Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia isn't picking these bodies up like russia doesn't care about these people it's a whole road of dead russian soldiers"
## Transcript Summary
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan greets his viewers, mentioning his sons' cancelled football match and expressing relief at having a moment to record. He acknowledges the video is being released later than usual.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff's Russian Loss Figures
🎦 00:27-02:54⏩
Jonathan delves into the Ukrainian General Staff's latest figures on Russian losses, noting significant losses across several categories, including 1,210 personnel, 13 tanks, 43 armoured vehicles and 36 artillery systems. He highlights the continued impact of the Kharkiv offensive and observes a shift towards the use of smaller vehicles like Bukankas due to drone and artillery threats.
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Analysing Visually Confirmed Losses With Andrew Perpetua
🎦 02:54-09:04⏩
Transitioning to visually confirmed losses, Jonathan analyses footage from Andrew Perpetua. He notes a concerning trend of increased Ukrainian equipment losses, including a damaged Panzerhaubitze 2000, since the start of the intensified Russian offensive in Kharkiv. He observes a higher proportion of destroyed and abandoned Russian equipment, impacting their ability to conduct large-scale mechanised assaults. Jonathan reiterates the importance of a loss ratio exceeding 3:1 in favour of Ukraine for sustained success.
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The Human Cost of War: A Road of Dead Russian Soldiers
🎦 09:04-13:40⏩
Jonathan discusses a video shared by Anton Gerashchenko depicting a road strewn with dead Russian soldiers. He emphasises the video's power in conveying the war's human cost, urging viewers to consider the complex factors that lead individuals to fight, often manipulated by propaganda and disinformation. He condemns the Kremlin for its role in sacrificing its own people for a "malignant" cause. Jonathan highlights the lack of care shown by the Russian government towards its fallen soldiers, left abandoned and unaccounted for. He speculates that widespread awareness of these casualties within Russia could significantly alter public perception of the war.
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Addressing Viewer Concerns About Ukrainian Losses
🎦 13:40-17:05⏩
Jonathan addresses frequent viewer comments questioning his focus on Russian losses and perceived bias against providing Ukrainian casualty figures. He reiterates that reliable sources for Ukrainian losses are scarce, unlike the more readily available visual confirmations of Russian equipment losses. He criticises Russian MOD claims as blatant fabrications while acknowledging the limitations of relying solely on visually confirmed losses for a complete picture of Ukrainian casualties.
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Examining Russian Claims and the Importance of Accurate Information
🎦 17:05-17:05⏩
Jonathan analyses a specific Russian MOD claim, highlighting its absurdity and urging caution against accepting Russian claims at face value. He emphasises the importance of relying on credible and verifiable sources, especially in the face of widespread disinformation.
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Damaged Panzerhaubitze 2000: Assessing the Impact
🎦 17:05-18:12⏩
Jonathan delves into the incident of a damaged Panzerhaubitze 2000, a German-supplied self-propelled howitzer, attributing it to a Russian loitering munition. He discusses the howitzer's significance as a high-value target for Russia and expresses uncertainty over its potential recovery and future use by Ukrainian forces. He highlights the limited number of these howitzers supplied to Ukraine, further emphasising their strategic importance.
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Ukrainian Innovation: Drones Equipped with Machine Guns
🎦 18:12-19:03⏩
Jonathan showcases footage of a Ukrainian drone modified to carry and fire a machine gun, highlighting this innovation's potential impact on the battlefield. He notes the challenges associated with operating such a weapon system, particularly managing the gun's recoil, but underscores its effectiveness when employed correctly.
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Failed Russian Riverine Assault: A "Suicidal" Endeavour
🎦 19:03-20:26⏩
Jonathan describes a failed Russian attempt to assault the Ukrainian-held island of Nastriha in the Dnipro River delta near Kherson. He characterises the nighttime operation, involving two assault boats and over 15 soldiers, as "suicidal" due to its vulnerability to detection and attack. He highlights the Ukrainians' successful interception and destruction of the Russian boats, showcasing the difficulties of executing surprise attacks in the current operational environment.
