Ukraine Conflict: Kursk Front Update
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"And then I wonder, is that a benefit or an issue for the Russians?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a Kursk Front Line Update - a more focused update due to time constraints. He's using Andrew Perpetua's map today.
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Minimal Movement at Kursk
🎦 00:27-04:12⏩
Jonathan begins by pointing out that Andrew Perpetua's maps show minimal movement in the last 48 hours. There's a new grey zone in the Lubimovka area - evidence from geolocated footage shows Russian and Ukrainian activity in the area. This is where the Russians made significant gains in the opening days of the counteroffensive. Jonathan questions how much of a defence Ukraine will mount given there's activity elsewhere on the front. He explains that the Ukrainians may be trying to distract the Russians who are making inroads to the west, by attacking their flanks. He describes the geography of the salient - a rectangular area bordered by a river to the north, with permanent and pontoon bridges destroyed - hindering the movement of equipment and personnel. The Ukrainians control three sides of the rectangle (east, south, west), the Russians the northern side. He highlights how the Ukrainians are attacking on the eastern side, whilst the Russians are attacking westwards. There's also been activity (attacks) in other areas.
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Analysis: Have Russian Advances Slowed?
🎦 04:12-04:41⏩
Jonathan's assessment: Russian advances appear to have slowed. How many troops do they have? Initial reports from Suriyak Maps suggested 30,000, then 40,000, and then Zelenskyy claimed 40,000-60,000. However, this may be how many they intend to deploy to the area, rather than actual numbers.
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ISW: Russian and Ukrainian Advances (13th September)
🎦 04:41-06:59⏩
Jonathan references the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - dated 14/09/2024 but based on events from the previous day:
- Both sides made advances in the area on 13/09/2024.
- Geolocated footage from 12/09/2024 suggests Ukrainian forces have advanced north east of Chuikasheve Perichne. Jonathan is unsure if this is recent but a pro-Ukrainian source from 13/09/2024 suggests they have reclaimed ground in the area (north of Sudzha). Andrew Perpetua's map shows no change in control and heavy shelling from 12/09/2024 (but no activity in the last 2 days apart from an airstrike).
- Geolocated footage from 13/09/2024 shows Russian forces operating in the centre of Snagost, suggesting they have seized the settlement (a Russian flag has been raised) - Andrew Perpetua's map has been updated to reflect this.
- Russian sources claim they have also seized Prokrovsky and Obukovka (south east of Koronovka and Snagost) - ISW has been unable to verify this.
- Russian milbloggers claim Russian forces are advancing from Konopelka (east of Sudzha and west of Liubimovka, and south east of Koronovka). Jonathan is unsure of the location of Konopelka but has located Ruskaya Konopelka on the map. Andrew Perpetua's maps show the Ukrainians pushing on the eastern flank and the Russians pushing west.
- Russian milbloggers claim Russian forces conducted counterattacks along the Liubimovka-Tolstoy-Lugdarino line, as close as 3km north of the Sumy Oblast border, and have cleared Krasno-Oktoberg. This is the main axis that the Russians are currently focused on.
ISW: Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Operations
🎦 07:20-07:46⏩
Continuing his analysis of the ISW report, Jonathan states:
- Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations near Obukovka, Olgovka and south east of Sudzha, near Borki (an area the Russians have targeted with shelling, drone attacks and assaults).
Analysis: Challenges of Troop Deployment and Logistics
🎦 08:42-10:36⏩
- Jonathan points out the confusing place names in the area, highlighting Obukhova and Obukhova which are close together and easily mistaken for each other.
- Further analysis from ISW/Intel Schizo - Russian authorities are looking to increase troop numbers in the area from 40,000 to 120,000 in order to push the Ukrainians out of Kursk.
- Jonathan believes there's some confusion in the wording used but highlights how difficult the terrain is to attack (and easy to defend), and how limited the infrastructure and approaches are (making ambushes easier) - especially if the Ukrainians have fortified the high ground.
- This will be particularly problematic when transporting large numbers of troops and equipment by train. This is why the Ukrainians will find it easy to target Russian logistics and troop concentrations (which will be in a relatively small area) with drones, artillery, HIMARS and Western missiles.
Reporting from Ukraine, Euromaidan Press and Russian Troop Redeployments
🎦 10:36-12:11⏩
- Reporting from Ukraine (published in the Euromaiden Press on 14/09/2024) describes a deteriorating situation for the Russians in and around Khronovo, with the risk of encirclement by Ukrainian forces. This has forced the Russians to redeploy troops and equipment to alleviate the pressure.
- This is the reason why the Russians have redeployed troops from the Prokhorovka region (elements of the 15th Motorised Rifle Brigade and the 1st Sloviansk Brigade) - to launch counterattacks around Kurovo.
- This is the first indication that Russia has been forced to pull troops away from other areas of the front line (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Pokrovsk) - one of the key objectives of the Kursk operation.
Tendar: Russian Losses at Liubimovka
🎦 12:11-14:07⏩
- Tendar reports that Russian forces are using infantry fighting vehicles to try and take the village of Liubimovka, an area they are heavily attacking.
- The presence of BMDs suggests that Russian VDV units (elite paratroopers of the 51st Airborne Regiment) are involved.
- The footage may show geolocated events, and along with the 15th Motorised Rifle Brigade and the 1st Sloviansk Brigade, suggests Russia is deploying its best troops in the area.
- Heavy Russian casualties have been reported, with at least 5 BMDs destroyed and an unknown number of troops eliminated.
- This is further evidence that the Russians are suffering heavy losses. Yesterday, both Andrew Perpetua and the General Staff reported high infantry fighting vehicle losses for the Russians. Jonathan points out that Andrew Perpetua is also reporting high Russian losses today.
