Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231028a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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Table of Contents 📖
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"This is now a war of attrition of the sort western powers have not seen since the world wars of the last century. Wars of attrition are ultimately won by the side that can best gear up its industries and apply its productive capacity directly to the battlefield."
Hello Team!
- Jonathan provides a tip for ensuring you receive all notifications for subscribed YouTube channels by selecting "All" instead of "Personalized" in the notification settings.
- Due to heavy rain, Jonathan is recording this update earlier than usual as his son's rugby training was cancelled.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are in the middle range for personnel (660) but lower for tanks (8), APVs (9) and artillery systems (8).
- The rain and mud likely affected maneuvers, visibility, and drone ISR activity. Weekend dip in figures is also possible.
- Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed Russian losses show a 4:1 ratio compared to Ukrainian losses, which include some high-value equipment like a Leopard 2A4 and Stryker.
Footage Analysis
- Video footage shows a Russian convoy on what appears to be frosty ground being targeted by Ukrainian artillery. Most vehicles and personnel seem unscathed.
- Jonathan believes this indicates the Ukrainians knew the convoy's location but lacked sufficient ammunition to effectively engage it, possibly revealing limited stockpiles.
Crimean Executive Death
- Tim White reports that Zakari Gioev, 46-year-old head of Rosmerekflot which controls ship navigation and operated the Kerch crossing to occupied Crimea, suffered a heart attack and multiple organ failure.
- It is unclear if this is the work of Ukrainian special forces, Russian FSB, or unrelated causes.
Overnight Strikes
- 5 out of 5 Shahed drones were shot down (100% interception rate) and a Kh-59 missile fell in Poltava region with no serious consequences reported.
- The low number of aerial threats likely indicates Russia is probing Ukrainian air defenses. Jonathan expects larger waves in the near future.
- Explosions were reported in Russian-occupied Crimea near Chornomorsk.
Afipsky Oil Refinery Fire
- A fire occurred at the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar region, previously targeted by Ukrainian drones. Locals reported hearing "lawnmower" sounds.
- The significance of the damage is unknown, but the refinery was targeted again by Ukrainian drones.
Putin Death Rumors
- Ukrainian special services cannot yet confirm rumors of Putin's alleged death. The longer Putin remains unseen, the more credible the rumors may seem.
- Andriy Yusov, representative of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, stated Ukrainians should be restrained in reacting to such rumors from anonymous Russian sources.
Ukrainian Prisoner Labor
- To address labor shortages due to the war, Ukraine is employing prisoners to work in mines. This fills the labor gap while providing prisoners with skills, employment prospects, and decent salaries.
- Prisoners can pay compensation for their crimes, taxes, and contribute to the budget. Jonathan sees this as a sensible approach compared to Russia's use of penal battalions as frontline troops.
Anti-Semitism in Dagestan
- In Dagestan, a predominantly Muslim region of Russia, a crowd of young people searched hotels for alleged Israeli refugees but found none. They claimed the "Jews were hidden."
- In Karachay-Cherkessia, another Caucasian region, a rally demanded the expulsion of ethnic Jews. Jonathan laments this renewed period of anti-Semitism, emphasizing the need for nuance in complex conflicts like Israel-Palestine.
Russia Intensifies Attacks
- As the Ukrainian offensive appears to have stalled, Russia has increased attacks across the front lines. Michael Clarke, a respected analyst, discusses the risk of a stalemate in a Times article.
- Ukraine's situation is better than a stalemate as they are inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, with over 109 visually confirmed vehicle losses (more than a brigade's worth) in Avdiivka from October 10-20. Actual losses likely range from 200-400 vehicles.
- Russia is still using human wave attacks with convicts and inexperienced troops. Ukraine is also inflicting heavy losses in Zaporizhzhia, where they aim to split Russian forces by reaching the coast.
- Ukraine has degraded Russian rear areas with Western-supplied precision missiles and artillery, making it difficult for Russian forces to settle into winter quarters.
War of Attrition
- The conflict has become a war of attrition, ultimately won by the side that can best mobilize its industries and productive capacity.
- While Russia has limited economic reserves and relies on countries like Iran and North Korea for support, Ukraine has the backing of NATO, the EU, and Western allies.
- Ukraine's ability to ramp up its own production is hampered by Russia's blockade of its ports, making it reliant on Western assistance.
- Western leaders may be reluctant to engage in a prolonged attritional war, hoping for decisive victories like in the Falklands or Gulf War. However, the current situation suggests this is unlikely.
- Ukraine fears that Western resolve may waver, making 2024 its toughest test yet.
Geopolitical Implications
- The Israel-Palestine conflict does not help Ukraine, but there could be a silver lining if Israel and the US strike Iranian targets, potentially removing Iran's support for Russia. However, this risks escalating into a larger conflict.
- Many geopolitical situations have ramifications that, at first glance, do not benefit Ukraine. It is crucial for the West to remain focused on assisting Ukraine in its righteous war against Russia.
Wrap Up
- Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video, and to change their subscription settings to "All" instead of "Personalized" to ensure they receive notifications.
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