Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: FT: Zelenskyy Prepares to Replace Zaluzhny

"It's dangerous to get off your horse halfway through crossing the river. But you don't want to back a losing horse as well."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:10⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Breaking News update, this time addressing a rumour circulating about General Valeriy Zaluzhny potentially being replaced.

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Financial Times Report on Zaluzhny

🎦 00:10-01:29⏩

Jonathan discusses a Financial Times article (considered a credible source) reporting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing to replace Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He highlights that the article relies on four unnamed sources and acknowledges that replacing high-ranking officers during wartime is not unusual. He points out that the article suggests Zelenskyy offered Zaluzhny a new role, which the general refused.

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Zelenskyy's Popularity and Potential Backlash

🎦 01:29-02:57⏩

Jonathan explains that replacing Zaluzhny is a risky move for Zelenskyy, as the general is incredibly popular with both the Ukrainian public and the armed forces, even surpassing Zelenskyy in some polls.

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Evaluating the Counter-Offensive and Potential Reasons for Its Limited Success

🎦 02:57-06:14⏩

Jonathan analyses the counter-offensive's performance, noting its initial goals of rapid territorial gains were not met. He posits that the counter-offensive's failure to meet its initial objectives could be attributed to flawed evaluations, potentially by both Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny. He acknowledges that Zaluzhny has admitted to misjudging the situation. Jonathan ponders whether Zelenskyy pressured the army into launching the counter-offensive prematurely and questions if a different approach, like focusing on active defense for a year to attrit Russian forces, might have been more effective.

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Difficulty of Judging Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny's Decisions

🎦 06:14-07:29⏩

Jonathan emphasises the difficulty of making judgements from an outside perspective, as the public lacks access to the intricate details of their decision-making processes. He acknowledges his own admiration for both Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny, recognizing the immense pressure and difficult choices they face. He speculates that factors beyond their control, like insufficient military aid or intelligence, may have hampered the counter-offensive.

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Potential Tension Between Political and Military Leaders

🎦 07:29-08:17⏩

Jonathan discusses the inherent tension that can exist between political and military leaders, particularly during war, due to differing priorities and perspectives. He suggests that the decision to replace Zaluzhny, if true, might be rooted in such tensions.

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Zelenskyy's Potential Motivation for Offering a New Role

🎦 08:17-09:50⏩

Jonathan analyses the potential reasons behind Zelenskyy offering Zaluzhny another role instead of outright dismissal. He suggests that this could be a strategic move by Zelenskyy to appease the public and maintain a degree of continuity within the military, given Zaluzhny's popularity. This approach would allow Zelenskyy to replace Zaluzhny as the head of the armed forces while mitigating potential backlash.

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Timeline of Events and Speculation

🎦 09:50-11:05⏩

Jonathan provides a timeline of events, starting with the counter-offensive's struggles to achieve its ambitious goals, leading to Zelenskyy stating the war had reached a stalemate, a statement for which he was criticized. Jonathan recounts Zaluzhny's admission that he miscalculated the Russians' response and highlights that Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny were seemingly attempting to address speculation by appearing together in a photo posted on Facebook. Despite this, rumours of Zaluzhny's imminent replacement continued to circulate in Ukrainian media and were fueled by individuals aligned with former President Petro Poroshenko.

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Potential Risks and Ramifications of Replacing Zaluzhny

🎦 11:05-12:55⏩

Jonathan delves into the potential risks of replacing Zaluzhny, particularly the loss of his extensive knowledge and experience in managing the war effort. He acknowledges that while a new commander could potentially bring fresh perspectives and improve the situation, there's also a risk of a decline in performance, at least in the short term. Jonathan mentions potential candidates for the role, including Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, and Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate, both considered close to Zelenskyy.

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Zelenskyy's Leadership Style

🎦 12:55-15:26⏩

Jonathan shifts to discuss Zelenskyy's leadership style, citing journalist Simon Shuster, who recently wrote a potentially controversial article and a book about Zelenskyy. He describes Zelenskyy as a good listener who actively solicits opinions and considers different perspectives before making decisions, suggesting this approach leads to more well-rounded choices.

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Avoiding Knee-Jerk Reactions and Considering Long-Term Implications

🎦 15:26-16:53⏩

Jonathan cautions against jumping to conclusions about the situation. He advises against immediately defending either Zelenskyy or Zaluzhny without knowing all the facts. He suggests that the current relatively static period in the war could be an opportune time for a leadership change, if necessary. He uses the analogy of not wanting to "get off your horse halfway through crossing the river" but also acknowledging that "you don't want to back a losing horse." He believes this period offers a window of opportunity to make such a change.

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Was the Counter-Offensive Mishandled, and at What Cost?

🎦 16:53-17:51⏩

Jonathan circles back to the counter-offensive, questioning whether it was fundamentally flawed from the outset. He expresses doubt that significant territorial gains were ever realistic, echoing the views of military analyst Andrew Perpetua. He questions the heavy losses sustained by Ukrainian forces, especially in the Robotyne area, and whether those losses were justified.

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External Factors Influencing Ukrainian Decision-Making

🎦 17:51-18:26⏩

Jonathan highlights the influence of external factors, such as the timely provision of military aid, on Ukraine's ability to conduct successful operations. He reiterates his belief that the counter-offensive may have been launched prematurely due to external pressures and questions who ultimately bears responsibility for this decision.

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Weighing the Risks of Replacing Leadership Against Potential Benefits

🎦 18:26-19:32⏩

Jonathan contemplates whether a single bad decision, such as the counter-offensive's execution, warrants replacing a leader, especially considering the potential for even greater negative consequences. He acknowledges the possibility of other unknown factors influencing the situation and admits the public lacks the full picture to make definitive judgments.

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Jonathan's Perspective on the Situation

🎦 19:32-19:49⏩

Jonathan shares his personal opinion, suggesting he believes the rumours of Zaluzhny's potential replacement hold some weight, giving credence to the Financial Times article. However, he acknowledges the possibility of being proven wrong and encourages viewers to share their thoughts.

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Wrap Up

🎦 19:49-19:52⏩

Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers and expressing well wishes.

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