No Reports: Ukrainian Advances, Russian Doom Posting and Geolocated Footage
🎦 14:07-21:10⏩
- Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have captured Vesele (north of the salient).
- Ukrainian military sources report that the Ukrainian Army has advanced more than 4km into Russian territory in the Hlushkove direction. This corresponds with the capture of Vesele.
- Malcontent News reports that fighting has been ongoing in the area of Medveze for the last three days, with some sources even mapping the area. This represents a second axis of attack by Ukrainian forces. Malcontent news has added a small Ukrainian advance across the border on their map (but not as far as Medveze), stating that Russian reports claiming they are "holding the line but it is difficult, the enemy are pulling up reserves" are code for "we have lost positions".
- Two Russian sources have made claims about Ukrainian advances as far as Hlushkovo Workers Camp (not to be confused with Hlushkovo itself, which lies to the south east). Jonathan is unsure where this location is.
- Nasa Firms data (whilst not proof) shows a lot of heat signatures east of Vesele and as far north as Sukhinovka. Nasa Firms data also shows a lot of hot spots (fires) in Obuvka and west of Liubimovka.
- Despite a lot of grey area on the maps due to the uncertainty, Russian milbloggers are beginning to 'doom'.
- There are also reports of drone strikes in Shypytivka (another location Jonathan has to look up), with Malcontent News confirming that activity in the area (Koronovka) is increasing.
- Malcontent News highlights a geolocated video showing Russian VDV units being destroyed west of Liubimovka, confirming the line of conflict east of Snagost. They are less sure about the area south/south west of Snagost.
- A geolocated video of a Ukrainian airstrike on a Russian position south of Komarova on the railroad line (west of Oktyabrskiy) provides further data and confirms the presence of Russian troops in the area.
- A Ukrainian drone strike on a pick up truck on the road between Apanosivka and has been reported - Jonathan notes how dangerous the roads are in the area and how the Ukrainians are hunting down Russian vehicles. This has already been reported much further north on the Rilsk-Luhove road.
- He concludes by pointing out that the Russian counteroffensive is now in its sixth day, and that Snigost has been the only settlement they've managed to retake.
DeepState Map and Evidence of Ukrainian Success
🎦 21:10-22:24⏩
- Looking at DeepState Map, Max24 claims that Ukrainian forces have retaken Vitrianya, Durovka, and part of Zhuravli. Andrew Perpetua's map shows that two of these settlements are under Ukrainian control, and have been for some time.
- Many videos are emerging suggesting that the Ukrainians are hitting back hard and that Russian attacks are being repelled. Jonathan comments that there was a great deal of operational security from the Ukrainians when they were on the offensive (hence less footage).
Euromaidan Press: Ukrainian Airborne Troops Destroy Russian Convoy
🎦 22:31-22:54⏩
- Euromaidan Press reports that Ukrainian airborne troops have destroyed a Russian convoy of 14 armoured vehicles en route to Ukrainian positions. Russian losses include 5 airborne combat vehicles, a tank, an APC and dozens of troops.
POW Exchange - Russian Conscripts Returned to the Front Line
🎦 22:54-25:15⏩
- Igor Sushko reports that for the second day in a row, a prisoner of war exchange has taken place. 49 were swapped yesterday, and today 103 Russian conscripts captured in Kursk were exchanged (this may not be entirely accurate, but Jonathan doesn't know how verifiable it is).
- According to shocked family members, these men have been returned straight back to military bases near the front line, despite expressing delight at going home.
- Jonathan wonders if this will be a benefit or an issue for the Russians - on the one hand they can recycle troops quickly and return them to the front line, but on the other hand there is the social fallout from families who are unhappy that their loved ones have been sent back to fight.
Analysis: The Kursk Counteroffensive
🎦 25:15-27:55⏩
- Jonathan concludes his analysis by reflecting on the significance of the events in Kursk. He believes that:
- The Russian counterattack has slowed after initial gains.
- Smaller gains are being made by the Russians, and at great cost.
- Ukrainians are pushing in several areas, worrying the Russians.
- Russian sources (via WarTranslated) are 'dooming' and confirming Ukrainian advances.
- The situation for the Ukrainians is looking more positive than when the Russians first launched the counteroffensive.
- Russian counterattacks are to be expected as they outnumber the Ukrainians.
- Analysts believe that it will be a much bigger, longer operation than anticipated to take back the territory.
- 120,000 troops will be needed (rather than 60,000), and will have to be pulled from other areas of the front line (such as Prokhorovka).
- Ukrainian gains in other areas of the front line are likely to be a result of redeployments - for example, the Ukrainians have reportedly taken back much of Vovchansk in the east and are having some success north of Kupiansk.
- He concludes by stating how fluid the situation is and how much is still to unfold.
Wrap up
🎦 27:55-28:01⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Where is Hlushkovo Workers Camp? Is this the same as Hlushkovo?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a Front Line update for Kursk - a specific region/front. This should help split the topics up as it's a more granular update.
TASK 1: Extract the title, date and part. The date format needs to be changed to DD/MM/YYYY.
TASK 2: Create topics for the Hello Team, Maps used, Analysis (ISW), Claims (various sources including Russian/Ukrainian sources and milbloggers), Analysis, POW exchange, Wrap up
TASK 3: Add the timestamps for each topic.
TASK 4: Summarise each of the topics. Lots of place names/cross referencing with the maps will be needed - also include opinions and insights. Make sure I capture Jonathans' personality - humour, asides, rants - e.g. "is that a benefit or an issue for the Russians?". For the POW exchange, it's important to include the ethical/moral dilemma and potential fallout for Russia.
TASK 5: There are a few quotes I could use, need to decide which one is best once the rest of the tasks are complete.
TASK 6: Check for anything I didn't understand.