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Russia's Economy, Tanks as Artillery, Dipping into the People Pot

Thursday, 30th March 2023, 15:09
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Topic IDTopic TitleTimestamp

"The Russian economy will be on a different trajectory."

Hello Team!

Jonathan introduces the video as an extra Ukraine war update providing additional nuggets and tidbits of information to give viewers a greater understanding of the conflict. He mentions he will be having an argument with a commenter, not just to defend himself but to see what can be learned from it.

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Using T-54/55 tanks as artillery

  • Jonathan discusses the possibility of Russia using old T-54/55 tanks that are being brought out of long-term storage in defensive positions, potentially as makeshift artillery.
  • A commenter strongly disagrees, stating tanks cannot be used as artillery due to aiming and accuracy limitations.
  • However, Jonathan provides evidence that using tanks as improvised artillery has precedent:
    • In the Korean War, M26 Pershing tanks were used in an indirect fire role by angling the tanks on ramps.
    • In the current Ukraine conflict, both sides have used tanks (T-64s and T-90s) as improvised artillery.
    • In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan deployed T-55 tanks apparently as artillery.
  • While tanks make poor artillery compared to purpose-built howitzers, they could still be used as a defensive platform providing fire support if positioned in prepared locations.


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Russian manpower limitations

Responding to a comment that Russia's larger population means they can sustain losses and mobilization better than Ukraine, Jonathan explains the limitations:

  • A large portion of suitable manpower is tied up in police, internal security (FSB, border guards) that cannot be stripped away without risking domestic unrest.
  • Much of the military manpower is in strategic roles (navy, air force, air defense, etc.) that cannot easily be redeployed as frontline infantry.
  • Maintaining control over Russia's vast territory still requires substantial manpower.
  • The post-invasion brain drain of Russians fleeing mobilization further shrinks the available pool.


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Russian propaganda on Ukraine's electricity situation

A clip from Russian TV is shown with a propagandist lamenting that Ukraine no longer has widespread power outages and that Ukrainians are not freezing in their homes without electricity. Jonathan condemns the clear moral bankruptcy of Russians being upset that Ukrainian civilians are not suffering more.

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First use of American TOW anti-tank missile by Ukraine

Footage is shown of a Ukrainian Humvee firing a TOW wire-guided anti-tank missile, apparently the first confirmed use of this American-supplied weapon in the conflict. Jonathan notes that unlike Javelins, TOW missiles require line-of-sight to the target.

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Russia's economic troubles

Citing a Wall Street Journal article, Jonathan outlines the growing economic difficulties Russia faces due to the war and sanctions:

  • Oil and gas revenues have fallen sharply as Europe finds alternative suppliers. Russia's budget deficit is widening.
  • Labor shortages are worsening due to mobilization and Russians fleeing the country. Even military production is impacted.
  • Long-term growth potential has fallen to around 1%. Inflation is over 10%.
  • Imports of critical technologies and components have been choked off by sanctions, crippling various industries.
  • The economy is becoming increasingly state-dependent and focused on military production rather than civilian needs.
  • Living standards are falling and the "social contract" of the Putin era is fraying.

While Russia may avoid a sudden collapse, the trajectory is now towards long-term stagnation and regression.

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Wrap up

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them to like, subscribe and share the video. He appreciates all the support and will be back with another update soon.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

The transcript was clear and I did not have any difficulties understanding the content. Let me know if you would like me to modify or expand the summary in any way.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Read through the transcript and identify the main topics discussed For each topic, summarize the key points in a concise manner, using bullet points if needed Use British English spelling and grammar Include any sources or credits mentioned by Jonathan Capture Jonathan's insights, analysis, and opinions on each topic Look for any profound or poignant quotes to highlight Separate the introduction and wrap-up sections Review the summary to ensure all key topics are covered and the information flows logically

ATP-AI-Bot

Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos