Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News

"These people are just so obviously wrong. They're so wrong. Just morally, politically, factually wrong."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:09⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video: Ukraine War Update NEWS, the third part of three for today (17/06/2024), focusing on geopolitical news.

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Peace Summit: Overview

🎦 00:09-01:39⏩

Jonathan discusses the Peace Summit held in Switzerland, highlighting the geographical disparity in support for the summit's communique. He questions the absence of nations such as Brazil and Mexico and expresses concern about the lack of backing from Africa and Asia. He notes that 80 countries initially signed the communique, but Jordan and Iraq later withdrew their support, suggesting possible external pressure from Russia or China.

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Peace Summit: Vatican as Mediator?

🎦 02:21-03:34⏩

Jonathan notes that a second peace summit is anticipated in the coming months. The Vatican has offered to mediate a potential all-for-all prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. Jonathan speculates about the potential for immediate remobilisation of released prisoners and expresses concerns about the treatment of Ukrainian POWs by Russia. He cites reports of torture, malnourishment, and other forms of mistreatment in Russian prisons, referencing his recent reading of Aiden Aslin's account of captivity and torture.

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Denmark: Plans to Curb Russia's Shadow Fleet

🎦 03:35-04:05⏩

Jonathan reports that Denmark is creating plans to target Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers. He stresses the need to restrict Russia's ability to fund the war effort via its hydrocarbon exports, which often involve covert practices like disabling transponders and ship-to-ship transfers to circumvent sanctions. Foreign Minister Rasmussen is currently in discussions with a coalition of countries to explore potential measures to address this issue.

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Sweden: Russian SU-24 Airspace Incursion

🎦 04:05-05:05⏩

Jonathan reports that a Russian Su-24 fighter jet breached Swedish airspace near Gotland, ignoring radio warnings before being intercepted and forced to turn around by Swedish Gripen jets. This incident, one of several recent airspace violations, has prompted Sweden to summon the Russian ambassador in protest. Jonathan cites a comment from a viewer (Thomas Stein) who believes Russia's actions are a deliberate test of Sweden's reaction time, suggesting that such behavior from a military often precedes a surprise attack. Jonathan acknowledges the provocative nature of Russia's conduct, drawing parallels to similar actions in British airspace over the North Atlantic and the Arctic.

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NATO: To Deploy Additional Nuclear Weapons?

🎦 05:05-06:56⏩

Jonathan reports that NATO is considering deploying additional nuclear weapons in response to escalating threats from Russia and China. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in an interview with The Telegraph, emphasized the importance of showcasing the alliance's nuclear capabilities as a deterrent. Consultations are underway among NATO member states about transferring nuclear missiles from storage to a higher state of readiness, potentially mirroring Russia's recent nuclear drills with Belarus. Jonathan criticizes attempts to portray NATO as the aggressor in a potential nuclear escalation. He argues that while some view NATO's response as escalatory, it is essential to recognize that it is Russia's actions, aggressive rhetoric on state television, and online propaganda that are driving the push towards nuclear confrontation. He urges viewers to recognize that NATO's stance against Russian aggression in Eastern Europe does not equate to pushing for nuclear conflict. He believes that Russia's nuclear threats only serve to expose their weakness and desperation, especially given that any nuclear strike on Ukraine would likely result in radioactive fallout over Belarus and Russia due to prevailing wind patterns.

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Russia: Unable to Use Nukes?

🎦 06:56-08:43⏩

Jonathan shares a viewer comment (Matt Bishop) who posits that Russia may no longer have the capability to effectively deploy nuclear weapons. Bishop argues that Russia's depleted air defenses, including its long-range radar systems, leave them incredibly vulnerable to retaliatory strikes if they were to launch a nuclear attack. While acknowledging the potential for exaggeration, Jonathan finds the argument compelling and expresses concerns about the operational status of a significant portion of the Russian air force. He also mentions reports suggesting damage to two Russian over-the-horizon radar systems. He concludes that while mutually assured destruction remains a sobering reality, Russia's ability to execute its nuclear threats is increasingly questionable.

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Russia: Becoming a Vassal State of China?

🎦 08:43-12:26⏩

Jonathan expresses frustration over a recent talk he gave where technical difficulties resulted in a loss of footage. He plans to re-record the talk, which explored the idea of maps as subjective representations of power rather than objective truths. He argues that disputed territories, such as Kashmir, areas claimed by China from India and Russia, and islands contested between China and Japan, highlight the dynamic nature of borders. Jonathan suggests that Russia is increasingly becoming a vassal state of China, evidenced by China's access to Vladivostok on Russia's eastern seaboard and potential territorial ambitions in the region. He asserts that the seemingly "limitless friendship" between the two countries is a marriage of convenience driven by necessity rather than genuine camaraderie or ideological alignment. He predicts that China will soon secure access for its ships to pass through the Tumen River, which flows along the borders of China, North Korea, and Russia, into the Sea of Japan. This development, according to Jonathan, is another indication of Russia's weakening bargaining position as they become increasingly reliant on China for economic and political support. He notes that China's influence in the region will undoubtedly grow at Russia's expense.

