Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"The definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again, expecting different results. But actually, what does happen quite often is they do get different results or they just grind out a foothold"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:06⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update, highlighting the record-breaking temperatures being experienced globally and how this will impact fighting conditions in Ukraine. He notes that despite the heat, the front lines remain active with reports of large-scale Russian attacks. Jonathan reports Ukrainian claims of over 1,000 Russian personnel losses and significant equipment losses, including 25+ tanks, 38 armoured vehicles and 46 artillery systems, suggesting intense fighting.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Del's "Oryx" visually confirmed loss stats update
🎦 01:06-05:36⏩
Jonathan highlights Del's updated "Oryx" visually confirmed loss statistics, accessible via a link in the video description. Del reports new record highs for Russian artillery losses over a 24-hour period and a new 30-day rolling average of 51 artillery systems lost per day. The spreadsheet has been enhanced to include 7 and 30-day moving averages, with annotations highlighting record highs. Jonathan expresses his admiration for Del's work and reminds viewers to check out the comprehensive data, noting the spreadsheet's user-friendly features, such as trend lines and colour coding, that visualise the scale of Russian equipment losses. Jonathan promises to meet up with Del for a beer later in the month (several in fact!)
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Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss stats update
🎦 05:36-06:00⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss statistics, suggesting a loss ratio of 4:1 in favour of Ukraine. He indicates significant Russian equipment losses throughout the week, while highlighting that Ukrainian losses have been comparatively lower.
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Ukrainian visually confirmed losses
🎦 06:00-07:53⏩
- Jonathan analyses recent Ukrainian equipment losses using Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss data, noting the inclusion of damaged equipment.
- Ukrainian losses include communications equipment, a couple of boats, and damaged equipment such as a Bohdana self-propelled howitzer, an M1 Abrams tank and a Leopard 2A4 tank.
- Jonathan observes that losses increasingly consist of Western-supplied equipment, reflecting the changing composition of the Ukrainian military.
- He predicts further Western equipment losses due to attrition and because replacement equipment will be predominantly Western-made.
- Jonathan highlights Poland's early significant contribution of Soviet-era T-72 tanks and PT-91 Twardy tanks, but suggests this is unlikely to continue as Ukraine transitions to Western equipment.
- Additional Ukrainian losses include M113 APCs, Humvees, Senators, MaxxPro MRAPs and a growing number of Oshkosh M-ATVs.
Russian visually confirmed losses
🎦 07:53-09:32⏩
- Jonathan analyses recent Russian equipment losses using Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss data, noting the inclusion of damaged equipment.
- He observes that the only high-value loss is a Pantsir-S1 (SA-22 Greyhound) short-range air defence system, which, while not the most advanced system, is considered a significant loss for the Russians.
- Other Russian losses encompass a range of equipment, including artillery, tanks, communications equipment, MT-LB armoured vehicles, armoured personnel carriers (APCs) and trucks.
- Jonathan points out that a higher proportion of Russian equipment has been destroyed or abandoned compared to previous data, with a significant number of civilian vehicles also lost.
Visually confirmed loss ratio comparison
🎦 09:32-11:12⏩
- Jonathan estimates the combat loss ratio to be approximately 1.75:1, with Russia suffering heavier losses compared to Ukraine.
- He observes a high volume of Russian losses in non-combat vehicles, including trucks, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and civilian vehicles.
- Jonathan discusses a recently surfaced video showing the downing of a Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter two years ago, highlighting the delayed emergence of visually confirmed losses.
- He questions the accuracy of Ukrainian claims regarding aircraft and helicopter losses, suggesting some may be overstated due to initial inclusion of unverified data. However, he acknowledges the Ukrainian military has become more stringent in their reporting over time.
- Jonathan speculates that the true extent of losses may not be fully known for years, as some destroyed equipment remains undiscovered.
Large-scale Russian attack near Kostantynivka
🎦 11:12-14:45⏩
- Jonathan describes a recent large-scale Russian attack near Kostantynivka, a strategically important town on the Donetsk front line, highlighting the significance of its location on higher ground and its potential as a staging point for further Russian advances towards Vuhledar.
- The attack involved an estimated 70 pieces of equipment and 200 troops, divided into smaller units supported by tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and APCs.
- Ukraine successfully repelled the attack by employing a combination of artillery, drones, including FPV suicide drones and munition-dropping drones, and mortars, inflicting significant losses on the Russians.
- Despite the losses (6 tanks, 10 IFVs, 12 motorcycles, 77 troops), Jonathan expresses concern that Russia appears to be repeating similar large-scale attacks, highlighting their determination to gain a foothold in the area.
- Jonathan acknowledges the effectiveness of this strategy, despite the high cost in terms of equipment and personnel. He draws a parallel to the Battle of Bakhmut, where Russia's relentless assaults eventually led to the city's capture.
