Ukraine War Live Update: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:53⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a live Ukraine war news update, the second one for the 31st of October 2024. He explains that he's doing a live stream due to the sheer volume of news he wants to cover before going out for curry with friends. He mentions mapping updates and welcomes viewers. Jonathan notes the significance of the day's news, highlighting the substantial amount of military aid and geopolitical updates. He mentions the possibility of Matt Bishop joining the live stream from Australia.
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Ramstein Meeting and Nordic Nation Support
🎦 02:10-11:47⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein) meetings, highlighting that the next one is scheduled in the coming weeks. He then focuses on the impressive support from the Nordic states for Ukraine. He praises their commitment to aiding Ukraine, particularly through direct investment in Ukraine's defense industry.
- Jonathan specifically mentions Alexander Kamyshin's statement about Nordic countries being prepared to purchase weapons made in Ukraine, following the "Danish Model".
- He provides the example of Ukraine producing 20 Bogdan self-propelled artillery systems per month, highlighting the benefits of direct investment in Ukraine's manufacturing capability.
- He emphasises the Nordic states' commitment to indefinite military support for Ukraine and their endorsement of Zelensky's victory plan and Ukraine's NATO membership.
- Jonathan highlights Norway's significant financial contributions:
- Over $118 million for F-16 spare parts and six F-16s to be delivered this year.
- A new package worth 500 million euros, including F-16s, NASAMs air defence systems.
- He acknowledges that while the U.S. and Germany provide vast amounts of equipment, the Nordic nations are playing a crucial role and stepping up their support.
- Jonathan mentions Stephen Vandal, a Norwegian official who consistently emphasises the need for more support, despite already substantial contributions.
- Jonathan reads an article about Norway's opposition parties uniting to encourage the government to significantly increase aid to Ukraine, potentially multiplying funds tenfold.
Lithuania Military Aid Update
🎦 11:48-13:04⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Baltic nations, specifically Lithuania, which recently delivered a new military aid package to Ukraine. The package includes generators, ammunition, and mortar shells to help Ukraine prepare for the upcoming winter.
- He highlights Lithuania's substantial contributions since the war began:
- Over 705 million euros in military support.
- Over 1 billion euros in total assistance, a significant amount considering Lithuania's small population and GDP.
Nordic Air Force Integration
🎦 13:04-16:16⏩
Jonathan dives deeper into the Nordic countries' growing military strength, discussing their air force integration, which has been described as a "mini-NATO".
- He references an article detailing the combined air power of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, highlighting their possession of over 250 combat aircraft, a force comparable to that of a large European nation.
- He lists the advanced fighter jets within these air forces, including the F-35 Lightning II, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F/A-18 Hornet, and JAS-39 Gripen E.
- Jonathan specifically notes Sweden's strong surveillance aircraft fleet and their role in monitoring the Nordic and Baltic regions, sharing intelligence with allies.
- He outlines the advantages of unifying the Nordic air forces:
- Integrated air command and operations.
- Flexible and resilient air base network.
- Shared air situational awareness.
- Common air education, training, and exercises.
- He discusses the transition to fifth-generation F-35s within these air forces and Sweden's plans to invest in their own fifth-generation stealth fighter, the Fligsystem 2020, as a potential alternative to the F-35.
- Jonathan emphasises the strategic implication of this integration: nearly 150 F-35s will operate near the Russian border, challenging Russia's air dominance in the region.
- He argues that this development underscores the counterproductive nature of Russia's actions, as their aggression has driven the formation of this unified air force.
Druk Army - Ukrainian 3D Printing Cooperative
🎦 16:16-18:22⏩
Jonathan focuses on Druk Army, a Ukrainian grassroots 3D printing cooperative that supplies the Ukrainian military.
- He credits Anton Gerashchenko for bringing this initiative to his attention.
- He explains that Druk Army uses a network of over 10,000 3D printers across Ukraine and abroad to produce vital supplies for the Ukrainian army, delivered directly to the frontlines.
