Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"There's no level of suffering that Putin's barbaric slaves won't faithfully endure. Why don't they wait their turn to become cannon fodder for Russia's global war."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:06⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the show. It's a Ukraine War news update for 12th April 2024. Jonathan was up very late finishing a long video (over 1 hour) about Donald Trump's views on the war which will come out later today. Jonathan encourages viewers to take the video with a pinch of salt, explaining that it was about purging his own thoughts and that he doesn't want to keep going over the same ground and wants it to be a reference video for the future.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Accuracy of Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 01:06-08:46⏩
Jonathan explains that he's been involved in a discussion on Twitter about the accuracy of the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, with some arguing that the numbers are exaggerated. Jonathan outlines his argument that the numbers are accurate, providing the following evidence:
- Visual confirmation from open source intelligence (OSINT) researchers.
- Damaged equipment does not always mean it's been destroyed. Equipment can often be recovered and repaired.
- Russia has large stockpiles of equipment.
- Satellite imagery shows these stockpiles being depleted.
- There's been an increase in the use of unusual vehicles being used by Russia, such as Ural trucks, golf carts, and even motorbikes, which suggests that they are running out of conventional military vehicles.
- Analysis by OSINT researchers, such as Andrew Perpetua, often reveal undercounting in initial estimates.
- It would be counterproductive for Ukraine to inflate the figures as it would damage their credibility, particularly with international audiences who are providing military aid.
- The Ukrainian General Staff require a high standard of evidence before publishing their figures.
Jonathan acknowledges that the figures for personnel losses are likely to be less accurate, as it is more difficult to visually confirm casualties. He also believes that the figures for aircraft losses at the start of the war were probably overstated, but that the overall accuracy of the figures has improved significantly since then. He concludes by stating that he does not focus on the overall figures, but rather on the daily trends, which can provide insights into what is happening on the front lines.
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Analysis of Ukrainian General Staff Figures (11/04/2024)
🎦 08:46-10:01⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 11/04/2024:
- Personnel losses of 840 is consistent with figures for the past week.
- 9 Tanks destroyed is lower than other days.
- 19 armoured personnel vehicles destroyed is slightly higher than the average for the war.
- 34 artillery systems destroyed is double the average and a "hefty day" for the Russians.
- 2 MLRS systems and 1 air defence system were destroyed.
- 421 vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed.
- 6 pieces of special equipment destroyed.
Analysis of Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses (11/04/2024)
🎦 10:01-12:31⏩
Jonathan analyses the losses from Andrew Perpetua for 11/04/2024. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is 3:1. He highlights the significance of the loss of two S-300 launchers and associated radar for Ukraine. He describes these as "huge" losses, arguing that they are likely to be more valuable than all of the equipment lost by Russia that day. He explains that it's not simply the financial cost, but also the loss of capability and the impact this will have on Ukraine's ability to defend itself against missile and drone attacks. He states that Ukraine would "easily" swap all of their losses from 11/04/2024 in exchange for the two S-300 launchers and the radar.
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Analysis of visually confirmed Russian equipment losses (11/04/2024)
🎦 12:31-13:58⏩
Jonathan analyses the visually confirmed Russian equipment losses for 11/04/2024. He points to the loss of another T-90M tank, noting that Russia has been losing "quite a few" of them recently. He also highlights the number of golf carts that have been lost, which he sees as further evidence that the Russians are running low on vehicles. He explains that the golf carts were initially supplied by China via a New Zealand company but that the Russians did not start using them in large numbers until much later in the war, which suggests that they are now being forced to use them in more offensive roles closer to the front line.
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Russia Deploys Pacific Fleet to Ukraine
🎦 14:05-15:16⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from Ukrainian intelligence which states that Russia is redeploying 2,000 troops from its Pacific Fleet to Ukraine. He notes that this would be significant if true as it would indicate that Russia is facing a shortage of manpower, as it would mean they have had to halt rotations of troops to Syria and redeploy personnel from other units to make up for losses.
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Analysis of FPV Drone effectiveness
🎦 15:16-18:11⏩
Jonathan discusses an article which claimed that two-thirds of Ukrainian tank kills have been achieved using First-Person View (FPV) drones. Jonathan cites analysis by OSINT researcher Andrew Perpetua who found that only 30% of visually confirmed tank kills could be attributed to FPV drones, with the cause of 40% of tank kills being unknown. Jonathan explains that, while FPV footage provides clear evidence that a tank was destroyed by a drone, it is much harder to determine the cause of destruction when a tank is found destroyed in satellite imagery. Perpetua believes that most of the unknown causes of tank kills are probably due to artillery, drone-dropped bombs, and anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). Jonathan concludes that, while it's interesting to know how tanks are being destroyed, it doesn't really change the fact that they have been destroyed.
