Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"The Russians are just doing their usual liberation approach to any town, which is send as much ordnance in and flatten a place, and it doesn't matter if you kill any of the people living there because you're liberating them from life, it appears."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-03:20⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a delayed Frontline update, attributing the delay to the extensive mapping required due to a significant amount of news. He explains the colour-coded system used in the mapping and encourages viewers unfamiliar with it to pause the video and review the key. Jonathan acknowledges the numerous Russian advances shown on the map, clarifying that they reflect the cumulative effect over several days. He also mentions the absence of Deep State map updates due to time constraints and the delayed ISW summary on ATP Distilled (run by Benny). Jonathan highlights two key takeaways from the ISW report: a Russian soldier’s wife complaining about inadequate food and water supplies for her husband's unit near Lyman and reports of newly deployed Russian personnel in the Kharkiv region receiving minimal training before being sent to the front lines. Jonathan sees these reports as indicative of the struggles faced by the Russian army.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kharkiv Oblast Frontline Update

🎦 03:20-04:20⏩

Jonathan begins with the Kharkiv Oblast, noting some Ukrainian gains east/northeast of Vovchansk and claims that Starytsa has been cleared of Russian forces. Although not reflected in Andrew Perpetua’s map, Jonathan highlights a video from Reporting from Ukraine supporting these claims. Jonathan observes Ukrainian pushbacks in several areas along the northeastern sector.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update

🎦 04:20-11:39⏩

Shifting focus to the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, Jonathan points out areas of Russian advances, particularly concerning near Kreminna. He revisits the theory of a potential 10,000-strong Russian force push towards Borova but questions its feasibility due to potential personnel constraints. He expresses concern over Russia’s grinding advance towards the Oskil River, highlighting their progress near Krokmalna and potential control of Pishchane. Jonathan discusses the differing interpretations of Russian progress between Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua, noting Suriat Maps often shows more extensive Russian control. He introduces the concept of "YOLO" attacks - aggressive, often suicidal assaults by small Russian units which may explain discrepancies between mappers. He describes these attacks as often being destroyed before achieving their objectives but acknowledges their potential to create confusion about territorial control. Jonathan shows a video example of a YOLO attack near Velyka Novosilka, where a Russian armoured vehicle is destroyed. He reiterates the importance of considering differing mapping methodologies.

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Lyman-Siversk Frontline Update

🎦 11:39-16:12⏩

Moving south, Jonathan highlights a positive development for Ukraine north of Lyman, where Andrew Perpetua's map shows Russian defensive lines pushed back significantly. He attributes this change to evidence of Ukrainian shelling and the challenges of geolocating in forested areas. Jonathan explains the strategic importance of this area in protecting Bilohorivka and Siversk, noting the difficulty for Russian forces to cross the Siverskyi Donets river. He recalls a previous instance where Russia lost significant equipment during a river crossing attempt. Jonathan then discusses discrepancies between mapper interpretations of Russian control west of Bilohorivka, with Suriat Maps depicting significantly more Russian control than Andrew Perpetua. He speculates whether observed Russian activity, including the placement of a flag on a destroyed building, indicates actual control or a YOLO-style incursion.

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Bakhmut Frontline Update

🎦 16:12-19:36⏩

Jonathan then focuses on Bakhmut, acknowledging Russian control of Rozdolivka, confirmed by Andrew Perpetua. He mentions another flag-planting incident which, after analysis, confirmed Russian presence in the area. Moving to Chasiv Yar, Jonathan observes Russian gains north of Kalynivka, potentially aimed at finding a way to cross the canal and bypass Ukrainian-held strong points. Jonathan explains the complexities of navigating the terrain and the likelihood of Ukrainian forces closely monitoring those areas, making a successful Russian crossing difficult. He observes that Klishchiivka remains unchanged, noting its strategic importance in protecting Chasiv Yar. He points out significant discrepancies between mappers regarding Russian control in this area, with Suriat Maps indicating more extensive Russian control than Andrew Perpetua, who designates much of it as a grey zone.

