Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They've lost another 31 [artillery pieces] today. When is it going to be that they're going to really start struggling with artillery? And that could well be a long time away yet."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War Update for 4th February 2024. He begins with a look at the Ukrainian General Staff's report on estimated Russian losses from the previous day, pointing out that the figures provided are likely to be fairly accurate, and reminding viewers of the usual caveats which can be found in the video description.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-03:50⏩
- Personnel: 810 (A significant number but lower than the previous high)
- Tanks: 2 (Very low number, suggesting a potential pause in large-scale Russian offensives)
- Armoured Personnel Carriers: 13 (Around average)
- Artillery Systems: 31 (Fairly decent number, indicating continued Ukrainian counter-battery operations)
Jonathan highlights the high number of artillery system losses and addresses viewer questions about the sustainability of these losses. Despite significant losses, Russia still possesses substantial artillery reserves. Jonathan explains that while Ukraine's counter-battery efforts are making a difference, the impact on Russia's overall artillery capability might not be immediately apparent. He cites Covert Cabal’s analysis and notes the continuous flow of old artillery pieces from deep storage in Russia to the frontline.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 41 (Very high, reflecting ongoing targeting of Russian logistics)
- Special Equipment: 6 (Fairly high, impacting mining, engineering and surveillance capabilities)
Andrew Perpetua's Loss Statistics
🎦 03:50-06:16⏩
Jonathan analyses data from Andrew Perpetua which indicates near parity in losses between Ukrainian and Russian forces, although the data is incomplete. However, the equipment lost by the Ukrainians seems to mainly comprise civilian vehicles, whilst the Russian losses include a higher number of more valuable military equipment. Overall, Jonathan suggests that the loss of Russian military equipment is likely higher.
- Ukrainian Losses: 4 tanks, 1 BMP-1 APC, civilian pickup trucks and SUVs, an excavator, and communications equipment.
- Russian Losses: An engineering vehicle (BAT-2), a T-90M tank (destroyed by an FPV drone after hitting a mine), several abandoned and destroyed T-80s, T-72s, and AT-72 tanks, BMP-2s, and BTRs.
Covert Cabal's Analysis of Russian Artillery Stocks
🎦 06:16-11:17⏩
Jonathan discusses Covert Cabal's detailed analysis of Russian artillery losses and stockpiles. Covert Cabal has identified a significant depletion of Russian artillery stocks, estimating that Russia has used around half of its pre-war stockpile.
- Pre-war, Russia had:
- 14,630 pieces of towed artillery (now down to 6,786)
- 4,450 self-propelled guns (now down to 2,961).
- Jonathan points out that Covert Cabal estimates that Russia has enough towed artillery to last for another year and a half at the current rate of attrition, and self-propelled artillery for another three years and ten months. However, Jonathan adds his own analysis, noting that this does not mean that Russia’s artillery war is over. Jonathan highlights some of the issues with relying on this data, including the resolution of the imagery used in the analysis, which makes it difficult to accurately assess the true figures.
HIMARS Strike in Lysychansk
🎦 11:17-12:12⏩
Jonathan reports a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a building in Lysychansk which resulted in the death of 20 (potentially as many as 28) members of the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry. Whilst Russian sources claim the strike hit a cafe, Jonathan is sceptical, concluding this was likely a successful, high-value strike on a Russian military target.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Concerns about FPV Drones
🎦 12:12-14:13⏩
Jonathan highlights Russian concerns over the effectiveness of Ukrainian-deployed First Person View (FPV) drones. He contrasts the decentralised drone production in Ukraine with Russia's more centralised approach. Jonathan argues that supporting these smaller Ukrainian enterprises is crucial to maintaining Ukraine’s technological advantage. He also discusses reports of complaints from Russian soldiers on the front lines about the relative inaccuracy of their own munitions drops compared to the precision of Ukrainian drone strikes. Jonathan speculates on the reasons for this, such as differences in drone usage, operator skill, and potential selection bias in available footage.
Return to top⤴️
Assassination of Russian Bomber Pilot
🎦 14:13-14:48⏩
Jonathan reports the assassination of a Russian Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bomber pilot, Major Oleg Bergevich, in Engels, Russia. Bergevich was reportedly involved in missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine and was shot, although his survival is not confirmed. Jonathan underscores the significance of this incident, highlighting the potential impact on Russian training capabilities.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Major Jailed for Fuel Theft
🎦 14:48-15:28⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian army major, Alexander Sungurov, has been jailed in occupied Crimea for stealing diesel fuel on a large scale. Sungurov, who had previously received a state award, was part of an organised group involved in the theft. Jonathan remarks that Sungurov's removal will likely have an effect on the pool of seasoned military professionals available to Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Drone Activity over Bryansk
🎦 15:28-15:46⏩
Jonathan notes that drones were spotted over Bryansk, Russia, with flashes in the sky suggesting an explosion, although the specific details are unknown. He also highlights a user comment mentioning that the OSCE may be using star positions to determine the location of the sinking of the Ivanovets, a Russian ship, demonstrating the level of detail some viewers go into.
Return to top⤴️
The Sinking of the Ivanetov
🎦 15:46-16:43⏩
Jonathan revisits the sinking of the Ivanetov, a Russian ship. He dismisses the idea that the ship was of low value to the Russians, stating that the Ivanetov likely played an important role in providing radar coverage for air defenses in northern Crimea, making its destruction a significant victory for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Disruption of Russian Naval Operations
🎦 16:43-18:24⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian armed forces' success in disrupting Russian naval operations in the Black Sea. He explains that Ukrainian strikes on Sevastopol, the main logistics base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, have forced Russian ships to operate from Novorossiysk. However, the crucial infrastructure needed to load Kalibr cruise missiles onto these ships remains in Sevastopol. This constraint significantly hinders Russia’s ability to launch Kalibr missiles from its warships. Jonathan quotes Ukrainian Navy speaker, Dmytro Pletenchuk, who states that Russian ships are forced to make quick trips to load a single missile before departing due to the vulnerability of Sevastopol.
Return to top⤴️
Missing Russian Military Leaders
🎦 18:24-20:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing absence of two high-ranking Russian military figures: - Valery Gerasimov (Army General, Chief of the General Staff, First Deputy Minister of Defence): Missing since 29th December 2023. - Viktor Sokolov (Admiral, Commander of the Black Sea Fleet): Missing since 22nd September 2023, with rumours of his death in a strike on Sevastopol. Jonathan believes that the likelihood of Sokolov's death is high, and that there's a significant chance (around 70%) that Gerasimov is also either dead or seriously injured. He expresses surprise that Ukraine has not made more of these potential losses, given their significance.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 20:08-20:10⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off, saying "Take care, speak soon."
Return to top⤴️
