Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"It's a horrific calculus isn't it when you are having to uh talk about the death of people in exchange for more deaths of other people"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:15⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to his latest Ukraine War Frontline Update for 26/01/2024. Jonathan reminds viewers that the key for the maps he uses in the video is available to view. Jonathan also lets his viewers know that his next video will be about US Politics and Donald Trump's recent speech.

Return to top⤴️

📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front Line Update

🎦 00:15-03:16⏩

Jonathan reports that there has been no change to the front line from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna. However, Jonathan highlights a report from The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that Russian forces continue to conduct attacks with infantry groups of up to 20 personnel with unspecified mechanised support in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions. The ISW also report that the intensity of Russian artillery fire in the area has almost doubled in the past day. Ukrainian sources state that Russian forces are rotating their personnel on an almost weekly basis, however there is no noticeable increase in the number of Russian personnel in the area. Jonathan expresses concern over the reported rotations as this indicates that Russia may have enough troops to rotate which could indicate that Russia has a larger reserve of troops than previously thought and that the rate of attrition is lower than previously thought. Jonathan highlights a report that Ukrainian minefields are complicating Russian offensive operations near Bilohorivka. Jonathan points out minor Ukrainian gains as per DeepStateMap on the way towards Yampolivka. Jonathan highlights gains made by Russian forces to the north and northeast of Kreminna.

Return to top⤴️

Kreminna: Svesky Donetsk River Challenges

🎦 03:16-04:44⏩

Jonathan analyses the challenges Russian forces face in the Svesky Donetsk River area near Kreminna. Jonathan explains that the topography of the area makes it very difficult for either side to make advances. Russian forces will face challenges in navigating the terrain including the Svesky Donetsk River and the heavily forested, hilly terrain. Jonathan refers to the challenges the Russians faced when attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donetsk River at Bilohorivka in May 2022 where Russia lost a significant amount of military equipment. Jonathan concludes that the area is difficult for either side to make significant advances.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut Front Line Update

🎦 04:44-05:27⏩

Jonathan reports that the situation near Bakhmut is positional with no significant fighting reported.

Return to top⤴️

Avdiivka Front Line Update

🎦 05:27-16:23⏩

Jonathan reports that the situation in Avdiivka is the most serious on the front line with heavy fighting taking place. Jonathan reports that according to Getty Images, Ukrainian forces have repelled Russian attacks North of Sinkivka and in the Krakomalmy area. According to the same source, Russian forces are continuing to try to find a gap in Ukrainian defences northeast and southeast of Berdychiv, in the area of Spirne and Vesele. Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the Stepova area, Pervomysky and northeast of Berdychiv. Jonathan analyses the situation around Avdiivka and considers the implications of the latest changes indicated by Syriac Maps in the area. It appears that Syriac Maps have acknowledged that Russian forces did not capture Zenit and that the area is under the control of Ukrainian forces. However, Jonathan points out that Russian forces are making gains in the southern Dacha area. The ISW report that Russian forces recently advanced north of Avdiivka, and on Avdiivka's southern outskirts. Ukrainian forces are reported to have made marginal gains south of the settlement. Jonathan reports that according to geolocated footage published on 25/01/2024, Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Stepova, and along Sportivna Street in the southernmost residential area of Avdiivka. Footage released by the 40th OMBR show the destruction of Russian equipment on the outskirts of Stepova. Jonathan notes that Stepova is still highly contested and that it is difficult to determine from the footage which side controls which areas. Jonathan reports that geolocated footage has confirmed that Ukrainian tanks from the 116th Mechanised Brigade are targeting Russian positions in the southern part of Avdiivka. Jonathan notes reports that Russian forces are using tunnels, sewers and drain pipes to gain access to areas behind Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka to good effect. The ISW report that Russian forces are making marginal gains in Avdiivka having failed to encircle the settlement, instead the ISW assesses that Russia is prioritising fighting through Avdiivka block by block. The ISW reports that the tempo of the Russian offensive has decreased since the initial waves of the assault began in October and November 2023. Jonathan explains why control of the Coke Plant is key to holding Avdiivka and that Russia would have preferred to encircle the city to avoid having to engage in urban warfare.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk Oblast Front Line Update

🎦 16:23-17:40⏩

Jonathan analyses the latest changes to the front line in the Donetsk Oblast. Jonathan reports on minor Ukrainian gains and minor Russian gains southeast of Pobeda and on the way to Novomykolaivka. Jonathan highlights Ukrainian gains further south of Novomykolaivka and explains that Syriac Maps have walked back their initial assessment of gains made by Russian forces in the area, attributing this to the fact that initial claims by the source can often be overly optimistic and are often revised at a later date. Jonathan highlights that Andrew Perpetua has changed his map to show that Ukraine made gains in the area a lot earlier than previously thought and provides context.

Return to top⤴️

Vuhledar Front Line Update

🎦 17:40-19:32⏩

Jonathan analyses the latest situation in Vuhledar. It is reported that Russian forces may have taken back some area in the centre. Jonathan notes that conditions make it difficult for both sides to make advances, highlighting that Ukrainian forces have reportedly destroyed Russian boats attempting to cross the Dnipro River. Jonathan highlights the challenges of transporting troops and supplies across the Dnipro River in small boats and considers the human cost for both sides.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

🎦 19:32-20:16⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. Jonathan reminds viewers that his next video will be about US Politics and Donald Trump's recent speech.

Return to top⤴️