Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"These are the things that Russia is losing on a daily basis. And these are verified, confirmed losses in a cross-region 5-1. Yeah, they are taking rubbleised settlements whoop-de-doo well done russia you have sacrificed how many people to do that and how many tanks to do that and what does that say about your ability to do that next year when you are you 50 percent of the artillery ammunition you are using is coming from north korea you are in a desperate situation things are not looking good for the russians"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATPG, apologising for the later than usual upload as it's Saturday afternoon.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
05/10/2024 Ukrainian General Staff Daily Losses - Russia
🎦 00:18-03:49⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff for 05/10/2024. The figures are high across all categories.
- Personnel: 1250 (high)
- Tanks: 3 (lower than average)
- Troop carrying AFVs: 21 (high)
- Artillery systems: 55 (very high - over 3 times the daily average)
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 101 (almost a record loss)
- Special equipment: 19 (very high)
Jonathan observes that the loss of 101 vehicles and fuel tanks may be down to the increasing use of civilian vehicles (e.g. motorcycles and golf buggies) by Russian forces. The reported loss of 99 pieces of special equipment on a previous day has skewed the data, although a loss of 19 is still significant given that the daily average is 3.52. Data is from Dell.
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Andrew Perpetua 03/10/2024 Losses - Ukraine and Russia
🎦 03:49-07:49⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses for Ukraine and Russia for 03/10/2024 from military analyst Andrew Perpetua. The overall loss ratio is 5:1 in favour of Ukraine, with the combat asset loss ratio at 2:1. Ukrainian losses:
- 1 x Leopard 1A5 (damaged)
- Several APCs including Striker, Humvee, Senator, Kirpi
- Civilian vehicles
Russian losses:
- Large number of civilian vehicles including motorcycles (motorcycle massacre)
- 1 x Tor M1 (air defence system - damaged)
- 2 x 2S1 Gvozdika (damaged)
- several BM-21 Grad (destroyed)
- 1 x T-90 (destroyed)
- 1 x T-90M (abandoned and hit by FPV drone)
- Several other tanks (destroyed)
- 12 x Infantry fighting vehicles (destroyed/abandoned)
Jonathan notes that the high number of civilian vehicle losses suggests that Russian forces are increasingly reliant on them and questions why this might be the case. He speculates that it may be due to equipment shortages or a tactical advantage although he is unsure.
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Andrew Perpetua 04/10/2024 Losses - Ukraine and Russia
🎦 07:49-12:31⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua for Ukraine and Russia for 04/10/2024. Ukrainian losses are insignificant, however, Russian losses are significant, with a large number of civilian vehicles again being reported. Of note is the loss of a 96L6 TSP Radar (associated with the S-400 air defence system) to a US-provided Switchblade loitering munition. The overall loss ratio is around 3:1 in favour of Ukraine. Ukrainian losses:
- Several Starlink terminals
- AN/TPQ-50 (counter-battery radar) - Jonathan reassures viewers that this is a small piece of equipment and not a high-value asset.
- 1 x Barge (damaged)
- 1 x Boat
- Several artillery pieces
- Several tanks (damaged)
- Several infantry fighting vehicles (damaged)
- Several Bradley IFVs
- Several FPV drones
- Several APCs and MRAPS
Russian Losses:
- Civilian vehicles (including motorcycles, trucks, ATVs, quads, buggies)
- Surveillance and comms equipment
- 1 x 96L6 TSP Radar (damaged) - associated with the S-400 air defence system.
- 1 x IMR-2 (engineering vehicle)
- Several artillery pieces including 2S4 Tyulpan (self-propelled mortar)
- 8 x Tanks (destroyed/abandoned)
- 10 x Infantry fighting vehicles (destroyed/abandoned)
Andrew Perpetua 05/10/2024 Losses - Ukraine and Russia
🎦 12:31-14:41⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua for Ukraine and Russia for 05/10/2024. Whilst fewer items were destroyed on this day, there were still significant losses for Russia, with the combat asset loss ratio at 1.5:1 or 2:1. The overall loss ratio is 3:1. Ukrainian Losses:
- Humvees, Senators, MTLBs (destroyed/damaged)
- Trees (claimed as howitzers and mortars by Russia)
- 1 x TRL-4D radar decoy
Russian Losses:
- Civilian vehicles (including Ladas, motorcycles)
- 4 x Air defence systems (destroyed) including a Strela-10, Buk-M3 and 2 x Buk-M1/M1-2s.
- 1 x S-70 Okhotnik-B (stealth drone - destroyed)
- Several artillery pieces
- Several tanks
- Several infantry fighting vehicles and APCs (virtually all destroyed/abandoned)
- Several trucks
- Several ATVs
Jonathan highlights that Russia lost a high-value S-70 drone and 4 air defence systems on this day. He is impressed by the scale of the S-70 having seen imagery of the wreckage.
