraine's Success
🎦 32:00-35:29⏩
Jonathan cites an interview published in Russian media outlet 'Interesting Stories'. The interviewee, a former Russian army officer opposed to the war, provides insights into Ukraine's successful incursion into Kursk:
- He confirms that raids by the 'Russian Volunteer Corps' and 'Freedom of Russia Legion' (groups fighting for Ukraine) beginning in March 2024 served as intelligence gathering operations to assess Russian defenses and response capabilities.
- He criticizes the lack of preparedness and complacency within the Russian military:
- Minimal improvements to border defenses despite allocated funds (suggesting corruption).
- Dismissive attitude from high command towards warnings.
- Poorly equipped conscripts with low morale.
- Slow and inadequate responses to Ukrainian probes, allowing for rapid advances.
- Logistical blunders, like the convoy destroyed by HIMARS, highlighting incompetent command decisions.
- The officer doubts Ukraine will push much further, fearing encirclement if Russia effectively deploys reserves.
- He expresses a cynical view that the Russian government will disregard the plight of civilians in Kursk, viewing them as expendable.
Wrap up
🎦 35:29-37:00⏩
Jonathan summarises the situation: Ukraine's offensive continues, probing for weaknesses. He speculates that Koronevo might be a key objective, but questions whether larger towns like Lugov or Rilsk are realistic targets. He reminds viewers of the inherent risks of overextension and the importance of maintaining secure supply lines. Jonathan ends by acknowledging the uncertain future of the offensive and signs off.
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