[REUPLOAD] Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
"We've come such a long way that it would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now and not keep building on the defence coalitions we've created."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel for another Ukraine War News update. He mentions that this is the second part of the update for the 9th of January 2025. After a few humorous attempts to start the video, he dives right into the latest developments from the Ramstein meeting in Germany.
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Ramstein Meeting: In-person gathering and key agreements
🎦 00:18-01:13⏩
Jonathan highlights the significance of the Ramstein meeting, taking place in person for the first time in four months at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. He notes the cancellation of the previous meeting due to a hurricane preventing US President Biden's attendance. This meeting is particularly noteworthy as it's the last one before Biden's expected retirement. Attendees include Zelensky and military leaders from various countries. Partners at the meeting agreed on plans to support Ukraine through 2027, including commitments made on July 12, 2024, focusing on eight roadmaps to develop Ukraine's defence capabilities. The goal is to assist Ukraine not just during the war but also in the aftermath, encompassing donations, procurement, investments, and expanding the industrial base for Ukraine's defence industry.
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Zelensky's address at Ramstein: Urging continued support and highlighting Ukraine's resilience
🎦 01:13-02:35⏩
Jonathan focuses on Zelensky's address at the Ramstein Group meeting. Zelensky urged allies to maintain their support, emphasizing the progress made and the importance of continued collaboration in defending Ukraine against Russian aggression. Zelensky argued against complacency, stating: "We've come such a long way that it would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now and not keep building on the defence coalitions we've created." He highlighted the impact of even smaller nations in supporting Ukraine, citing examples like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Denmark.
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Ramstein Meeting: Strengthening Ukraine's defence and the importance of sanctions
🎦 02:35-03:12⏩
Jonathan discusses key takeaways from the Ramstein meeting. Anton Gerashchenko reports the attendance of Zelensky, US Secretary Lloyd Austin, and military representatives from over 50 countries. The primary agenda focuses on bolstering Ukraine's defence capabilities over the next two years to maintain a credible deterrent. Roadmaps will be approved outlining Ukraine's needs and goals across various areas: air force, armor, artillery, demining, drones, air and missile defence, information technology, and maritime security. Jonathan emphasizes Zelensky's point on the crucial role of sanctions in stopping the war, stating that cutting off the cash flow for Putin's war effort through sanctions is vital to ending the killing. He mentions Andriy Yermak's (head of the Office of the President of Ukraine) hint about forthcoming significant sanctions, potentially from the US.
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US Military Aid Package: Analysis of Biden's $500 million package and implications of potential Trump presidency
🎦 03:12-05:32⏩
Jonathan delves into the latest US military aid package. Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin announced the package, worth $500 million. Jonathan expresses some disappointment, having expected a more substantial package given the remaining $3.8 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) before the upcoming change in administration. He speculates on the reasons, such as potential limitations in the US's available stockpiles of suitable equipment. He highlights Zelensky's statement emphasizing the deployment of foreign troops and trainers in Ukraine as a vital tool for peace, implying a push for more direct military involvement.
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Potential implications of Trump presidency on Ukraine Aid
🎦 05:32-11:11⏩
Jonathan analyses the potential implications of a Trump presidency on future US aid to Ukraine. He expresses concern over Trump's ambiguous stance, citing statements made by Trump and his son, Donald Trump Jr., that suggest a less supportive approach towards Ukraine. Jonathan dissects their rhetoric, highlighting the potential for a shift in US policy that could impact the remaining $3.8 billion in PDA. He questions the wisdom of Trump's public pronouncements, contrasting them with a more strategic approach of "double bluffing" the enemy. Jonathan also notes that Trump's recent statements regarding Greenland and Panama, which he sees as imperialistic, further complicate the situation.
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Military Aid: Experts' opinions and analysis on Trump's stance and the economic implications of different scenarios
🎦 11:11-12:58⏩
Jonathan brings in insights from experts like Chattam House's Shashank Joshi, who suggests that Trump's plans for Ukraine remain fluid. Jonathan highlights the need to consider the economic aspect of US involvement. He cites an analysis by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a right-wing think tank that supports Ukraine, which projects that a Russian victory would necessitate a surge in Pentagon spending of $808 billion through 2029. Jonathan, while not a fan of the AEI, acknowledges their expertise on Ukraine and sees their analysis as a warning about the potential long-term costs of inaction.
