US Politics Election Extra: Harris - Trump Showdown Update

"I think the challenge confronting American conservatives is that we have lost every major powerful institution in the country, except for maybe churches and religious institutions, which of course are weaker now than they've ever been."

Hello Team

🎦 00:01-03:28⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the video and introduces a US election special focussing on the potential Harris - Trump showdown. He starts with the idea that Biden stepping down was not a conspiracy, but rather a reflection of the American people's opinion that he was too old for office. He references David Axelrod's comments on the Bulwark podcast about Biden's departure. Jonathan suggests that Biden was pressured by voters to step down, as well as by donors and lawmakers who were reflecting their own constituents' views. He believes that Biden's age was a key issue, and this ultimately led to his decision to step down.

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Republican Reactions to Kamala Harris

🎦 03:28-05:43⏩

Jonathan discusses how Republicans have responded to Kamala Harris as a potential candidate for president. He points out that several Republicans have made insulting and inappropriate comments about her, including Tim Burchett who suggested that she was a DEI hire (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion), which Jonathan argues is untrue as she's a senior politician. Jonathan highlights J.D. Vance's remarks that she should be thankful, as well as Sebastian Gorka who called her a 'disaster whose only qualification was having a vagina and the right skin colour'.

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Trump's Comments on Kamala Harris

🎦 05:43-07:57⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's comments about Kamala Harris. Trump has been spreading false information about her, claiming that she failed her bar exam. Jonathan highlights a comment from a fan who suggests that if Trump is going to mispronounce Kamala's name with an emphasis on the last syllable, then Kamala should do the same with Trump and call him 'Don Old'. Jonathan points out that Trump's comments are inappropriate given Harris's experience as a lawyer and senior politician. He also argues that Trump is hypocritical, given his own history of avoiding the Vietnam draft with bone spurs and his poor academic record.

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Focus Groups on Kamala Harris

🎦 07:57-13:42⏩

Jonathan shares the results of focus groups conducted by MSNBC. He discusses how Trump supporters perceive Harris, with many believing that she is not competent or experienced. They focus on her record on immigration and the border, but fail to acknowledge the limitations of her role as 'border czar' and the fact that she's unable to pass legislation without congressional support. Jonathan explores the idea that these negative views of Harris are likely influenced by Trump himself and that they are rooted in a lack of information about her work and accomplishments.

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Trump's Political Strategy

🎦 13:42-17:20⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's strategy of attempting to undermine his opponents by making false claims, such as his statement that he would 'fix' the system and remove the need for voting in four years. Jonathan argues that this could be interpreted as a desire to establish a dictatorship, as Trump appears to be suggesting that he will be in power permanently. However, he also considers the possibility that Trump is simply being careless with his language and trying to appeal to voters by promising a successful government that would make them happy. Jonathan believes that even if Trump is not intentionally advocating for a dictatorship, his language is still deeply problematic. He also highlights Trump's ongoing attempts to deceive his supporters, such as his claim that he never cut social security and Medicare. Jonathan reminds viewers that Trump did indeed introduce budgets to cut these programs, but they were blocked by Democrats in Congress.

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J.D. Vance's Attacks on the Democratic Party

🎦 17:20-19:50⏩

Jonathan discusses J.D. Vance's attacks on the Democratic Party. Vance claims that the Democrats are anti-family and anti-child. He accuses them of being against the child tax credit and of advocating for the masking of toddlers. Jonathan refutes Vance's claims, pointing out that the Democrats have actually expanded the child tax credit and that the Biden-Harris administration has taken steps to reduce child poverty. He argues that Vance's claims are simply untrue and designed to appeal to voters who are concerned about family values.

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The Age Factor

🎦 19:50-22:15⏩

Jonathan highlights that Republicans are now using the age card against Trump. He wonders whether the Democrats will also use this against Trump, considering that they defended Biden from similar attacks. He discusses Trump's recent incoherent statements, which he believes are indicative of declining cognitive abilities. Jonathan draws parallels to Trump's comments and his own experience with progressive multiple sclerosis, which has impaired his cognitive abilities. He argues that Trump's increasingly nonsensical pronouncements are cause for concern, and that they are likely to be used against him in the campaign.

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Trump's Incoherent Statements

🎦 22:15-24:30⏩

Jonathan points to examples of Trump's incoherent statements, such as his recent comment that he is "incapable of solving even the smallest smallest problem the simplest of problems". He argues that this reflects a pattern of Trump struggling to communicate effectively. Jonathan suggests that journalists often edit Trump's speeches to make sense, and that this practice needs to end so that voters can see the true extent of his cognitive decline in writing.

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Trump's Unifying Persona

🎦 24:30-25:08⏩

Jonathan critiques Trump's claim of being a 'unifier', highlighting that he has often resorted to divisive and insulting rhetoric. He points out that Trump has been attacking Harris, despite previously promising to be a unifying force.

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Trump's Antisemitic Remarks

🎦 25:08-25:54⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's antisemitic remarks about Harris, where he claimed that she is "totally against the Jewish people". Jonathan finds this statement particularly bizarre given that Harris is married to a Jewish man. He concludes that this is yet another example of Trump's disregard for truth and his willingness to exploit divisive rhetoric to attack his opponents.

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Potential Vice Presidential Picks for Harris

🎦 25:54-29:52⏩

Jonathan discusses potential vice presidential picks for Harris, mentioning that Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, is a leading contender. He highlights Shapiro's defence of Harris's remarks on the Gaza war, which is a sensitive topic given the competing pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli sentiments within the Democratic Party. Jonathan suggests that Shapiro's nuanced position on the conflict, including his support for a two-state solution and his critique of Netanyahu, could make him an attractive choice as VP.

