Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"If it was Israel, as everyone seems to believe, and if Iran's drone and ballistic missile facilities have been seriously damaged, as appears to be the case, that's worth a hell of a lot more than 14 tanks."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts with the overnight news, noting that the Ukrainian figures for Russian losses are considerably lower than previous days. This could be due to it being a Sunday or just less activity on certain parts of the front line. The figures include 490 liquidated personnel, 4 tanks, 3 APCs, and 1 artillery system.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Iran drone factories hit
- There are claims that 14 targets were hit in Iran overnight, including drone factories and headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard and Quds Force, as well as other defence industrial facilities.
- Iran has denied any issues but sources say there was specific, surgical and successful damage done to these facilities.
- If it was Israel behind the attacks, as many believe, and Iran's drone and missile facilities have been seriously damaged, Jonathan notes this could be more meaningful for Ukraine than tanks being provided by other countries.
Abrams tanks and Ukrainian tank training
- Despite initial announcements, it now looks like the US Abrams tanks promised to Ukraine may not arrive until the end of 2023 or even 2024, rather than in time for the spring counter-offensive.
- However, Ukrainian tank crews have arrived in the UK to begin training on the British Challenger 2 tanks, which are expected to be ready for the front lines by the end of March.
- There are also calls for Switzerland to provide mothballed Leopard tanks to help fill gaps for countries like Poland and Germany who are sending tanks to Ukraine.
Logistics and infrastructure hits
- Satellite imagery from Jan 23rd shows the Kerch Bridge still has significant holes and is some way from being fully repaired, which is good news for Ukrainian logistics.
- Ukraine also hit a key railway station area in Ilovaisk, just east of Donetsk, targeting personnel and military equipment being offloaded. Fuel may have also been hit.
- A large-scale Ukrainian equipment repair operation has been launched in Poland, with hundreds of technicians working to restore artillery and heavy armour, like Krab self-propelled guns, for return to the front lines. Having this functioning logistics chain for repairs is crucial.
Disinformation and attacks on hospitals
- The recent Russian claim that Ukraine attacked a hospital, killing 14 people, is "almost certainly disinformation" according to Sky News.
- Jonathan highlights the lack of evidence it was a hospital, with no markings or signs, and the dubious claim only emerging hours after the initial attack reports.
- In contrast, he shows a graphic image of what a real hospital hit by shelling looks like, suggesting if true, the Russian claim would constitute a war crime.
Ukraine's EU ambitions and Russian offensive
- Ukraine plans to become an EU member in the next two years, with preliminary accession negotiations possibly this year. Corruption will be a key issue.
- The EU accession process incentivizes candidate countries to meet key criteria around democracy, transparency and rule of law.
- However, Brussels has signaled that Ukraine's timeline may be overly ambitious.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia has switched to offensive operations in the Lyman direction, with intensified attacks and reinforcements arriving. This may explain the pressure Ukraine is under in some areas.
Boris Johnson's Putin story
In an interview, former UK PM Boris Johnson recounts a call with Putin where the Russian leader allegedly threatened him, saying "Boris, I don't want to hurt you, but with a missile it would only take a minute." Johnson suggests Putin's tone was "jolly" but the "air of detachment" made it seem like a veiled threat rather than a joke. This may partly explain Johnson's strong early support for Ukraine.
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Russian oil revenues and sanctions
Despite sanctions, Russia still makes €260M per day on crude oil exports. However, the price cap means they are getting $30-40 per barrel rather than the $70 budgeted, losing around €160M daily. Additional price caps on diesel could cost Russia another €120M per day. So while still making money, Russia is taking a financial hit that will impact government spending.
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Wrap up
Jonathan wraps up, promising a front line update video next. He thanks viewers for their support and comments, and plugs a website where people can buy merchandise to support Ukraine and the channel, like airpod cases.
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