- Druk Army started as a volunteer initiative by popular blogger Yevhen Volnov and has grown into a major production operation with R&D, quality control, a coordination platform, established logistics, and constant feedback from the military.
- They have supplied over 275 tons of equipment to the Ukrainian armed forces, from artillery shells and drone release systems to protective eye gear and prosthetics.
- The production is largely covered by volunteer printers themselves, supplemented by donations from Ukrainian companies and foundations. This funding model allows Druk Army to supply parts directly to the military free of charge.
3D Printing and the UK
🎦 18:22-20:15⏩
Continuing on the topic of 3D printing, Jonathan highlights its increasing utility in modern warfare.
- He mentions the UK's contribution of 3D printing technology to Ukraine, enabling the production of metal parts for obsolete equipment near the frontlines, reducing reliance on external supply chains.
Ukrainian Air Defence: "Zbroyar" ZU-23-2 "Eurekleon" System and Drone Defence
🎦 20:15-20:44⏩
Jonathan showcases a video of the Ukrainian "Zbroyar" ZU-23-2 "Eurekleon" air defence system, which is highly effective at rapidly firing into the air to intercept targets.
- He points out the system's effectiveness in taking down a drone using airburst ammunition with tungsten submunitions.
- Jonathan explains the concept of airburst shells, similar to those used in artillery, where the shell explodes above the target, spraying shrapnel in a cone shape downward for greater coverage and efficiency compared to direct hits.
South Korean Shell Backfilling
🎦 20:44-21:46⏩
Jonathan addresses a user comment from Colby Badwar regarding potential backfilling deals between the U.S. and South Korea for 155mm artillery shells.
- Jonathan clarifies that this would involve South Korea supplying shells to the U.S., indirectly supporting Ukraine's artillery needs.
- He notes that the South Korean National Defence Minister has stated that "nothing is determined" regarding such a deal.
Zelensky's Request to Poland and NATO's Involvement
🎦 21:46-23:42⏩
Jonathan reports on Zelensky's revelation that Ukraine asked Poland to help protect a Ukrainian gas storage facility from Russian missiles, but Poland declined due to concerns about NATO involvement.
- Jonathan highlights Zelensky's frustration with NATO's reluctance to directly intervene in defending Ukrainian infrastructure, comparing it to NATO's willingness to shoot down Iranian rockets and drones over Israel.
- He suggests that Poland and Romania are likely willing to engage in such actions but are hesitant without explicit NATO authorisation.
- Jonathan argues that NATO's differing levels of involvement in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict (which he refers to as the Israel-Iran conflict) highlight a double standard based on Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.
Zelensky and Polish MiG-29s
🎦 23:42-23:49⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions Zelensky reiterating Ukraine's interest in receiving MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland, but notes that Poland has not transferred the aircraft, citing "other new reasons" without providing specifics.
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French Military Aid: Drones and Shells
🎦 23:49-27:00⏩
Jonathan covers French military aid to Ukraine, referencing reports from French Air to Ukraine and drone manufacturer Delair Tech.
- He reports that 100 Delair drones will be delivered to France in early November for onward transport to Ukraine.
- These drones are designed for easy use by infantry without specialised training and are claimed to be resistant to Russian jamming systems.
- In 2023, France ordered 150 Delair observation drones for Ukraine, which are known for their silent operation.
- Jonathan also mentions the Calibri kamikaze drone, which will be delivered to the French armed forces before being sent to Ukraine. He notes that Adonis Delair, the drone manufacturer, claims these drones have not been intercepted or jammed by Russian electronic warfare systems.
- Jonathan highlights another French contribution: the procurement of nearly 66,000 shell bodies for 155mm artillery shells, facilitated by Forge d'Itabre and in cooperation with a Ukrainian public company.
- He then discusses France's efforts to support the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into Caesar self-propelled howitzers to enhance targeting accuracy and ammunition efficiency.