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Russia Running Out of Tanks and Armoured Vehicles?
🎦 18:11-19:25⏩
Jonathan discusses a report by Forbes that Russia will exhaust its stockpile of tanks and armoured vehicles by mid-2025. The report also suggests that 2024 represents Russia's last opportunity to secure a significant military victory. In contrast, Ukraine is expected to make significant progress in 2025 once its new mobilisation law is implemented. Jonathan shares his view that Ukraine's biggest challenge is to counter Russian missile and drone attacks, particularly the use of Kinzhal and Kh-69 missiles against energy infrastructure.
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Jonathan Rants about the Attacks on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure
🎦 19:25-20:52⏩
Jonathan expresses his anger and frustration about the Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. He points to the recent attack on the Trypilska thermal power plant near Kyiv, which he describes as a "serious" development. He argues that the fact that Russia was able to destroy an entire power station in a single attack suggests that they could do the same anywhere in Ukraine. This could lead to a complete collapse of the Ukrainian energy grid, which would have devastating consequences for the country. He expresses his dismay that more people are not taking the situation seriously. He refers to a recent conversation he had with Greg Terry and Professor Gerdes, both of whom share his concerns about the fragility of Ukraine's energy grid. He also criticises US politicians such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Mike Johnson for opposing aid to Ukraine, as well as the Biden administration for its reluctance to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles that could be used to strike targets inside Russia.
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Further Evidence that Russia is Running Out of Vehicles
🎦 20:52-22:37⏩
Jonathan discusses more evidence that Russia is running out of conventional military vehicles. He cites the use of Ural trucks and even golf carts in recent attacks, which he sees as a sign of desperation. He argues that Russia would not be using these vehicles if they had other options available to them. He shows footage of a Ural truck that has been fitted with cope cages to protect it from drone attacks, arguing that this is further evidence that the Russians are having to improvise in order to compensate for their losses.
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Ukrainian S-300 Battery Destroyed near Chornomorsk
🎦 22:37-23:48⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 battery near Chornomorsk. He shows imagery of the site, which shows three destroyed transporter erector launchers. He notes that Andrew Perpetua had previously identified two S-300 launchers as damaged and one as destroyed. He also points to the destruction of a nearby radar system, which he says was hit by cluster munitions. He describes this as "bad news" for the Ukrainians, as it will further degrade their air defence capabilities.
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Lancet Strike Destroys Ukrainian T-64BV Tank
🎦 23:48-24:48⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank by a Russian Lancet loitering munition (suicide drone). He notes that this is reportedly the 1,400th published attack involving a Lancet, which he describes as "pretty insane". He also highlights a tweet by War Vehicle Tracker, who described the number of Lancet attacks as "insane".
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Ukraine Deploys More "Mini-Hedgehogs" to Disrupt Russian Logistics
🎦 24:48-25:01⏩
Jonathan shows footage of more "mini-hedgehogs", small spiked devices, being deployed by Ukraine. He explains that these devices are designed to puncture the tires of Russian vehicles and that there is evidence to suggest that they have been effective. He cites a tweet by PS01, a Twitter account that posts updates on the war in Ukraine, which describes the mini-hedgehogs as "simple" and "effective".
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks 11/04/2024 - 12/04/2024
🎦 25:01-27:01⏩
Jonathan discusses the overnight drone and missile attacks. He states that it was a relatively quiet night, with only 1 out of 17 Shahed-136 drones getting through Ukrainian air defences. He mentions that he had a disagreement with another Twitter user about the capabilities of the IRIS-T air defence system, clarifying that the IRIS-T SLM is a medium-range system capable of engaging targets at ranges of up to 40km. He also notes that the death toll from a Russian missile strike on Odesa two nights ago has risen to six.
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Putin: Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Infrastructure are Retaliation
🎦 27:01-28:26⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's statement that the Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are in retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities. Jonathan is not surprised by this statement, describing Russia as "vindictive". He cites a report by TopLead which states that 97% of Russian strikes this year have been against civilian targets in Ukraine. He acknowledges that there may be some debate about whether certain targets, such as power stations, are legitimate military targets, but argues that the vast majority of Russian strikes have been against civilian infrastructure. He also highlights the fact that 80% of Ukraine's thermal power stations have been destroyed.