Russian attack on Karakovka
🎦 14:45-15:03⏩
- Jonathan reports another repelled Russian attack, this time on the Karakovka front, west of Kostantynivka.
- He credits the Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade for successfully defending their positions, despite facing a large-scale Russian assault involving over 50 pieces of equipment.
- Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery, drone operators, anti-tank units, sappers, and infantry in repelling the attack.
- He reports Ukrainian claims of 12 Russian armoured vehicles, 8 tanks, 9 motorcycles and buggies destroyed, along with 36 Russian soldiers killed and 32 wounded.
Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian loss claims
🎦 15:03-18:42⏩
- Jonathan discusses the accuracy of both Russian and Ukrainian loss claims, acknowledging that both sides are likely to overstate their successes.
- He cites analysis from Perun, a military analyst, who compared loss claims with visually confirmed data. Perun’s findings suggest that Russian claims of Ukrainian losses are overestimated by a factor of 7 to 17 compared to visually confirmed data. This means that for every 100 pieces of Ukrainian equipment claimed destroyed by Russia, only 6-15 are actually verified.
- In contrast, Ukrainian claims of Russian losses appear to be more accurate, with an overestimation factor of approximately 3 to 1.
- While acknowledging that not all losses will be visually confirmed, Jonathan emphasises the significant discrepancy between the two sides’ claims, suggesting that Russian figures are less reliable.
- He dismisses Russian claims outright as either "impossible" or "implausible", citing the example of Russia claiming to have destroyed more aircraft than Ukraine possesses.
Impact of Western military aid on Ukraine's capabilities
🎦 18:42-21:26⏩
- Jonathan highlights that Ukraine is now in a better position than at the start of the war in terms of main battle tanks (MBTs), infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and APCs, attributing this to the substantial military aid received from Western allies.
- He emphasizes that Western-supplied APCs, including M113s, Humvees and Senators, have significantly bolstered Ukrainian capabilities.
- Jonathan contends that Ukraine's equipment has consistently improved throughout the war, while Russia has resorted to using older and less-capable equipment from its reserves.
- He points out the stark contrast in equipment quality, with Ukraine transitioning to more advanced Western systems, while Russia relies on outdated systems like the M46 howitzer.
- Jonathan believes that this trend favours Ukraine in the long run. He cites examples like Russia's dwindling supply of MT-LBs and increased reliance on golf carts and electric buggies as evidence of their logistical challenges.
- Jonathan encourages viewers to watch Perun's analysis, praising his insightful commentary.
Explosions reported in Kursk and Rostov
🎦 21:26-23:04⏩
- Jonathan reports on overnight explosions in Kursk, Russia, specifically near an airport. While Russia claims to have shot down four incoming missiles, there is no independent verification of this claim.
- He notes the unusual use of missiles in these attacks, as previous incidents primarily involved drones.
- Jonathan then discusses reports of explosions and smoke in Rostov, a Russian city on the Sea of Azov, speculating that a warehouse containing drone components may have been targeted.
- He cites a warning from the previous day about the unusual deployment of all three of Russia’s Black Sea cruise missile-capable submarines, suggesting a possible large-scale missile attack on Ukraine could be imminent.
- Jonathan advises his viewers to be aware of this potential threat.
Russia recruiting airfield personnel for combat roles
🎦 23:04-25:22⏩
- Jonathan discusses a report from a "fairly reliable" Russian Telegram channel called "Fighterbomber" alleging that Russia is experiencing a manpower shortage and is resorting to recruiting personnel from military airfields to serve in combat roles.
- According to the channel, a new motorized rifle regiment has been formed using personnel from the Aerospace Forces, including pilots, engineers, technicians, and flight crews.
- He questions the reasoning behind deploying highly skilled personnel, such as pilots, in ground combat roles.
- While the "Fighterbomber" channel attempts to downplay the significance of this development, Jonathan views it as evidence of Russia’s increasing desperation.
Mobilized blogger's criticism of Russia's strategy
🎦 25:22-29:42⏩
- Expanding on the previous topic, Jonathan highlights concerns raised by a mobilized Russian military blogger regarding the reassignment of personnel to different roles and the strain on reserves due to Russia's offensive strategy.
- The blogger criticises the practice of using personnel in roles they are not trained for, such as sending mortar or sniper crews into assaults following the loss of their equipment.
- He argues that this strategy is unsustainable and points to the high injury threshold for demobilization as evidence of the strain on Russian forces. According to the blogger, soldiers are now required to have more severe injuries, such as the loss of two fingers on one hand, to be eligible for demobilization.