- Jonathan praises Ukrainian mathematicians and programmers for their skill and adaptability in utilizing AI with limited resources, contrasting their approach with the more rigid structure of the Russian army.
October Summary of German Aid to Ukraine
🎦 27:00-29:12⏩
Jonathan provides a comprehensive summary of German military aid deliveries to Ukraine during October, demonstrating the substantial support Germany has been providing. The list includes:
- One IRIS-T SLM medium-range surface-to-air missile system
- Two short-range surface-to-air missile launchers
- 30 Vector drones
- 6 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery systems
- 8 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks
- 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles
- 4 MRAPs
- 1 Bridgelaying tank, a mine plough, and 2 mine-clearing tanks
- 3,000 RGW-90s (anti-tank guided missile launchers)
- 100 man-portable mine-clearing systems
- 90 mine detectors
- Rifles, sniper rifles, assault rifles, pistols
- Missiles, ammunition for tanks, chest seals, tourniquets, laser rangefinders, and other equipment.
German Aid: Croatian Tanks & IFVs and Sidewinder Missiles
🎦 29:12-29:35⏩
Continuing with German aid, Jonathan explains:
- Germany has pledged 30 main battle tanks and 30 infantry fighting vehicles originally destined for Croatia, effectively funding Croatia's military upgrade while freeing up their existing equipment for Ukraine.
- Germany has also pledged Sidewinder missiles, winter clothing, and automatic grenade launcher ammunition.
UK and German Sea King Helicopters Armed with Missiles
🎦 29:35-30:08⏩
Jonathan reports on the UK and Germany jointly arming Ukrainian Sea King helicopters with modern missiles for enhanced offensive capabilities. Ukraine is set to receive six Sea Kings from Germany and has already received three from the UK. The article stresses the commitment of both countries to supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes to counter Russian aggression.
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UK Autumn Budget: Military Aid for Ukraine and Defence Spending
🎦 30:08-35:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent UK Autumn Budget, noting its positive aspects, particularly the allocation of £3 billion ($3.8 billion) per year in guaranteed military support for Ukraine.
- He praises Chancellor Rachel Reeves for ring-fencing this funding, demonstrating a long-term commitment to aiding Ukraine.
- Jonathan cites former Conservative Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's acknowledgment of the Labour government's defence spending increase, leaving the door open for a future expenditure of 2.5% of GDP on defence.
- However, he raises concerns about whether the £3 billion allocated to Ukraine will come from the Ministry of Defence's (MoD) budget, potentially impacting the UK military's core funding.
- Jonathan further quotes Ben Wallace's statement on the need for increased defence spending in light of the "axis of evil" threat posed by Russia, North Korea, and other allies.
- Jonathan delves into the complexities faced by governments in balancing domestic priorities like healthcare and education with the need to address international threats like Russia. He acknowledges the tension between investing in both, and expresses his own preference for Labour's emphasis on public services while still providing substantial military aid to Ukraine.
Mike Martin's Thread on the Russian Threat
🎦 35:41-45:27⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by UK MP Mike Martin, who emphasises that Russia's actions represent the most significant strategic threat to the UK.
- Martin argues that the war in Ukraine is the epicentre of this threat and criticizes the House of Commons for spending more time debating the Middle East, which he considers less strategically important for the UK.
- Jonathan agrees wholeheartedly with Martin's assessment, reiterating that the Ukraine-Russia war is the most crucial geopolitical issue globally, connecting China, Iran, North Korea, energy, resources, food security, and the wider international order.
- He argues that the Middle East conflict, while still important, pales in comparison to the implications of the Ukraine-Russia war.
- Jonathan then summarises Martin's analysis of the war's current stalemate, where both sides are waiting for the other to collapse. He outlines the initial strategies of both sides: Russia believing the West would lack staying power and give up, and the West expecting sanctions and international pressure to swiftly cripple the Russian economy.
- Jonathan acknowledges the flaws in both strategies, as Russia's economy has proved more resilient than anticipated, and Western support, while significant, hasn't led to a quick Ukrainian victory.