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Russia Using Kh-69 Missiles Against Ukrainian Infrastructure
🎦 28:26-29:00⏩
Jonathan discusses a report by Defence Express which states that Russia is using Kh-69 missiles to strike Ukrainian infrastructure. He explains that the Kh-69 has a range of 400km, which is 100km further than previously estimated. He also notes that the Kh-69 is more difficult to shoot down than the Kinzhal missile.
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Rostov: Explosion at Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery
🎦 29:00-29:39⏩
Jonathan discusses an explosion at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov. He states that drones were shot down over the city and that one drone may have landed on the refinery. The regional governor claims that there were no casualties or damage, but Jonathan is sceptical about these claims.
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Trypilska Thermal Power Plant Can Be Rebuilt But Needs Air Defences
🎦 29:39-30:28⏩
Jonathan reports that the Trypilska thermal power plant, which was badly damaged in the recent Russian attacks, can be restored, but that this will be pointless without adequate air defence. He cites a statement by Andriy Gerus, the chairman of the supervisory board of Ukraine's state energy company, Ukrenergo, who said that it would be "futile" to rebuild the plant without better air defences.
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Flooding in Russia
🎦 30:28-32:57⏩
Jonathan discusses widespread flooding that is occurring across Russia. He notes that the flooding is particularly bad in southern central Russia, where dams have burst and entire towns have been flooded. He shows footage of the flooding, describing it as a "human catastrophe". He highlights a report by Defence Express which states that the flooding has reached Russia's only BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle manufacturing plant. The report states that the water level could reach 12 metres, which would flood most of the city. Jonathan expresses his hope that the flooding will not cause too much damage to the plant, as this would have a significant impact on Russia's ability to produce new armoured vehicles. He also discusses the flooding in Orenburg, where a mass evacuation has been ordered.
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Ukraine Begins Construction of New European Gauge Railway
🎦 32:57-35:07⏩
Jonathan lightheartedly complains about the spelling of "Chop-Uzhhorod", before moving on to talk about the construction of a new European gauge railway line between Chop and Uzhhorod in western Ukraine. He explains that this is a major step towards Ukraine's integration with the EU, as it will allow for the seamless movement of goods and people between Ukraine and Europe. He notes that, at present, goods and passengers have to be transferred to different trains at the Ukrainian border because of the different rail gauges used in Ukraine and the EU. He explains that the new railway line will allow for direct passenger routes from Uzhhorod to Vienna, Bratislava, Budapest, Prague, Bucharest, and other major European cities. He believes that the integration of Ukraine's rail network with the EU will be crucial for the country's economic and cultural development.
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Ukraine Blocks Supply of Drone and Missile Components to Russia
🎦 35:07-36:04⏩
Jonathan discusses a report which states that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has blocked the supply of components destined for Russia that were intended for use in the production of 1,600 Shahed-136 drones and 4,000 cruise missiles. He expresses his hope that this will disrupt Russia's ability to produce these weapons.
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Corruption in Ukraine
🎦 36:04-38:47⏩
Jonathan discusses the dismissal of a number of Ukrainian officials, including the head of the SBU's cybersecurity department, Ilya Vityuk, who has been reassigned to the front line after an investigation revealed discrepancies in his property holdings. He also notes that the head of recruitment in Kyiv has been demoted after it was revealed that he had attempted to issue draft summons to a journalist. Jonathan argues that corruption is a serious problem in Ukraine, particularly when it comes to recruitment. He explains that it is relatively easy for people to bribe recruitment officials in order to avoid being drafted into the military, and that this is a major problem for the Ukrainian government. He notes that President Zelensky has taken a hard line on corruption, dismissing a number of regional recruitment officials last year in an attempt to crack down on the problem. Jonathan concludes by stating that corruption is "human nature" and that it is an unfortunate reality of war.
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Ukraine: Hold out during 2024 and an Offensive is Possible in 2025
🎦 38:47-39:39⏩
Jonathan discusses a report in the French newspaper Le Figaro which states that Ukrainian officials have told their French counterparts that they need help to hold out for the rest of 2024, after which they believe they will be in a position to launch a counteroffensive in 2025. Jonathan agrees with this assessment, arguing that the key to Ukraine's success is its ability to withstand Russian attacks and rebuild its armed forces. He reiterates his belief that air defences are crucial, and that Ukraine needs more Patriot systems in order to protect its cities and infrastructure.
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Wrap Up
🎦 39:39-39:44⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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