Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - More Depots Burning
Table of Contents 📖
"Let the guns speak for me. I see no point in arguing with the puppets of dictatorship about how they apply their laws. They are, in any case, the laws of a totalitarian state designed to suppress dissent. I do not recognize these laws and will not obey them, nor will I appeal against any decisions and actions of this Nazi regime."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War News Update video for 18 January 2025 and reminds viewers about the caveats relating to data which can be found in the video description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:18-01:19⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses, noting that although the figures are lower than recent days (with no tank losses), personnel losses are high at 1,340. Jonathan speculates that the lower figures may be a result of troop rotations, quoting a viewer comment from Tim White.
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North Korean Troop Losses
🎦 01:19-02:29⏩
Jonathan reports data from the US think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which states that Russia could lose all 12,000 North Korean troops currently fighting in Ukraine by April 2025 given the high casualty rate. This would represent substantial losses for the North Korean contingent given that they only entered the war recently in December. Jonathan highlights the security agreement between North Korea and Russia which obliges the former to provide troops if the latter is invaded. This arrangement is similar to Article 5 of NATO. He speculates that more North Korean troops may be sent to Ukraine and that Iran has signed a similar agreement with Russia.
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Ukrainian Casualties and Issues with Newly Formed Brigades
🎦 02:29-04:21⏩
Jonathan discusses an article from the Kyiv Independent where Ukrainian commander Serhiy Filmonov claims there have been "devastating losses" in newly formed Ukrainian brigades. The commander attributes the losses to several factors including poor leadership, insufficient training, and problems with integrating foreign military aid. Jonathan acknowledges the issue of a traditional "Soviet mindset" where corruption is common in the armed forces and speculates about whether this is still an issue in Ukraine. He shares anecdotal evidence from James at YNU Ukraine who says that although his unit is made up of "decent people doing a good job", there are problems with the command hierarchy in Ukraine.
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Russian Missile and Drone Attacks Overnight - 18 January 2025
🎦 04:21-07:42⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight missile and drone attacks by Russia, noting that it was a "heavy night" for both sides.
- Ukraine reports that 2 out of 4 ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine (believed to be either North Korean or Iskander-M missiles) were intercepted in Kyiv, although there were still casualties and significant damage as one of the missiles detonated very close to the ground.
- Ukraine also reports that 24 out of 39 drones were shot down and 14 were decoys.
- One drone is believed to have evaded air defences and hit its target.
Kyiv
🎦 07:42-08:09⏩, 08:49-09:30⏩
- The death toll from the missile attacks has risen to 5.
- 3 people were also injured.
- Footage shows a burst water main and extensive damage to buildings, including a McDonald's and the Lukianivska Metro Station.
- Jonathan shares footage from Anton Gerashchenko of an apartment block that was hit, killing three members of the same family.
Zaporizhzhia
🎦 05:38-05:52⏩, 07:01-07:06⏩, 07:49
- A missile strike in Zaporizhzhia city centre has partially destroyed an administrative building, an industrial facility and a cathedral.
- Six people were initially reported injured.
- This figure has since risen to 10, with 8 requiring hospital treatment. The casualties are aged between 28 and 69 years old. A 48-year-old woman is in a serious condition.
Dnipropetrovsk
🎦 06:18-06:31⏩
A drone that evaded air defences hit an industrial enterprise in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk. Footage shows the resulting fire and a statement from the city's mayor confirms the destruction.
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Kryvyi Rih
🎦 08:09-08:49⏩
- Jonathan reports on strikes on Kryvyi Rih that took place during the day on 17 January.
- The attack left 3 people dead and many injured after successful strikes on energy infrastructure.
- Jonathan shares comments from Ukrainian official Anton Gerashchenko about the attack.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Infrastructure
🎦 09:30-14:30⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has been targeting Russian energy infrastructure.
- There are reports of successful Ukrainian drone attacks on targets in the Tula and Saratov Oblasts in Russia, including an oil depot.
- A large oil depot with 58 fuel tanks near Uzlovaya in the Tula region was hit, with footage showing a large fire.
- A massive fire at an oil refinery in Ljudinovo in the Kaluga region was also reported.
- Jonathan analyses footage of the aftermath of the Ljudinovo attack, noting that multiple drones appear to have been involved.
- He reports that a NEBO SVU radar system in occupied Kherson was also destroyed in the attacks. The NEBO is a sophisticated and expensive piece of Russian military equipment costing over $100m.
- Jonathan expresses his admiration for Ukraine's use of drones in the conflict, stating that he has long advocated for Ukraine to scale up its drone and missile capabilities. He speculates that these strikes are having a significant impact on Russia's ability to wage war in Ukraine and is interested to know what the mood is like in the Kremlin.
The Significance of Targeting Russian Infrastructure
🎦 14:30-17:20⏩
Jonathan analyses the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure.
- He argues that such strikes, if sustained, will have a significant impact on Russia's ability to prosecute the war, noting that as well as limiting Russia's income from energy exports, it will also hurt the Russian military's ability to function.
- Jonathan draws parallels with the impact of relatively minor disruptions to fuel supplies in the UK and argues that the impact on Russia (which has a much larger landmass) will be much more significant if sustained.
- He believes that such pressure could force Russia to the negotiating table, but only if Ukraine can maintain the intensity of attacks for a sustained period (weeks and months, but at least for the coming week).
The Importance of the Battlefield
🎦 17:20-18:11⏩
- Jonathan emphasises the importance of the battlefield in determining the outcome of negotiations. He says that the current battlefield is "massive" and includes the entirety of Russia given that Ukraine is striking targets there with missiles and drones.
- Jonathan again reiterates the point he made 2 years ago - that Ukraine should be scaling up its production of missiles and drones. He feels vindicated that Ukraine is now in a position to hurt Russia with such attacks.
Baltic Sea Security
🎦 18:11-20:27⏩
- Jonathan addresses a viewer comment from Edwin Hunter Christie about the Baltic Sentry Operation - a NATO operation to secure the Baltic Sea following the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines in 2022.
- France has committed additional military assets to the operation.
- Jonathan notes that Russia seems to believe that it can intimidate NATO and European states but that this will not work. He believes that Russia's overtly hostile actions and provocations are counterproductive and will only strengthen the resolve of NATO and European states.
Iran-Russia Strategic Partnership
🎦 20:27-20:51⏩
Jonathan reports that Iran and Russia have signed a strategic partnership agreement following a meeting between Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Details of the agreement are scarce, although Russian media has confirmed that it was signed. Jonathan speculates that this could be a military agreement similar to the one signed between North Korea and Russia, and that it might involve the commitment of Iranian troops to the conflict in Ukraine.
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Alexander Skobov
🎦 20:51-24:29⏩
- Jonathan shares a viewer comment from Tim White about the Russian dissident Alexander Skobov who has been imprisoned by the Russian state.
- He reads out a transcript of a statement made by Skobov in which he condemns the Russian invasion of Ukraine, praises Ukraine's armed resistance and calls for Putin's death.
Wrap up
🎦 24:29-24:53⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers and signs off.
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