Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - More Ukrainian Strikes!!
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine really doing a good job of hitting, striking with no doubt missiles and drones."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel, mentioning that this is part 1 of the update for 16th January 2025. The Blue Album by Weezer is playing in the background today!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report - Hits and Losses
🎦 00:35-01:35⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff Report figures from 15th January 2025 (noting that anything over 1,000 for Russian personnel losses is a high number).
- 1,480 Russian personnel losses
- 11 Tanks (above average)
- 20 AFVs (around average)
- 40 Artillery systems (almost double the daily average)
- Significant losses for Russian vehicles and fuel tanks - Jonathan believes that this is because they are being used as combat assets as troops are being sent to the front line in unarmoured vehicles, buggies and motorbikes
- No update from Andrew Perpetua today as he is busy
Dell Statistics - Drones
🎦 01:35-02:40⏩
Jonathan reviews the Dell Statistics (available via a link in the video description) - looking at what the averages are (mean, median and mode), daily highs, 7-day and 30-day rolling averages for the various equipment types. He notes that drone losses are high for the Russians recently and that they are evidently using an awful lot of them at the moment.
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Dell Statistics - Vehicles and Fuel Tanks
🎦 02:40-03:19⏩
Jonathan highlights that vehicle and fuel tank losses have hit a seven-day rolling average record high and that losses over the last week have been significant:
- 137
- 204
- 83
- 110
- 64
- 61
- 86
- 80
- 81
- 170
- 116
- 97
Dell Statistics - Artillery
🎦 03:19-04:19⏩
Jonathan analyses the trend for Russian artillery losses, noting that losses have started to creep back up again in the last week after a period of decline. He speculates that this could be because:
- The Russians were struggling to get hold of artillery
- It took time to replace destroyed equipment with older versions from stock
- A trainload of artillery arrived, they started using them and Ukraine started destroying them
Dell Statistics - Tanks
🎦 04:19-05:14⏩
Jonathan examines the trend in Russian Tank losses, explaining that although there hasn't been a huge change recently, losses had been tailing off but are now on the increase again. He believes that the Russians are running low on tanks.
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Ukraine and Russia Troop Numbers
🎦 05:14-06:33⏩
Zelensky stated that Ukraine's military now totals 880,000 soldiers, who are facing 600,000 Russian troops, although Jonathan cautions that these figures should be treated with some caution as it will include backroom/admin staff. Additionally, the 880,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be spread across the country, whereas the 600,000 Russian troops will be concentrated in specific areas.
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Australian Volunteer Killed
🎦 06:33-07:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the death of Australian volunteer fighter Oscar Jenkins, a former teacher from Melbourne who was fighting with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Videos have emerged which appear to show him being interrogated and beaten by Russian soldiers with his hands tied. His body was later found. Australia is considering expelling the Russian Ambassador. Jonathan hopes that Australia takes harsh action against Russia.
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Ukrainian POWs
🎦 07:46-08:52⏩
A good day for capturing POWs for the Ukrainians:
- 27 Russians captured in Kursk by Ukrainian Marines and AFU units (including officers, sergeants and soldiers from motorised rifle units, naval infantry, airborne forces)
- 23 Russians from the 12th Azov Brigade captured in the Turetsk direction
- Another 23 captured in Donetsk Oblast
Jonathan remarks that 50 POWs in a day is incredible.
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Russian Artillery Losses
🎦 08:52-10:24⏩
Jonathan highlights that although we don't always see it, the Ukrainians are suffering losses as a result of Russian artillery. A video shows a number of Ukrainian howitzers destroyed - he notes that these videos are not published as often because they are not as "exciting" as videos of tanks being blown up. There are many different ways that artillery is taken out, meaning there is not always footage available:
- Counter battery fire
- Drones spotting for artillery
- FPV Droes
Jonathan adds that visual confirmation often comes from analysis of satellite imagery and it is unusual to see images of areas 20km behind the front line where a lot of artillery pieces are situated.
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Warehouse fire in Vyborg
🎦 10:24-11:18⏩
A warehouse containing supplies for Russian soldiers (construction materials for dugouts, armour, tactical headphones, clothing) has burned down in Vyborg, North West Russia. Arson is suspected.
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Russian Railway Sabotage
🎦 11:18-11:55⏩
Two relay cabinets have been set on fire in Yaroslavl overnight, the latest in a number of sabotage attacks on Russian railways.
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Russian Air Defence Officer Sentenced
🎦 11:55-12:18⏩
Russian news outlet Kommersant reports that an air defence officer has been sentenced to a term in a penal colony after he shot down a Russian Mi helicopter in error, believing it to be a Ukrainian drone. Jonathan muses whether he might end up fighting on the front line.