- The blogger attributes this to Russia’s reluctance to conduct a second mobilization wave due to concerns over its unpopularity and potential impact on the economy and domestic stability.
- Jonathan suggests that the blogger sees this trend as unsustainable, concluding that Russia will be forced to either seek a negotiated settlement or implement a second mobilization wave.
Possible Ukrainian involvement in Mali
🎦 29:42-30:28⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to Mali, where a photograph has surfaced suggesting possible Ukrainian involvement in the recent attack on Wagner Group personnel.
- He describes the image, which shows a Ukrainian flag displayed alongside a Malian flag with an individual believed to be Ukrainian.
- Jonathan speculates that Ukraine may have provided support to Tuareg rebels in the attack that resulted in the deaths of 80 Wagner mercenaries and the capture of 15.
Russian politician criticises state of Russian military
🎦 30:28-31:13⏩
Jonathan shares a statement made in the Duma, the Russian Parliament, where a deputy from the ruling United Russia party openly criticised the state of the Black Sea Fleet. The deputy, Yevgeny Fedorov, described the situation as a "victory for the enemy" and acknowledged the Russian military's inability to compete with NATO. Jonathan finds this admission significant, suggesting a growing willingness to express dissent within Russia's political circles.
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Disinformation and unreliable sources
🎦 31:13-34:23⏩
- Jonathan cautions his viewers about the prevalence of disinformation and highlights examples of unreliable sources. He shows a tweet from a pro-Russian account with a Finnish flag, suggesting it may be a bot due to its formulaic response.
- He then addresses the recent claims made by former US Army Colonel Douglas MacGregor, a known pro-Russian commentator, regarding the alleged deaths of 18 British SAS members in Ukraine. Jonathan dismisses these claims as false and points out that MacGregor's source is a Spanish conspiracy theorist with a history of spreading misinformation.
- He expresses his frustration with individuals who continue to promote MacGregor and other unreliable figures, using colourful language to emphasize his point.
Criticism of Ukrainian military leadership
🎦 34:23-37:33⏩
- Jonathan shares a critical perspective on the Ukrainian military leadership, citing concerns raised by Ukrainian military analysts. He presents a Twitter thread discussing the situation in the Prokrosk direction, where some areas of defence are reported to be collapsing.
- The thread, from a user called Tatar Gromit, highlights concerns over unrealistic tasks, a lack of resources and poor decision-making by the Ukrainian high command. Jonathan quotes Oryx contributor Jakub Janowski, who suggests that political interference is leading to unnecessary losses. He points to criticism directed at General Sursky, the commander of Ukrainian ground forces, and Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office.
- While acknowledging the challenges faced by the Ukrainian military, Jonathan emphasizes the importance of addressing these issues.
Unverified image of F-16 in Ukrainian airspace
🎦 37:33-38:11⏩
Jonathan shares a blurry image circulating online purportedly showing an F-16 fighter jet in Ukrainian airspace. However, he is unable to verify its authenticity, acknowledging that it could be an F-16 operating in a different location or even a different type of aircraft.
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Wrap up
🎦 38:11-38:15⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, expressing his appreciation for their support.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unclear about the following points and would appreciate clarification:
Timestamp 02:06: Who is Del, and what is his connection to "Oryx"? Is "Oryx" a website or a platform that tracks military equipment losses?
Timestamp 05:36: Who is Andrew Perpetua, and what is the source of his visually confirmed loss data? Is this a website or a platform?
Timestamp 14:51: Who is Perun? Is Perun a military analyst, and if so, what is the name of the video being referenced?
Timestamp 19:14: Does Jonathan mean they have thousands more of a particular vehicle than they started with or thousands more vehicles in total?
Timestamp 27:41: What is an "rmo officer"?
Timestamp 29:06: What is a "KAB"?
Timestamp 31:45: What does "give me a cupcake uh recipe" mean in this context?
Timestamp 32:41: What is "Vatnik soup"? Is this some form of online investigation or exposé?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is my thought process for summarising the video transcript:
Identify the key information: I will carefully read the Youtube Video Title and transcript to extract the title, date, part and to identify the different topics covered.
Break down the transcript: I will split the transcript into distinct topics based on subject matter, ensuring each topic is specific and well-defined. I will use my knowledge of the Russia-Ukraine war, ATP Geopolitics and Jonathan's style to ensure accuracy and capture his insights.
Summarise each topic: I will provide a concise and informative summary of each topic using bullet points where appropriate, highlighting key details, analysis, opinions and any important context. I will ensure that Jonathan's humour and personality are conveyed appropriately.
Select a quote: I will choose a quote that reflects the essence of the video - insightful, thought-provoking or humorous - and present it in a way that is understandable out of context.
Identify any queries: I will honestly point out any parts of the transcript that I didn't understand or that need clarification.