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USA: Public Support for Ukraine Aid

🎦 12:26-13:25⏩

Jonathan discusses a recent poll by the Reagan Institute showing that 57% of Americans still back sending military aid to Ukraine, while 32% oppose it. He expresses concern about the spread of disinformation within the information space, highlighting a tweet by David Sacks, a billionaire businessman known for promoting pro-Russian narratives. Sacks's tweet falsely claims that respecting Ukraine's internationally recognized borders equates to demanding Russia's unconditional surrender. Jonathan points out the irony of Sacks's statement given that Russia's actions and rhetoric, including Putin's recent peace negotiation proposal, are actually demands for Ukraine's unconditional surrender of territory.

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USA: Critique of David Sacks's Stance on Ukraine

🎦 13:25-15:52⏩

Jonathan expresses his anger and frustration over the spread of pro-Russian disinformation by individuals like David Sacks. He criticizes Sacks's portrayal of Ukrainian President Zelensky's call for Russia to withdraw from occupied territories as a demand for "unconditional surrender". He argues that Sacks misrepresents the situation, as it is Russia that is attempting to impose an unconditional surrender on Ukraine by demanding territorial concessions and restrictions on Ukraine's sovereignty. Jonathan criticizes Sacks for echoing Putin's narrative and perpetuating dangerous falsehoods. He condemns Sacks, along with Elon Musk and Marjorie Taylor Greene, for their blatant disregard for the truth and their harmful influence on public opinion.

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USA: 2024 Presidential Election and Ukraine

🎦 15:52-18:08⏩

Jonathan highlights the significance of the 2024 US presidential election for Ukraine. He points out that many Republican candidates, including Trump, Kennedy, and Stein, have expressed opposition to aiding Ukraine and have blamed the US and NATO for the war. He contrasts this with Biden, who is the only candidate openly supportive of Ukraine and NATO. He reads a quote from Robert Kennedy Jr. questioning whether NATO is still a defensive alliance. As a non-American, Jonathan clarifies that his focus is on the international implications of US domestic politics, particularly regarding Ukraine. He believes that there's a misconception amongst some of his viewers that Trump would be more supportive of Ukraine, emphasizing that Trump's own words contradict this notion. He plays a clip of Trump mocking Zelensky, suggesting that Zelensky's success in securing aid from the US is solely due to his salesmanship, implying that Zelensky doesn't genuinely care about Ukraine's well-being. Jonathan strongly disagrees with this view, arguing that those who believe Trump supports Ukraine are delusional.

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USA: Trump's Personality and Ukraine

🎦 18:08-19:51⏩

Jonathan continues his critique of Trump, challenging the idea that Trump is supportive of Ukraine. He references an interview he listened to with an author who had extensive access to Trump. The author claimed that Trump takes more pride in his time on "The Apprentice" than his presidency, suggesting it was the ultimate validation for him. He argues that Trump's behavior, particularly towards Zelensky, is driven by self-interest. He also notes the author's observation that Trump has a poor memory and struggles to recall past conversations. He then introduces his next topic, an interview between conservative commentator Bill Crystal and Anne Applebaum, author and expert on Eastern Europe, recommending her book "Twilight of Democracy." He points out that Applebaum, who is married to Polish Foreign Minister Sikorsky, possesses deep insights into US and European politics, especially regarding Russia.

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Anne Applebaum on Trump and the Threat to Democracy

🎦 19:51-25:42⏩

Jonathan plays a segment from Bill Crystal’s interview with Anne Applebaum, focusing on her analysis of Trump's impact on democracy. Applebaum argues that Trump's extreme rhetoric and actions, such as his attempts to overturn the election and his use of violent language, are unprecedented among elected leaders in the Western world. She emphasizes that Trump's incoherence and tendency to rant and ramble often mask the real danger he poses to the rule of law and democratic institutions. She shares an anecdote from a Russian journalist in exile who claimed that within the Kremlin, Trump is seen as the "American Gorbachev," not as a champion of democracy but as someone who will bring down the American system from within. Applebaum argues that Russia, under Putin, views Trump's actions as weakening the United States and undermining its ability to maintain a coherent foreign policy. She also expresses concern that China, while less experienced in meddling in foreign elections, poses a growing threat to democracy globally. Applebaum highlights the significance of Trump's embrace of authoritarian figures like Viktor Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary. She argues that by providing a platform for Orbán and echoing his rhetoric, Trump legitimizes and strengthens authoritarian movements both domestically and internationally. She criticizes those who downplay the significance of Trump's actions, emphasizing that his seemingly "goofy" persona conceals a very real threat to democratic norms and institutions.