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UK Intelligence Update: Degradation of Russian Air Defences in Crimea
🎦 20:26-23:43⏩
Jonathan presents a UK Intelligence update on the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes against Russian air defence systems in Crimea. He notes the successful targeting of the S-400 air defence system and radar sites at Belbek Airfield for the fourth time in a month, significantly degrading Russia's ability to defend Crimean airspace. He explains the "snowball effect" of these strikes, enabling Ukraine to target other high-value assets in Crimea with increased impunity, such as Sevastopol and Russian ships stationed there. Jonathan postulates that Russia faces a dilemma: reinforce Crimea's defences at the expense of weakening other areas or accept Crimea's vulnerability to further Ukrainian strikes. This highlights the strategic challenges Russia faces as its resources are stretched thin across multiple fronts.
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Fires and Explosions Across Russia: Airports, Shopping Centres and Military Facilities
🎦 23:43-26:07⏩
Jonathan covers several incidents within Russia, including a fire at Mineralnyi Vody Airport in the Stavropol region and another at a shopping centre in Chelyabinsk, resulting in one fatality. He suggests a possible connection between these events and Ukraine's recent large-scale drone attack.
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Russian Drone Attack Intercepted and Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Targeted
🎦 26:07-26:07⏩
Jonathan reports that all 13 Russian drones launched into Ukraine were successfully shot down, indicating the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences. However, he notes a recent trend of limited information regarding Russian strikes, suggesting a deliberate tightening of operational security (OPSEC) by Ukrainian authorities. He confirms Russian strikes on two Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities, one in Poltava, which likely caused significant damage.
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Kharkiv Hit by Heavy Bombardment
🎦 26:07-27:54⏩
Jonathan details the aftermath of a significant Russian bombardment of Kharkiv, reporting at least two fatalities, numerous injuries, and widespread destruction. He observes that the timing of the attack suggests a retaliatory measure following Ukraine's recent drone offensive. Jonathan also comments on the careful blurring of images released by Ukrainian authorities, demonstrating adherence to OPSEC protocols.
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Missile Strike North of Odessa
🎦 27:54-29:39⏩
Jonathan analyses a missile strike that occurred north of Odessa, near Kolodna Balka, speculating that it targeted warehouses but acknowledging a lack of official confirmation. He links this attack to Russia's retaliatory actions and notes the significant damage inflicted. Images and footage suggest a possible strike on a "Posture" warehouse, which may not have contained military equipment as claimed by Russian sources.
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Shelling in Kherson: A City Under Constant Fire
🎦 29:39-30:24⏩
Jonathan reports on the ongoing shelling of Kherson, highlighting the devastating impact on civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, a school, farming enterprises, and gas pipelines. He draws attention to the extensive damage caused by large craters, indicating the use of powerful munitions.
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Explosion at Budanoi Communications Academy in St. Petersburg
🎦 30:24-31:09⏩
Jonathan shares news of an explosion at the Budanoi Communications Academy in St. Petersburg, resulting in injuries. While Russian media attributed the incident to a drone attack, he finds it notable given its location and the potential use of drones during daylight hours.
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Overnight Ukrainian Strikes Target Novorossiysk and Skadovsk
🎦 31:09-32:20⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian strikes overnight, including a drone attack on Novorossiysk targeting a major electrical substation, causing power outages for thousands of residents. Additionally, he mentions explosions in Okupy Skadovsk, likely from Ukrainian Storm Shadow or Scalp cruise missiles, which targeted administrative buildings. He points out Skadovsk's strategic significance as a military hub in the Kherson region.
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Further Details Emerge on the Drone Attack on Novorossiysk
🎦 32:20-35:47⏩
Jonathan provides further analysis of the drone attack on Novorossiysk, showcasing NASA's FIRMS data revealing a large fire at the port complex. He examines the drones' flight path and discusses the attack's impact, noting a lack of information regarding strikes on military ships. He then focuses on the strike on the Tuapse oil refinery, revealing that it had just resumed operations after three months of repairs following a previous drone attack. The recent attack forced another shutdown, highlighting the vulnerability of Russian energy infrastructure and Ukraine's strategy of targeting critical facilities. Jonathan discusses the targeting of another fuel depot in the Rostov region, highlighting that Ukrainian strikes may be more numerous than reported, even if they don't always succeed. He speculates that the Ukrainians are carefully selecting specific areas within these large facilities to inflict maximum damage or disruption.