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US Military Aid: Details of the $500 million package
🎦 12:58-14:20⏩
Jonathan provides a breakdown of the $500 million US aid package, which includes AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M missiles for air defence; air-to-ground munitions; support equipment for F-16s; armoured bridging systems (specifically two M-60 armoured vehicle launch bridges, according to Jeff2146); secure comms equipment; small arms and ammunition; spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation. A senior defence official stated that most of the promised defence supplies from Pentagon stocks will be delivered to Ukraine this month.
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US Military Aid: Total US contributions and discrepancies in reported figures
🎦 14:20-15:16⏩
Jonathan addresses the issue of discrepancies in reported figures for US military aid to Ukraine. He cites OSINT defender quoting Sabrina Singh from the Pentagon, stating that the US and its allies and partners have collectively committed over $126 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. Jonathan points out that this figure contradicts other reports, which claim that the US alone has committed $175-177 billion. He finds this discrepancy puzzling and questions the accuracy of the higher figures.
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Military Aid: Analysing European contributions in relation to distance from Moscow and GDP
🎦 15:16-17:53⏩
Jonathan examines a chart shared by Shashank Joshi that visualizes European Union countries' military aid to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP in relation to their distance from Moscow. Jonathan analyses the spending patterns of various countries, highlighting Greece's high defence expenditure due to its ongoing tensions with Turkey, and the significant contributions of countries like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Sweden, which are geographically closer to Russia. He criticizes countries like Spain and Portugal for their low contributions, despite being relatively distant from Moscow. He also notes the Netherlands' surprisingly low spending on defence, given its strong support for Ukraine. He points out that while Germany is the second-largest contributor in absolute terms, its relative contribution as a percentage of GDP appears low on the chart. He concludes by observing that several countries are not meeting the expected level of support based on their economic capacity and proximity to the conflict.
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German Military Aid: Anticipated announcement at Ramstein and details on the Link's Infantry Fighting Vehicle
🎦 17:53-19:22⏩
Jonathan discusses Germany's anticipated announcement of additional military aid to Ukraine at the Ramstein meeting, citing a report from Politico EU reporter Riksa Fursen. He then delves into details about the Link's Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV), which Germany has pledged to provide. One Link's IFV has already been delivered, with nine more expected this year, totalling ten vehicles. A German spokesperson clarified that the delivery of the Link's IFVs is not being financed by Rheinmetall, the manufacturer, suggesting funding from either the German or Ukrainian government. He speculates that the delivery of these ten IFVs could be a trial run before a larger contract, as investing in a production plant in Ukraine without real-world testing of the vehicles would be risky.
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Military Aid: US invites France to take a leading role, raising questions about future US commitment.
🎦 19:22-20:27⏩
Jonathan shares a potentially significant revelation from Antony Blinken, the outgoing US Secretary of State. Blinken stated that the Biden administration has invited France to assume a leading role in ensuring Ukraine's military needs are met in the coming months. This raises concerns about the US's commitment to funding Ukraine under the incoming Trump administration. Jonathan questions whether this invitation to France signals an expectation that the US will scale back its financial support, potentially leaving a void for others to fill. He expresses reservations about France's ability to shoulder this responsibility, given its internal political challenges and the strain already placed on its defence budget.
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UK Military Innovation: Project Cookson Challenge seeks maritime defence solutions for Ukraine and beyond
🎦 20:27-21:07⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the UK's Ministry of Defence, which has announced a 'Project Cookson Challenge session.' This initiative invites industry partners from NATO, Ukraine, and the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK, and US) to collaborate on developing a versatile, fast, and low-observable maritime system. The system is intended for use in Ukraine and beyond. Jonathan explains that the UK has previously used this approach of challenging industry to research and develop specific weapons systems, and it appears they are taking a similar route with this maritime defence project.