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Andrew Perpetua: Verified Personnel Losses Update
🎦 14:41-19:07⏩
Jonathan provides an update on verified Russian personnel losses from Andrew Perpetua's database. The average daily loss is 100-150. When he first started tracking this several months ago the average was around 60 per day - Jonathan believes the lower figure at that time to be an outlier. Key points:
- This is a significant minimum number and does not include losses from strikes on Russian bases, command centres, or those killed inside tanks/vehicles.
- It equates to 34,000 Russian soldiers killed per year, 0.1% of the Russian male population of fighting age.
- It represents 1.3% of the Russian forces that they are willing to expend on the war.
Jonathan compares these figures to the Ukrainian General Staff's claim of 1250 killed, wounded or captured. He speculates that of the 1250, a smaller number will be those confirmed killed, and an even smaller number will have been captured on video by Andrew Perpetua and his team.
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Analysis: Russian Equipment and Personnel Losses in Context
🎦 19:07-25:31⏩
Jonathan analyses the ratio of equipment losses in the Prokrosk area. He notes that the ratio appears to be closing (previously 5:1 in favour of Ukraine, now 3.5:1). Jonathan speculates that this may be because Ukraine is on the offensive in this area (and therefore losing more equipment) or because Russia has fewer resources. He wonders whether the increased use of civilian vehicles by Russian forces is skewing these figures as they may not be included in loss counts, and questions how reliable the equipment loss data is. Jonathan draws attention to analysis by George Barros (Institute for the Study of War) who reports that Russia has lost a huge number of vehicles in exchange for small territorial gains - the equivalent of a tank division's worth of tanks, and 4-5 mechanised divisions worth of infantry fighting vehicles and APCs in exchange for 30km in the past 8 months. Jonathan highlights that these losses are unsustainable. He references data from Roman Sheremeta which states that Russia has only taken 0.1% of Ukrainian territory in the past year. At this rate, it would take Russia 800 years and a further 2.4bn soldiers to take the rest of Ukraine (impossible of course). Jonathan acknowledges that Ukrainian losses are high, however, Russian losses are far higher. He believes that the Ukrainians are doing a good job of inflicting losses on the Russian military, who are performing badly. Jonathan shows footage of a Russian T-72 and T-90 tank being destroyed in huge explosions.
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Ukrainian Ram Drone Destroys Russian Buk Air Defence Systems
🎦 25:31-27:34⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian Ram kamikaze drone (a fixed-wing, loitering munition similar to the Lancet) destroying two Russian Buk-M1 and M3 air defence systems. The footage is likely the source for two of the visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua's 05/10/2024 update.
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Downing of Russian S-70 Drone - Ministry of Defence of Russia
🎦 27:34-28:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the loss of the Russian S-70 drone, initially believed to have been a Su-25. Russian propagandist Romanav claims that Russian forces lost control of the drone and shot it down to prevent it being captured and its technology being copied for the Su-57. Jonathan questions this version of events, given that a Su-57 (a stealth fighter rarely seen in this conflict) was used to shoot it down. He suspects that the Su-57 is not as capable as Russia claims and that this explains why they are rarely used.
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NYT: Analysis of Ukrainian 'Trading Space for Russian Losses' Strategy
🎦 28:18-34:30⏩
Jonathan discusses a New York Times article that analyses Ukraine's strategy of 'trading space for Russian losses'. Jonathan is pleased to see more balanced coverage from a mainstream media outlet, rather than the overly negative reporting often seen. He summarises the key points from the article:
- Ukraine's strategy is one of attrition. They are deliberately ceding territory to Russia but at a high cost.
- Russia has a significant advantage in terms of manpower and equipment.
- Ukraine is forced to make difficult decisions about where to commit its limited resources.
- Ukraine hopes that they will be able to inflict sufficient losses on Russian forces to make the war unsustainable for Russia.
- Russia is showing no signs of giving up despite evidence that their losses are unsustainable.
Jonathan highlights the importance of asymmetry in warfare, citing Ukraine's use of drones as a prime example: they are able to leverage advantages in this area to inflict losses on the Russians. He expands on this by explaining how Ukraine is forced to mitigate its lack of artillery ammunition by having better target acquisition and by using more modern, accurate and better-maintained equipment. Jonathan believes that this is the correct strategy for Ukraine, but is frustrated by the lack of support (or restrictions on the use of equipment) from Western allies.
