UK Aid, Gerasimov, Mobilisation & Other Options
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"This is about saying we're not going to prevent, we're not just there to, or they're helping to stop Ukraine from losing, we're there to help them win. There's a big difference I think there, it sounds a bit abstract, but actually it's a really big difference. We need to give them offensive weapons and start that ball rolling. I think the UK's really done that well."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the war in Ukraine for January 17th, 2023. There is a lot of news to cover.
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Russian Losses
- Significant uptick in liquidated Russian personnel, possibly due to a hit similar to Makiivka but not as severe
- 3 tanks, 11 APCs, 5 artillery systems, 3 MLRS destroyed which impacts Russia's ability to attack Ukrainian positions
Fires in Russia
- Fire at a St. Petersburg shipyard, but apparently no damage or casualties according to Russian reports
- In Kherson, Russian forces stationed in a former school were targeted and the building is on fire, similar to the Makiivka incident
Attacks on Ukraine
- Zelensky said Ukraine is continually hitting Russian logistics and troop accumulations day and night
- Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia hit with incendiary munitions, which is a war crime in civilian areas
UK Military Aid Package
The UK announced a significant military aid package for Ukraine:
- Spare parts to refurbish up to 100 Ukrainian tanks
- 14 Challenger 2 tanks now, 8 more later
- 100+ armored vehicles
- Dozens of UAVs
- 100,000 artillery shells
- 100 missiles (possibly Brimstone)
- Support vehicles like bridge layers and mine clearing
Ben Wallace said this allows Ukraine to go from resisting to expelling Russian forces, signaling the West wants Ukraine to win, not just avoid losing. Some equipment will come from UK stocks but much will be bought from other markets/countries. The UK will also train 20,000 Ukrainian troops this year, with Australia assisting.
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Other Military Aid
- Slovakia delivered its 8th Zuzana 2 howitzer to Ukraine, completing the contract
Russian Mobilization and Offensives
There are reports that Gerasimov has until March to capture the Donbas region. This may explain the renewed Russian offensives around Bakhmut and Avdiivka despite heavy losses. Russia still has options to increase its forces even without a new mobilization: 1) ~150,000 mobilized troops still in training that haven't been deployed 2) Annual conscripts, who can now legally be used in the 4 annexed territories Russia claims So even if poorly trained/equipped, Russia can keep throwing bodies at the front lines to make gains, as seen in Bakhmut, if they are willing to accept the casualties. However, there are also signs that a 2nd wave of mobilization in Russia may be imminent according to independent Russian media.
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Potential Missile Strikes
Russian missile carriers and submarines have been detected in the Black Sea. They can potentially launch up to 44 Kalibr cruise missiles, so missile strikes against Ukraine could occur in the coming days.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan will post a separate frontline update video soon, as this news update is already quite long. His multiple sclerosis is impacting his ability to control the mouse when using maps, so he needs to edit the frontline video separately. He asks viewers to check out that video when it is released.
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