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Donetsk City/Avdiivka Frontline Update

🎦 19:36-29:07⏩

Jonathan shifts focus south of Chasiv Yar, pointing out what appears to be either a Ukrainian counterattack or a re-adjustment of lines near Pivnichne, with Andrew Perpetua’s map indicating reduced Russian control. He contrasts this with Russian pressure further south around Toretsk, highlighting Suriat Maps depiction of Russian expansion east of the town and westward advances towards the outskirts. Jonathan expresses concern over Russian control of high-rise buildings on Toretsk’s periphery, drawing parallels to similar tactical advantages seen in Vuhledar. Jonathan then examines the Zalyzhne area, where he notes significant Russian gains over recent days, pushing towards the T0504 highway, a crucial supply route. He describes the situation for Ukrainian troops in this area as under pressure due to these advances. He then discusses the New York area, where Ukraine has pushed back Russian forces from part of the bridgehead. However, he notes Russian gains in the northeast, resulting in a net expansion of their bridgehead according to both Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua. Jonathan points out Russian advances near Vodiane, pushing closer to the Prokrovsk-Kostyantynivka supply line. He mentions that this road is now closed to civilian traffic, likely due to increased fighting. He observes additional Russian gains in the fields and villages in this area, particularly around Lozove. Jonathan notes the consistent pattern of grinding Russian advances, aiming to reach the main road and potentially encounter fortified Ukrainian positions.

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Donetsk City/Western Donetsk Oblast Frontline Update

🎦 29:07-32:40⏩

Jonathan continues south, noting Russian gains near Netaylove and Pervomaiske, pushing towards Karlivka. He then observes the contested situation in Nevelske, with parts seemingly under Russian control, a grey zone, or still contested. Jonathan points to the strategic significance of this area, which previously helped stall Russian flanking attempts after the fall of Pervomaiske. Jonathan then examines Krasnohorivka, where he observes differing mapper interpretations of Russian control. He highlights a significant discrepancy, with Suriat Maps showing substantial gains compared to Andrew Perpetua, who indicates a more contested grey zone. Finally, Jonathan examines the Maryinka and Novomykhailivka areas, highlighting limited Russian gains north of Pobieda. He notes this renewed activity, according to Suriat Maps, after several weeks of relative stalemate. Despite acknowledging these Russian successes, Jonathan emphasizes the cost of these gains and questions their long-term sustainability, considering the potential loss of Russian life per kilometre gained. He touches upon failed Russian offensives in Vuhledar, Novomykhailivka, and their attempts to cut off the Kostantynivka supply line, highlighting their high cost in equipment and personnel. He concludes this section by noting Suriat Maps' depiction of Russian advances near Urozhaine, particularly east of the village, contrasting with the long-awaited update from Andrew Perpetua confirming the fall of Krasnohrivka to Russian forces after weeks of uncertainty.

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Russian Su-25 Shoot Down and Other News

🎦 32:40-36:50⏩

Jonathan ends the frontline update, acknowledging that the situation appears challenging for Ukraine. He cites claims that the Russian summer offensive has not been effective but expresses scepticism towards the likelihood of quick counteroffensives in modern warfare, citing the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives as examples. He anticipates further slow, grinding advances by Russian forces at a high cost. Jonathan then reports the downing of a Russian Su-25 fighter jet near Troitske in the Donetsk region, confirmed by Status Six. He initially struggles to locate the exact location of the incident, eventually finding the relevant Troitske. Jonathan then shares a somewhat humorous anecdote about a Russian assault detachment commander, Leonid Kolomyets, who was killed in Vovchansk shortly after posting "I don't give an f*, I will kill everyone whoever dies first," exemplifying the "YOLO" mentality.

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Wrap Up

🎦 36:50-36:58⏩

Jonathan concludes the video, apologising for the delay in updates and acknowledging the volume of changes. He thanks viewers for their understanding and signs off.

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