Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News, Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is where it is important for Ukraine. Iran are one of the biggest supporters of Russia, and you need these people to continue protesting. You need some changes there."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual caveats about the accuracy of Ukrainian figures on Russian losses, which he finds useful despite potential propaganda. He notes 740 liquidated Russian personnel for the previous day, which is down from recent record highs but still above the war average. Significant losses of tanks, APCs, artillery systems and other equipment are also reported.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses and shell hunger
- According to a Forbes article, Russia may be running out of T-72 tanks faster than thought, with an estimated 2/3 lost. Remaining tanks are older and lower quality.
- Video footage from a Russian soldier shows 5 tanks destroyed by Ukrainian kamikaze drones with RPG rounds attached.
- Documents found on a captured Russian officer near Vuhledar reveal very high casualty rates from failed assaults.
- UK intelligence update states Russia is facing severe artillery ammunition shortages, leading to shell rationing. This is a key reason no Russian formation has been able to generate significant offensive action recently. Russia is resorting to using old, previously unfit munition stocks.
- A Russian party functionary claims ammunition shortages are felt along the whole front line and can only be explained by sabotage. Jonathan sees this as a "fallacy of invincibility" - an inability to accept fault.
Bakhmut and Russian offensives
- Pro-Russian nationalist Igor Girkin suggests there has been little Russian progress in Bakhmut recently and that this plays into Ukrainian hands as they wear down Wagner forces. He is also critical of Russian attempts to capture settlements near Avdiivka.
- However, two major US newspapers (NYT and WaPo) have published articles with very different tones - one stressing Russian casualties and lack of success, the other focusing on high Ukrainian casualties and declining morale.
- Jonathan remains unsure if holding Bakhmut is the right decision for Ukraine as Russians continue to make small gains. The nearby towns of Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka are under increasing artillery fire.
Attacks, air defenses and partisan activity
- Belgorod in Russia has been under attack again with air defenses active.
- Russia fired 5 missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Sumy and Donetsk, killing and injuring civilians. The Russian Air Force has increased activity recently with 35 airstrikes reported.
- Ukraine launched 10 airstrikes on Russian concentration areas, hitting ammunition depots and electronic warfare systems. The 3.5:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian airstrikes may indicate something about the state of Ukrainian air defenses.
- Partisan activity continues behind Russian lines in occupied areas like Zaporizhzhia, locating artillery and ammunition stores that are later hit by Ukrainian forces. Fires at warehouses in temporarily occupied Crimea have also occurred.
Legal developments and protests
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) intends to open war crimes cases against Russia, seeking arrest warrants for several people. The cases allege Russia abducted Ukrainian children and deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure.
- While Russia has not tried to hide the relocation of thousands of Ukrainian children, presenting it as a humanitarian mission, Ukraine and the US State Dept. consider this a war crime.
- However, actually bringing Russians to trial may prove difficult. The US has evidence but is reluctant to share it, fearing it could set a precedent endangering Americans in future conflicts.
- In Iran, 22,000 detained anti-government protesters were pardoned, but Jonathan would like to see more significant change in the regime, as Iran is a major supporter of Russia. He encourages viewers to watch his previous interview with an Iranian friend for insights into the protest movement.
Geopolitical shifts and military aid
- Serbian economy minister Rade Basta has called for the government to impose sanctions on Russia, saying the country is paying a high price for not doing so. Jonathan sees this as part of a larger trend of key Russian allies like Brazil, India, Hungary and Turkey repositioning themselves as they weigh the long-term prospects of aligning with Russia vs. the West.
- The AUKUS security pact between Australia, the UK and the US has agreed to a deal on building nuclear submarines with interchangeable components from each nation. This is seen as an important geopolitical alignment aimed at countering China.
- Ukrainian soldiers are nearing the end of Leopard 2 tank training in several European countries with positive performance assessments. Older Leopard 1 tanks are also expected to arrive in Ukraine starting in May, initially for training purposes. Poland's PT-91 tanks, a T-72 upgrade, are already in service with Ukrainian forces.
- Jonathan speculates Poland and Slovakia may soon announce the transfer of MiG aircraft to Ukraine.
Domestic US politics and support for Ukraine
Jonathan, while acknowledging his liberal political leanings, pushes back against a viewer who accused him of attacking Republicans as a whole in a previous video. He clarifies that a vocal minority of Republican lawmakers have opposed aid for Ukraine, but he does not believe this view would substantially change US policy if the GOP retakes the White House. However, Jonathan is troubled by recent comments from Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis describing the war as a "territorial dispute" and not a vital US interest. He suspects DeSantis may be trying to win over Trump's MAGA base with this rhetoric while keeping moderate conservatives on board. If elected, Jonathan speculates DeSantis' stance could shift based on counsel from military advisors. He invites thoughtful discussion from conservative viewers on DeSantis' position and its implications if he becomes the Republican nominee. Some former military leaders have already expressed concern about DeSantis' comments.
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Putin's health speculation
Jonathan discusses recent footage of a meeting between Putin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. He notes that Kadyrov appeared nervous and shaky, despite his usual bravado, and that the conversation seemed largely substanceless, with Kadyrov simply praising Chechnya's achievements. More notably, Jonathan points to how Putin is gripping the table, suggesting he may be trying to hide tremors or other symptoms. Combined with previous reports about Putin's health, such as frequent visits from cancer specialists and possible steroid treatments, Jonathan argues there is credible evidence that Putin is quite ill, perhaps with Parkinson's disease and cancer. While acknowledging some may dismiss this as petty or speculative, Jonathan contends Putin's health could help explain recent irrational decision-making and aggression. He has compiled the various data points into an article for those who want to explore the topic further.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching this extended 40-minute news update and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He will be back shortly with a frontline update.
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