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Shapiro's Nuance on the Gaza War

🎦 29:52-30:55⏩

Jonathan further explores Shapiro's nuanced position on the Gaza war, highlighting that he is a Jewish person who has spoken out against Netanyahu's actions. He believes that Shapiro's perspective is valuable and important, particularly given the political climate around the conflict.

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Shifting Tone of the Harris Campaign

🎦 30:55-33:54⏩

Jonathan observes a change in tone from the Biden campaign to the Harris campaign. He believes that Harris's team is now more comfortable expressing their opinions freely, as they were previously constrained by Biden's presence. He highlights examples of Harris's campaign statements which are more direct and critical, contrasting them with Biden's more traditional and less engaging political statements.

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The Strength of the American Economy

🎦 33:54-35:45⏩

Jonathan discusses the state of the American economy, acknowledging that it is performing well compared to other nations. He highlights that the Biden administration has surpassed economic benchmarks that Trump previously boasted about, yet Trump has failed to acknowledge this positive news.

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The Importance of Selling the Narrative

🎦 35:45-36:29⏩

Jonathan emphasises the importance of how the Harris campaign sells its narrative to voters. He believes that the campaign needs to balance focusing on past achievements with highlighting the future vision. He suggests that the campaign should focus on the progress made under Biden, while also emphasizing the need for continued positive change and a brighter future.

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Harris's Support Among Key Demographics

🎦 36:29-42:13⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's strong support among key demographics, including women, people of colour, and South Asians. He points out that her campaign has been successful in mobilising these groups, both separately and together, through initiatives such as record-breaking Zoom fundraising calls. He observes that these movements seem to be organic and bottom-up, driven by genuine enthusiasm and support rather than being a top-down initiative. This aligns with Axelrod's earlier comments about the organic nature of Biden's departure, and it suggests that there is a genuine grassroots movement supporting Harris.

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Harris's Success in the Polls

🎦 42:13-46:33⏩

Jonathan discusses the latest polls, which show Harris gaining ground on Trump. He highlights that the Wall Street Journal poll has Harris ahead in a full field scenario, with third-party candidates splitting the Republican vote. He also points to a Fox News poll that shows Harris up in Minnesota and tied with Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He notes that these are significant shifts in the polls, especially considering the short amount of time since Biden stepped down. Jonathan also observes that Trump's support among black voters in Michigan has fallen to zero percent, which is an alarming sign for his campaign. Jonathan concludes that these polls are positive for Harris and that they indicate a potential shift in the race.

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Importance of Every Vote

🎦 46:33-46:53⏩

Jonathan emphasises the significance of every vote in the potential Harris-Trump race, especially in swing states. He explains that these states have a relatively small number of voters, so each vote carries extra weight. He mentions that a Republican internal poll in Pennsylvania has Harris up by one point, which is a worrying sign for the Trump campaign.

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Harris's Appeal to Younger Voters

🎦 46:53-47:12⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's appeal to younger voters, highlighting that an Axios poll shows her leading Trump by 20 points among voters under 34. He believes that this could lead to historic youth vote numbers, especially if she continues to take bold stances on issues such as climate change and the conflict in Gaza.

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Harris's Overnight Turnaround

🎦 47:12-48:09⏩

Jonathan emphasizes that Harris has significantly improved the race for the Democrats, essentially restoring it to the 2016-2020 levels overnight. He argues that this turnaround is due to the shift from Biden to Harris and that it indicates that Biden's age was a significant factor in his decline in the polls.

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Betting Odds

🎦 48:09-48:31⏩

Jonathan discusses betting odds, which he considers a reliable indicator of potential outcomes. He notes that the betting odds have not changed significantly since Biden stepped down, with Trump still being favoured. However, he is curious to see if this will change as the campaign progresses and new information emerges.

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Republican Strategies for Attacking Harris

🎦 48:31-49:20⏩

Jonathan predicts that Republicans will likely attack Harris on issues such as immigration, her record as a prosecutor, and her perceived liberalism. He believes that they will attempt to portray her as too soft on immigration and crime, and that they will try to exploit her prosecutorial background by suggesting that she is not a friend to people of colour.

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J.D. Vance's Controversies

🎦 49:20-52:18⏩

Jonathan discusses the controversies surrounding J.D. Vance, who has become a liability for the Republican Party. He mentions rumours about Vance's personal life, including accusations of inappropriate behaviour. Jonathan believes that these rumours, even if they are untrue, are damaging to Vance's reputation and could ultimately hurt his chances of becoming VP. He also highlights Vance's recent comments about "childless cat ladies", which have been met with backlash from the public and which he has since attempted to clarify.

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The Impact of Vance's Comments

🎦 52:18-54:06⏩

Jonathan explores the impact of Vance's controversial comments. He argues that his remarks were poorly framed and have damaged his credibility, especially among women voters. He suggests that Vance's poor strategic decisions could cost him the VP nomination, as he has alienated a key demographic that Harris is seeking to attract.

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Project 2025 and the Threat to Democracy

🎦 54:06-01:01⏩
:00
Jonathan discusses Project 2025, a conservative agenda that is deeply concerning due to its potential to undermine American democracy. He explains that one of the most worrying aspects of Project 2025 is Schedule F, which would allow Trump to replace hundreds of thousands of career civil servants with political appointees. Jonathan warns that this could lead to a situation where Trump loyalists control key government agencies, such as the DOJ, FBI, and IRS. He highlights that this would undermine the rule of law and make it easier for Trump to manipulate the system to his advantage. Jonathan concludes that Project 2025 and Schedule F pose a serious threat to American democracy.

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Wrap up

🎦 01:01:00-01:01⏩
:15⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for watching and expressing his hope that the video was of interest. He reminds viewers that he will be producing further content about the US election.

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