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Russian Strike on Civilian Bus in Kherson
🎦 34:30-35:26⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Russian FPV drone dropping an explosive on a civilian bus in Kherson. 20 civilians were on board but thankfully, no one was injured. Jonathan highlights that this is a war crime and that Brendan Kelly from Torchie has been documenting this type of incident in the Kherson region.
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Overnight Missile and Drone Attacks (05-06/10/2024) - Ukraine
🎦 35:26-38:08⏩
Jonathan provides details of overnight Russian missile and drone attacks:
- 87 Shahed drones were launched, 56 were shot down, 25 were disabled by electronic warfare and 6 hit their targets.
- 4 Missiles (Kh-59/69) were launched, 2 of which were shot down.
Jonathan shares an update from Stephen Bendel (who is currently in Kyiv) who experienced more than 11 air raid sirens overnight but no explosions. He notes how draining this must be for the population who are constantly being woken up, particularly in areas that are targeted regularly such as Kyiv. Jonathan highlights that Odessa was targeted by Shaheds overnight, with damage to warehouses and trucks being reported, and one civilian seriously injured.
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Drone Strike - Moscow, Russia
🎦 38:08-38:08⏩
Jonathan reports on a drone strike in Kuzminki, Moscow. Explosions and gunfire were heard near the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School, a military facility.
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Storm Shadow Strikes - Ukraine
🎦 38:08-39:27⏩
Jonathan reports that Storm Shadow missiles were used by Ukrainian forces to hit 3 command posts. The footage isn't clear and it's difficult to tell if the strikes were significant or not. Jonathan believes that the use of these missiles suggests the target must have been high value.
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Russia: Use of New Drone Types
🎦 39:27-40:06⏩
Roblie from Pravda reports that Russia is using a wider variety of drones, not just Shaheds. This follows comments from Yuri Ikhnat after the air battle of 04-05/10/2024 when only 3 out of 13 drones shot down were identified as Shaheds. Jonathan questions whether this is due to a shortage of Shaheds or whether it represents a tactical change.
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Zelensky: Need to Strike Russian Airfields
🎦 40:06-42:49⏩
Jonathan highlights the need to strike Russian airfields, referencing a statement from Zelensky: "every destroyed base of the Russian military, every destroyed base of Russian aircraft, every destroyed warehouse with bombs means saving the lives of Ukrainians." He believes that it is only a matter of time before Ukraine launches long-range strikes on Russian territory using weapons they have developed such as the Neptune anti-ship missile or Palantir Sierra drone.
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Russian Z-Blogger 13th Arrested
🎦 42:49-43:42⏩
Russian Z-blogger 13th (Yehor Guzenko) has been arrested. He was previously arrested for assault and for criticising the Russian government and military.
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Analysis: Usefulness of Z-Bloggers
🎦 43:42-44:05⏩
Jonathan feels that despite Z-bloggers being overtly pro-Russian, they can sometimes provide useful insights into the conflict and the thinking within Russia. He cites Igor Girkin (Strelkov) as an example, who was also arrested for criticising the Russian government.
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Russia: Preparing for Renewed Offensive - Zaporizhzhia Oblast
🎦 44:05-45:44⏩
According to Uran, Russia is preparing to launch a new offensive in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast focusing on Orikiv and Robotyne.
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Ukraine: Defensive Preparations Around Prokrosk
🎦 45:44-48:30⏩
Jonathan shares imagery from an unnamed source that shows Ukrainian defensive fortifications being built around Prokrosk. The Ukrainians appear to be better prepared than they were in Avdiivka.
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Ukraine: Preparing for 2025 Counter-Offensive?
🎦 48:30-49:28⏩
Jonathan believes that Ukraine may be preparing for a counter-offensive in 2025, based on reports that they have been training new brigades and are stockpiling Western equipment. He speculates that this may explain why Ukraine is deliberately ceding territory, choosing instead to focus on inflicting heavy casualties. Jonathan highlights that this approach will require the US and UK to relax its restrictions on striking targets within Russia.
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Rebar Removed From Twitter
🎦 49:28-50:51⏩
Jonathan reports that the pro-Russian Telegram channel Rebar has been removed from Twitter, speculating that this is part of a wider crackdown on Russian disinformation and likely a result of sanctions. He notes that other platforms have also taken steps to restrict Russian disinformation, citing YouTube and Telegram as examples.
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Russia: VK (VKontakte) Announces Layoffs
🎦 50:51-50:51⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian social media company VK has been forced to make mass layoffs. The Moscow Times has speculated that this is as a result of sanctions.
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Russia: Rossiya Airlines Introduces 'Snitching' Policy
🎦 50:51-50:57⏩
Jonathan reports that Rossiya Airlines has instructed its employees to report colleagues who criticize the war in Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 50:57-50:57⏩
Jonathan ends the video.
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