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The Rise of Authoritarianism and Transnational Cooperation

🎦 25:42-29:45⏩

Jonathan continues the discussion of Anne Applebaum's insights from the Bill Crystal interview, focusing on the rise of authoritarianism and the concerning trend of domestic actors adopting authoritarian language. He points out that Russia and China often work in conjunction with such individuals, exploiting their rhetoric to further their agendas. He highlights the concerning rise of Christian nationalism, particularly in the US, and its potential to undermine democratic values by blurring the lines between church and state. He agrees with Applebaum's assertion that this ideology, while often presented as a defense of traditional values, is actually a tool used by authoritarians to divide societies and resist transparency and accountability. He finds it alarming that Russia, despite being a diverse and largely secular society, cynically promotes this ideology to appeal to far-right groups in the US and dictatorships in Africa. Jonathan criticizes events like the CPAC conferences in Budapest, which provide a platform for figures like Viktor Orbán to promote their authoritarian agendas and normalize their rhetoric. He expresses regret for initially underestimating the significance of such events and the transnational cooperation between autocratic regimes. He believes that the validation Orbán receives from figures like Trump strengthens his grip on power in Hungary. He criticizes Trump for snubbing Zelensky by refusing an invitation to Ukraine while simultaneously giving Orbán a red-carpet welcome at Mar-a-Lago.

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USA: Concerns about Robert Kennedy Jr.'s Views

🎦 29:45-31:51⏩

Jonathan expresses concerns about the views of Robert Kennedy Jr., another US presidential candidate. He criticizes Kennedy for promoting conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 vaccine, specifically highlighting Kennedy's claims that the vaccine was designed to harm certain ethnic groups. He finds Kennedy's embrace of such baseless and harmful rhetoric deeply disturbing, drawing parallels to the antisemitic propaganda that fueled the Holocaust. He also criticizes Belarusian dictator Lukashenko for engaging in anti-Semitic rhetoric. Jonathan expresses disbelief at the resurgence of such harmful ideologies, hoping that humanity has learned from the horrors of the past.

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USA: Challenges in Banning Russian Uranium

🎦 31:51-33:18⏩

Jonathan reports that the US is facing difficulties in fully implementing a ban on Russian uranium imports. Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, acknowledged the unrealistic nature of the ban, citing Russia's significant role in the global uranium supply chain. Jonathan notes that this reliance on Russian uranium has prevented the imposition of sanctions on Rosatom, the Russian state-owned nuclear energy corporation, which has constructed and currently services nuclear power plants in several European countries, including Hungary and potentially Turkey. He argues that sanctioning Rosatom could have severe consequences for European countries reliant on Russian nuclear technology. He acknowledges the complexities of the uranium market and the challenges in finding alternative sources. He reveals that the US continues to purchase significant quantities of uranium from Russia and is struggling to reduce its dependence.

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The West: Unprepared for a New World War?

🎦 33:18-37:15⏩

Jonathan discusses the idea of a new world war, asserting that the current geopolitical climate bears similarities to the late 1930s. He believes that likening the current situation to the period leading up to World War II is misleading as he argues that a new world war has already begun, though not in the traditional sense of direct military confrontation. Jonathan argues that the West is already engaged in a system-transforming war against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, albeit one characterized by economic sanctions, information warfare, and proxy conflicts rather than traditional battlefield engagements. He criticizes the use of terms like "great power competition," "strategic competition," and "hybrid war" as attempts to downplay the severity of the situation and avoid acknowledging the reality of this new form of conflict. Jonathan argues that the West, while economically powerful, is politically weaker than the authoritarian bloc, plagued by internal divisions and a reluctance to acknowledge the end of the post-Cold War order. He criticizes Western leaders for clinging to outdated notions of a rules-based international order that no longer exists. He believes that the West needs to adapt to a new reality characterized by heightened risk and embrace the harsh realities of geopolitics.

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The Importance of a Strong Military-Industrial Complex

🎦 37:15-39:22⏩

Jonathan emphasizes the vital role of a robust military-industrial complex in this new era of geopolitical competition. He acknowledges a shift in his own thinking, having previously harbored ideological reservations against the military-industrial complex. He now recognizes its importance as an "insurance policy" for nations, ensuring they have the capacity to defend themselves against existential threats. Jonathan argues that the ongoing conflict has exposed the need for a sustainable and responsive military-industrial complex capable of producing weapons and munitions at the scale and speed required to counter potential adversaries. He suggests that defense spending and a strong domestic arms industry are crucial to deterring aggression, comparing it to having house insurance to protect against unforeseen disasters. He criticizes Trump's proposed economic policies, including a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, as potentially disastrous and likely to exacerbate inflation. He concludes by reiterating his belief that the world is already in the midst of a new world war, one that demands a fundamental reassessment of the West’s approach to geopolitics and a renewed commitment to strengthening its capacity for defense.

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Wrap Up

🎦 39:22-39:27⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He bids farewell with a "toodlepips."

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