Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"There's only one set of people that can stop this right now, and that is Russia, by pulling out of the country they've invaded."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an unusual Sunday edition of ATP Geopolitics, explaining this is the second part of the Ukraine war news update for 13th October 2024. This video focuses on hits and losses. Due to a backlog, the military aid video was posted first, with a geopolitics video to follow later. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about conducting a live stream today due to it being Sunday.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Update on Russian Losses (12/10/2024)
🎦 00:35-01:43⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian general staff's figures for Russian losses for the previous day, highlighting some notably high statistics. These figures include significant personnel losses (1,300), tanks (9), and a large number of vehicles and fuel tanks (71).
Potential New Russian Attack Vector - Zaporizhia Oblast
🎦 01:43-03:06⏩
Jonathan discusses a potential new Russian attack vector in the Velikonovo-Silka and Staromilsky area of Zaporizhia Oblast. He speculates that the Russians may be trying to outflank Ukrainian defences in the Vuhledar area, as noted by Andrew Perpetua. Despite the potential strategic thinking, Jonathan criticises the Russians' reliance on suicidal attacks, albeit often yielding gains.
Jonathan's Rant - War Crimes and "Both-sidesism"
🎦 03:06-04:56⏩
Triggered by reports of Russia executing nine Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), Jonathan embarks on a rant against "both-sidesism" in the conflict. He passionately asserts that Russia is the sole aggressor and perpetrator of systematic war crimes, arguing that entertaining a "both-sides" narrative equates to appeasing Russia. Jonathan highlights the absurdity of demanding fairness for Russia after its blatant disregard for international law and human life.
Downing of the Russian Su-34 - Analysis and Speculation
🎦 04:56-10:23⏩
Jonathan revisits the downing of a Russian Su-34 jet, initially attributed to a Ukrainian F-16. He clarifies an earlier misinterpretation of a Russian source, confirming the Ukrainian jet was operating within Ukrainian airspace. Jonathan analyses potential scenarios, including pilot error, friendly fire, F-16 engagement, and Ukrainian air defence systems (possibly Patriots). He points out inconsistencies in Russian narratives, particularly their attempts to downplay Ukrainian capabilities while shifting blame to equipment failures, pilot inexperience, or even faulty instruments.
Russian MLRS Stockpiles Dwindling - Covert Cabal Analysis
🎦 10:23-16:21⏩
Jonathan presents findings from a Covert Cabal video highlighting a critical depletion of Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) stockpiles. Citing satellite imagery analysis, Covert Cabal reveals a dramatic reduction in MLRS numbers across various storage bases, indicating a drop to a mere 23% of pre-war levels. Jonathan links this depletion to Russia's desperation for arms, evidenced by their reliance on North Korea and Iran. He expresses concerns about the potential involvement of China, which could escalate the conflict significantly.
Gas Station Explosion in Grozny, Chechnya
🎦 16:21-18:08⏩
Jonathan shares a dramatic video of a gas station exploding in Grozny, Chechnya. While the cause is unknown, he notes it follows a similar incident in Dagestan in September. He suggests these events could reflect growing unrest within the Caucasus region and recommends a Times Radio interview with Diane Francis for expert insight.
Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 18:08-19:23⏩
Jonathan provides an update on overnight drone and missile attacks. Ukrainian air defence successfully shot down 31 out of 68 "Shahid" drones, with electronic warfare systems neutralising another 36, signifying a remarkable achievement in countering these attacks. He also notes four missiles were launched, although their targets and impact remain unclear. Conversely, Russia claims to have downed 13 Ukrainian drones over the border regions of Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk.
Fyodosia Oil Depot Update
🎦 19:23-20:05⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Fyodosia Oil Depot, which was previously targeted. Recent satellite imagery confirms extensive damage, with eight fuel tanks completely destroyed and others potentially rendered inoperable due to heat damage.
Poland to Open US Air Defence Base
🎦 20:05-20:49⏩
Jonathan highlights Poland's announcement to establish an American Aegis Ashore air defence base on its territory. Situated 165 kilometres from the Russian border, this move signals a proactive stance against potential Russian aggression. Jonathan interprets this as a strategic response to Russia's actions, suggesting a broader trend of NATO and European forces bolstering defences in the face of the perceived threat.
Additional News Items - POW Executions, Zaporizhia Offensive, Russian Jets Leave Belarus, Ukraine's "Victory Plan", and Starlink Concerns
🎦 20:49-26:13⏩
Jonathan covers several news items, including:
- Confirmation from Deep Sight sources about the execution of nine Ukrainian POWs in Russia's Kursk region, highlighting the gravity of these war crimes.
- Reports of a renewed Russian offensive in Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically in the Velikonovo-Silka area, with Ukrainian forces facing setbacks despite prior preparations.
- The withdrawal of two Russian MiG-31K jets (capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles) from Belarus, prompting speculation about the reasons behind this reversal.
- Ukraine's plan to publicly unveil its "victory plan" in the coming days, hinting at a potential shift in the conflict's trajectory.
- Deep concerns over reports of Russian forces utilising Starlink terminals acquired through illicit means, raising serious questions about Elon Musk's stance on the conflict and his business interests in Russia.
Series of Incidents in Russia - Plane Crash, Emergency Landing, and Hospital Ceiling Collapse
🎦 26:13-28:45⏩
Jonathan discusses a string of incidents within Russia, potentially linked to sanctions and budget cuts:
- A fatal plane crash in Yakutia attributed to engine failure, raising concerns about the impact of sanctions on aircraft maintenance.
- An emergency landing by an Airbus A320 in Moscow due to a malfunctioning sensor, highlighting potential safety concerns within Russia's aviation industry.
- The tragic death of a nurse in a Krasnodar hospital after a ceiling collapse, prompting Jonathan to question the possible link between this incident and reported cuts to Russia's healthcare budget.
Russian Health Budget Cuts - A Cause for Concern?
🎦 28:45-29:05⏩
Jonathan expresses astonishment over reports of a 23% reduction in Russia's health budget, especially given the increasing healthcare demands of an ageing population. He speculates that this could be a result of resource diversion to fund the war in Ukraine, potentially fuelling public discontent.
Jonathan's Sunday Morning and Son's Rugby Decision
🎦 29:05-30:28⏩
Jonathan shares a personal anecdote about his son's decision to quit rugby, expressing disappointment and fatherly frustration. He humorously recounts his own childish reaction to the news and the impact it will have on his Sunday morning routine.
Wrap up
🎦 30:28-30:46⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by expressing his hope for more consistency in his Sunday morning schedule now that he no longer has rugby matches to attend. He signs off, thanking his viewers and bidding them farewell.