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Russian Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 12:18-13:14⏩
Last night:
- 55 Russian attack drones, including simulators, were launched from Russia
- 34 were shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force
- 18 were disabled by electronic warfare
- 3 may have got through
- Drones hit Chernihiv region
- Drone debris caused damage in Kharkiv and Poltava
Jonathan notes that this is the first time for a while that Russia has not launched consecutive missile strikes - suggesting they might be running low on missiles.
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Is Russia Running out of Missiles?
🎦 13:14-14:18⏩
Jonathan speculates about whether Russia is running out of missiles:
- Are they struggling to manufacture them?
- Have Ukrainian strikes targeted ammunition storage depots?
- Is there a shortage of fuel?
- Does the lack of Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea have an impact?
Ukrainian Drone Strikes inside Russia
🎦 14:18-16:34⏩
Ukraine has been busy overnight:
- Drone attacks caused a fire at an oil depot in the Voronezh region
- The oil plant is in Lyski and two fire trains have been sent to control the blaze
- The regional governor confirmed that the region was attacked by more than 10 drones
- Several tanks were destroyed
- A map shows a number of recent Ukrainian strikes inside Russia:
- Saratov (oil and fuel)
- Engels (oil and fuel)
- Lyski (oil depot in Voronezh)
- Tambov (gunpowder plant)
- Bryansk (chemical plant and microelectronics plant)
- Vyborg (Warehouse)
- St Petersburg (chemical plant)
- Jonathan notes that although these strikes are damaging for the Russians they do not result in Ukrainian casualties and they allow them to attrit Russian soldiers/equipment from a distance.
Lyski - Should it Secede from Russia?
🎦 16:34-18:40⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation in Lyski and questions whether it should secede from Russia altogether given its bad luck recently. In 2023 the city faced a rabies outbreak, then in August 2024 it was plunged into darkness for several days following a prolonged blackout. In October there were issues with the state of the roads and now the oil depot is on fire! He wonders what Russians living in these areas really think about the war and whether they blame their own government or the Ukrainians for what is happening. He concludes that while some people will understand the geopolitical situation, many will just blame the Ukrainians.
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Ukraine Targeting Russian Military Industrial Complex
🎦 18:40-19:01⏩
Jonathan observes that many of the recent strikes appear to have been targeting the Russian Military Industrial Complex - especially ammunition manufacturing facilities.
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Front Line Update - Velikonovosilka
🎦 19:01-20:07⏩
Jonathan provides an update from the front line (referencing his previous frontline update video) explaining that:
- The Russian offensive in Velyka Novosilka continues, with Russian forces having regrouped and begun to push south of the settlement.
- They have captured Neskuchne and are now fighting in Vremivka
- It is expected that the Ukrainians will soon withdraw from Velyka Novosilka
- The area around the Mokri Yaly River south of Velyka Novosilka, including Urozhaine, is now fully under Russian control
Jonathan expects that the Russians will continue to advance in this area.
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Front Line Update - Krakowa and Turetsk
🎦 20:07-20:30⏩
Jonathan adds that the Russians are also continuing their advance in the direction of Krakove and Toretsk.
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Mine Shaft Blown Up
🎦 20:30-21:04⏩
The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine has blown up a mineshaft (number 3) in the Prokrosk area in an attempt to slow down the Russian advance. Jonathan explains that this will be to prevent Russia being able to use the mine for their own benefit.
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No Russian Naval Vessels in Black Sea
🎦 21:04-21:15⏩
Jonathan reiterates that there are no Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea at the moment, adding that this is significant.
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Russian Official Dies in Thailand
🎦 21:15-23:00⏩
Konstantin Klyuev, the deputy head of the Vladivostok administration, has died in Thailand in suspicious circumstances. According to reports he was on holiday in Pattaya and was last seen with a prostitute before he disappeared. His body was later found. Jonathan ponders whether there was more to it - musing about whether this could have been an assassination. He believes that there are probably a lot of Russians around the world who think they are safe in countries such as Thailand and Turkey. He mentions a comment from a user, Ozzy Bugger, who lives in Cambodia and says there are a lot of Russians in that region. Jonathan finishes by discussing whether TV shows such as The Bureau are an accurate portrayal of what goes on in the world of espionage.
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Wrap Up
🎦 23:00-23:34⏩
Jonathan thanks Michael Vuchal for the Weezer T-Shirt he is wearing and explains that he has been watching an Australian TV Show on BBC iPlayer called Black Snow. He enjoyed the show (set in 1994) which featured a college band playing a Weezer song, sparking a discussion about how much he enjoyed the music of the 1990s.
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