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Analysing Footage and Tactics of the Drone Swarm Attack
🎦 35:47-39:18⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of the drone swarm attack, revealing the drones flying in a continuous column along the same flight path, suggesting a deliberate tactic to exhaust Russian air defences rather than overwhelming them simultaneously. He supports his analysis by referring to footage of a Ukrainian drone unit with a large number of drones prepped for launch, indicating a strategy of launching multiple drones sequentially from a single location.
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Satellite Images Reveal Extensive Damage at Belbek Air Base
🎦 39:18-40:13⏩
Jonathan presents satellite images of Belbek Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, revealing the aftermath of eight Ukrainian strikes. The images highlight the destruction of a massive aircraft fuel depot with a capacity of 500,000 tons. He underscores the strategic significance of this attack, suggesting it could cripple Belbeck's operational capacity by disrupting fuel supplies and limiting Russian air operations.
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Zelensky Highlights Ukraine's Urgent Need for Air Defence Capabilities
🎦 40:13-43:48⏩
Jonathan cites President Zelensky's statement that Ukraine possesses only 20% of the required air defence capabilities, underscoring the country's urgent need for more systems to counter Russian attacks. He also notes Zelensky's frustration with the West's hesitancy to provide certain weapons systems, fearing potential escalation and a decisive Russian defeat, highlighting a strategic dilemma faced by Ukraine's allies. Jonathan further reveals that the US may be limiting intelligence sharing regarding targets inside Russia, potentially explaining the lack of Ukrainian strikes on certain Russian assets. He questions the US's stance on escalation, especially concerning intelligence sharing.
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Ukraine Requests US Intelligence on Targets Inside Russia
🎦 43:48-49:26⏩
Jonathan discusses media reports indicating that Ukraine has requested intelligence from the US regarding targets within Russia. He expresses surprise at the US's reported reluctance to provide this information, fearing escalation, and contrasts this stance with Garry Kasparov's criticism of the US's "homicidal stupidity." He questions the limits of the "battlefield" as defined by the US, highlighting the ambiguity surrounding the use of Western-supplied weapons and the potential limitations placed on Ukraine's ability to respond to Russian aggression.
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Debating the US Position on Strikes Inside Russia: Ambiguity and Interpretation
🎦 49:26-52:57⏩
Jonathan revisits the debate surrounding the US's stance on Ukraine targeting sites within Russia, particularly following statements by US officials like Antony Blinken. He analyses the careful wording of these statements, noting their ambiguity and open interpretations regarding permissible use of supplied weapons. He presents various perspectives on the matter, some arguing for a strict interpretation prohibiting attacks within Russia, while others see room for flexibility. Jonathan highlights the lack of clarity and potential for misunderstanding, emphasising the need for clearer communication from US officials.
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Starlink Outage During Russian Attack: Coincidence or Electronic Warfare?
🎦 52:57-53:02⏩
Jonathan revisits the Starlink outage that coincided with a major Russian offensive, speculating on potential causes ranging from electronic warfare to an unfortunate coincidence involving solar flares disrupting satellite communications. He highlights the vulnerability of reliant systems and the potential impact such outages can have on the battlefield.
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Ukrainian Defence Minister Calls for More Weapons
🎦 53:02-53:02⏩
Jonathan shares the Ukrainian Defence Minister's statement that despite holding their ground against Russian offensives, Ukrainian forces are in dire need of more weapons and ammunition, particularly air defence systems, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers. This underscores the ongoing material needs of Ukraine to resist Russian aggression effectively.
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Conflicting Reports on the Status of Robotyne Village
🎦 53:02-54:01⏩
Jonathan addresses conflicting claims regarding the status of Robotyne village, a strategically important location in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. He contrasts reporting from BILD analyst Julian Röpke, who claimed Russian forces had captured the village, with information from a Ukrainian officer on the front lines who refuted this claim, providing evidence to the contrary. This underscores the importance of carefully evaluating information from various sources, especially in the fog of war.
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Usyk's Powerful Message of Ukrainian Resistance
🎦 54:01-54:09⏩
Jonathan shifts to a lighter topic, discussing the upcoming boxing match between Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury. He highlights the significance of Usyk wearing an embroidered portrait of a Ukrainian soldier executed by Russian forces for saying "Glory to Ukraine," applauding the powerful message of resistance it conveys. He expresses his support for Usyk, a Ukrainian boxer, in the upcoming fight.
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Wrap Up
🎦 54:09-54:12⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for watching and encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share. He apologises for the extended length of the update and bids farewell.
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