- He suggests that the West's strategy of waiting out Russia is failing, as Russia is exploiting the stalemate to pursue offensive actions elsewhere in Europe.
- Jonathan then delves into Martin's criticisms of the Biden administration's fear of escalation, arguing that this has emboldened Russia.
- He echoes Martin's call for Europe to step up and roll back Russian activity, starting with ensuring a Ukrainian victory.
- Jonathan then lists several examples of Russian malign activity in Europe and beyond, highlighting the pervasive nature of the threat:
- Election interference in Georgia and Moldova.
- Wagner Group activities in Sudan, Central African Republic, Mali, and the Sahel region.
- Increased Russian submarine and naval activity off the west coast of Ireland and the Iceland Gap.
- Russia's involvement in Syria and Libya.
- Subversive activities within European states.
- Jonathan concludes by agreeing with Martin's assessment that a Ukrainian loss would be catastrophic, opening up a "Pandora's Box" of strategic risks:
- Emboldened Russian activity in Europe.
- Increased nuclear proliferation, as other nations may see nuclear weapons as the only guarantee against aggression.
- A potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, emboldened by a perceived Western weakness.
UK Strategic Defence Review
🎦 45:27-47:06⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the UK's ongoing Strategic Defence Review, highlighting concerns about the limited scope of the review.
- He notes that the review is being conducted solely by the MoD, rather than as a whole-of-government exercise, potentially limiting its strategic depth.
- Jonathan expresses concern that without a broader strategic framework, the review might become a "Treasury-led cost-cutting exercise" instead of a comprehensive assessment of the UK's defence needs in light of the changing geopolitical landscape.
Russia: North Korean Troops and UN Security Council Meeting
🎦 47:06-48:21⏩
Jonathan moves on to news regarding Russia, reporting that Ukraine has convened a UN Security Council meeting in response to the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia.
- He notes the meeting was held after 22:50 UK time and expresses concern about Russia's ability to influence the Security Council's response due to its permanent membership.
- Jonathan then highlights the statement by Mike Turner, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, urging the US and NATO to consider direct military intervention if North Korean troops enter Ukrainian territory.
Western Response to North Korean Troops: Lloyd Austin's Statement and Jonathan's Criticism
🎦 48:21-50:00⏩
Jonathan expresses his frustration with the vague response from Western powers, particularly the US, regarding the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.
- He criticizes US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's statement that North Korea's involvement could lead to new forms of support for Kyiv, arguing that the ambiguity of "could" undermines the deterrent effect.
- Jonathan argues that the US should set clear red lines, stating definitively that North Korean participation in the war will trigger specific consequences, leaving the responsibility for escalation with Russia.
North Korean Generals in Russia
🎦 50:00-50:26⏩
Jonathan reports that three North Korean generals have arrived in Russia, citing information from Reuters and Ukrainian authorities. He lists the generals:
- King Jong Un (head of Special Forces)
- King Yong Bok (deputy chief of the DPRK General Staff)
- Commander of the Intelligence Bureau (name not provided).
Jonathan considers this development to be a significant escalation.
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New Russian Anti-Drone Technology and Chinese Sanctions
🎦 50:26-52:45⏩
Jonathan discusses two developments: a new Russian anti-drone system and Chinese sanctions impacting a key drone supplier for Ukraine.
- He describes the "Tiger" net launcher designed to capture Mavic drones, acknowledging Russia's apparent edge in this technology compared to Ukraine's more costly tactic of using drones to intercept other drones.
- Jonathan then expresses significant concern about China's sanctioning of US drone manufacturer Skydio, blocking critical components and batteries. He notes that while some argue this is purely economic protectionism, others believe it is a deliberate attempt to hinder Ukraine's military capabilities.
- He fears this could escalate into a wider trade war between China and the West, impacting the supply of crucial equipment to Ukraine.
Analysis of a Russian Tank with Improvised Drone Protection
🎦 52:45-55:14⏩
Jonathan analyses a photo of a Russian tank with improvised modifications for protection against FPV drones.