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Russian Electronic Warfare: Impact on Western weapons' effectiveness in Ukraine
🎦 21:07-22:19⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from Euromaidan Press on the impact of Russian electronic warfare on the effectiveness of Western-supplied weapons in Ukraine. The report highlights a dramatic decrease in the accuracy of precision munitions, with hit rates plummeting from 95% to 6% due to Russian countermeasures. Jonathan recalls previous reports about the Excalibur round's reduced effectiveness and speculates on potential upgrades to counter electronic warfare. He notes that the HIMARS system, while still effective, now operates at 40% effectiveness due to Russian countermeasures.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Disparity in military capabilities and Russia's alleged troop deployment
🎦 22:19-23:11⏩
Jonathan cites a report stating that Russia has deployed 640,000 troops and is firing 90,000 artillery rounds daily, a figure four times higher than Ukraine's capacity. Jonathan expresses skepticism about the troop deployment figure and the artillery claim, given previous estimates of 40,000-60,000 rounds per day at the war's peak and reports of Russia's dwindling ammunition supplies. He speculates that the figure might include mortar rounds or other types of munitions. Despite his reservations about the figures, he acknowledges the overall point: Russia still holds a significant advantage in terms of raw firepower.
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Ukraine: New legislation grants citizenship to foreign fighters and introduces mandatory military training
🎦 23:11-27:14⏩
Jonathan reports on two significant legislative developments in Ukraine. First, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law granting citizenship to foreign volunteers fighting for Ukraine and their families. This initiative aims to streamline the process for foreign fighters, addressing legal and financial hurdles they previously faced. Second, a new law mandates military training for all Ukrainian men aged 18 to 25. This training, while not equivalent to immediate mobilization, aims to prepare a significant portion of the population for potential military service. Training for women remains voluntary. The mobilization age remains at 25, but Jonathan speculates that this training requirement could serve as a preparatory step, streamlining mobilization if and when these individuals reach the eligible age.
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Russia: Forced conscription reported in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions
🎦 27:14-27:53⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russian activities, reporting that Russia has initiated forced conscription in the occupied regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that approximately 300 individuals have been forcibly conscripted into the Russian military. Jonathan condemns this action, describing it as a tactic to coerce those remaining in the occupied territories to fight against their fellow Ukrainians.
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US: Addressing misinformation about US aid to Ukraine and the California wildfires
🎦 27:53-30:40⏩
Jonathan addresses the spread of misinformation regarding US aid to Ukraine. He highlights a video by Ian Hislop on LBC that criticizes Elon Musk's stance on the issue. He then refutes claims that US aid to Ukraine is hindering wildfire relief efforts in California. He cites a report that USAID has provided equipment to 16 Ukrainian fire departments, including protective gear, motor pumps, chainsaws, and other essential tools. He emphasizes that this assistance does not detract from resources available for domestic emergencies. Jonathan shares a personal anecdote about a friend, lawyer Eddie Debash, who lost his home in the California wildfires. While acknowledging the tragedy, he emphasizes that aid to Ukraine and domestic disaster relief are not mutually exclusive. He criticizes individuals like Donald Trump Jr. for exploiting the situation to spread divisive rhetoric, blaming Ukraine for unrelated issues.
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Trump's Greenland Strategy: Analysing the logic and ethics of Trump's approach to Greenland
🎦 30:40-36:01⏩
Jonathan revisits Trump's statements on Greenland, analyzing the logic and ethics behind them. He acknowledges that securing Greenland would offer strategic advantages to the US, such as access to natural resources and potential military bases. However, he criticizes Trump's approach, likening it to threatening an elderly neighbor for their garden. Jonathan argues that there are more ethical and effective ways to achieve strategic goals, citing the example of leasing the Chagos Islands by the UK as a more diplomatic approach. He concludes by suggesting that supporting Ukraine's victory against Russia should take priority over pursuing potentially contentious territorial ambitions, emphasizing that a stable and secure Europe is in the best interests of the US and its allies.
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Wrap up
🎦 36:01-36:08⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for watching and bidding them farewell.
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