- He points out that the turret is immobile, limiting the tank's firing arc or rendering the gun entirely unusable.
- He speculates whether this is a result of a damaged turret that was hastily modified rather than sent back for repairs, highlighting the potential strain on Russian repair capabilities and logistical challenges.
- Jonathan then suggests that the modification, while better than nothing, is ultimately suboptimal, as it sacrifices the tank's firepower for limited drone protection.
- He argues that the ideal scenario would be to have a separate, purpose-built APC for troop transport alongside a tank with proper drone protection, indicating a possible shortage of APCs and raising questions about the continued relevance of tanks in modern warfare.
Samuel Bendett's Assessment of Tank Modifications
🎦 55:14-56:03⏩
Jonathan cites analysis by Samuel Bendett, who describes the tank's improvised drone protection as multi-layered.
- The first layer is a net intended to trigger drone warheads or entangle the drone.
- The second layer is an armor frame to absorb impact.
- The third layer consists of the tank's original armor with additional dynamic protection.
Bendett acknowledges that while this provides some protection against FPV drones, it severely limits the tank's visibility, mobility, and fighting capability.
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Matt Bishop Joins and Iranian Criticism of Russian Air Defence
🎦 56:03-57:15⏩
Matt Bishop joins the live stream, and Jonathan quickly wraps up his previous topic before addressing Iranian criticism of Russia's air defence systems.
- He highlights reports that Iranian media and politicians are criticizing the failure of S-300 systems to protect against Israeli airstrikes, with some accusing Russia of treachery.
Russia's Economic Challenges
🎦 57:15-58:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the growing economic challenges Russia faces in financing the war against Ukraine.
- He cites reports that Russia will need to raise taxes further to cover its rapidly increasing military spending, indicating that existing revenue-raising measures are insufficient.
- Jonathan argues that these challenges demonstrate the effectiveness of sanctions in impacting the Russian economy, despite their slower-than-expected impact.
- He highlights a Bloomberg report about sanctioned LNG ships accumulating off Russia's eastern coast due to the suspension of operations at the Arctic LNG2 plant and difficulty finding buyers, further illustrating the impact of sanctions on Russia's ability to export hydrocarbons.
Conversation with Matt Bishop: War Fatigue and Personal Impact
🎦 58:51-01:01:19⏩
Jonathan and Matt Bishop have a conversation about the emotional toll of the war and the impact on their perspectives.
- Matt expresses the challenges of constantly receiving news of Ukrainian casualties and the emotional burden of feeling like "chalking people off."
- Jonathan acknowledges the depression cycles associated with covering the war's grim realities but maintains a sense of optimism.
- They briefly discuss Matt's impressive collection of NATO patches from his military service, with Jonathan offering to send him a patch from the NAFO fundraising campaign.
French Response to North Korean Troops
🎦 01:01:19-01:02:53⏩
Jonathan returns to geopolitical news, reporting that France summoned North Korea's ambassador to Paris to convey strong messages about their troop deployment in Russia.
- He quotes the French statement condemning the deployment as a threat to European security and an internationalization of the conflict.
- However, Jonathan expresses frustration with the lack of concrete action and the continued reliance on vague warnings rather than setting firm red lines for Russia.
- He argues that the West should dictate the terms of escalation rather than reacting to Russia's perceived red lines, which often exist only in the Western imagination.
The Threat of Russia and the U.S. Election
🎦 01:02:53-01:15:45⏩
Jonathan engages in a passionate rant about the gravity of the threat posed by Russia and his frustration with the lack of seriousness from certain quarters, particularly some elements within the US Republican Party.
- He reads a user comment labeling the West's inaction as "cowardice," echoing his own concerns.
- Jonathan criticizes J.D. Vance, a US Republican Senate candidate, for downplaying the threat of Russian election interference and advocating for forced negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
- He emphasizes that Russia has explicitly stated they are not interested in peace until their objectives are met, rendering Vance's position "empirically incorrect."
- Jonathan then launches into a broader critique of the US political landscape, expressing his bewilderment at the seeming willingness of some Republicans to appease Russia, arguing that this undermines US power and strengthens both Russia and China.
- He emphasizes the interconnectedness of global politics, arguing that the US cannot afford to adopt an isolationist stance, as it risks ceding its global leadership position to China and Russia.
- Jonathan argues that US involvement in Ukraine is driven by strategic self-interest and that the notion of wasted spending on "moral policing" is a mischaracterization of US foreign policy.
Historical Perspective on UK's Involvement in Conflicts
🎦 01:15:45-01:18:41⏩
Prompted by Matt Bishop's humorous remark about England's historical penchant for war, Jonathan launches into a discussion about the strategic motivations behind the UK's involvement in international conflicts.
- He argues that while historical conflicts may have been driven by religious or moral considerations (like the Crusades), modern conflicts are almost exclusively driven by strategic interests, primarily related to trade and national security.
- Jonathan cites examples like the UK's involvement in conflicts in Zimbabwe, Libya, Iraq, and the fight against Somali pirates to illustrate his point.
- He acknowledges that the First World War may have been an exception, citing his friend Rob's observation that the UK's entry into that conflict was less strategic and more moral.
- Jonathan suggests that the increasing accountability of governments to taxpayers and the electorate has led to a shift towards purely strategic decision-making in foreign policy, with moral considerations becoming secondary.
The Budapest Memorandum and Nuclear Proliferation
🎦 01:18:41-01:20:51⏩
Jonathan and Matt discuss the implications of the Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances.
- Jonathan dismisses the pro-Russian argument that Ukraine never had control over its nukes, arguing that Ukraine's engineering capabilities would have allowed them to establish control over time.
- He emphasizes the global strategic importance of preventing nuclear powers from using their weapons as a threat, as this encourages nuclear proliferation and undermines international security.
- Jonathan highlights the potential consequences for South Korea and Japan if North Korea were to invade now that they possess nuclear weapons, suggesting that the US might be less willing to intervene due to the risk of escalation.
Finland Seizes Russian Properties and Charges War Criminal
🎦 01:20:51-01:21:11⏩
Jonathan applauds Finland's decision to confiscate Russian Federation property within its borders, a move he considers significant and unprecedented.
- He reports that confiscated properties include locations in Åland and near a military base in Helsinki, totaling several million dollars.
- Jonathan reads a user comment calling for all EU countries to follow Finland's example, a sentiment he endorses.
News Updates: Georgia, Hungary, Serbia, Ukraine Peace Summit, EU Membership, and U.S. Sanctions
🎦 01:21:11-01:22:56⏩
Jonathan rapidly covers several news updates:
- Georgia: He expresses concern about the deteriorating situation in Georgia, where the ruling Georgian Dream party is accused of election fraud and targeting opposition figures, including President Salome Zourabichvili.
- Hungary: He criticizes Hungary's increasingly pro-Russian stance, noting their leaders skipped a NATO summit in Budapest and their foreign minister's meeting with Belarusian officials. Jonathan speculates whether Hungary's NATO membership might be in jeopardy.
- Serbia: He reports on Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's interview with Bloomberg, where he revealed a recent conversation with Putin, who remains committed to achieving his objectives in Ukraine.
- Ukraine Peace Summit: Jonathan mentions Ukraine's three-point plan for the upcoming second Nikiforov Peace Summit aimed at garnering support from the Global South, but expresses skepticism about the summit's prospects given Russia's lack of interest in genuine peace negotiations.
- EU Membership: He relays Oliver Varhelyi's (European Commissioner for Enlargement) statement that Ukraine could become an EU member by 2029 if they implement necessary reforms, acknowledging this is an optimistic timeline.
- U.S. Sanctions: Jonathan reports on new US sanctions targeting 275 individuals and companies for transferring modern technology to the Russian army, including several deputy defense ministers.
