Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News, Starlink Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"It seems rather frustrating that so long after these have been claimed to be used - I mean we're talking is it a year since our first claims of Russian usage of these - that they have not been turned off, those that no one's been able to find out, you know, which terminals are being used in those areas and that those areas have not been geofenced like Musk turned off Crimea."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his 9th April 2024 Ukraine War News update. He apologises that this video and the frontline update will be later than usual. The frontline update was recorded 16 hours previously, but he forgot to actually press go!
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Zelensky: Ukraine will lose the war without US military aid
🎦 00:29-02:05⏩
Zelensky has issued his strongest warning yet; if the US Congress does not unblock the aid package, Ukraine will lose the war. Jonathan notes that although Russia is making gains in some areas, they are not doing well on the front lines. Jonathan is also concerned about Russia's growing ability to influence elections and undermine democracy in Europe and the US. He cites comments made by Marjorie Taylor Greene as an example.
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Germany to send more Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine
🎦 02:57-03:23⏩
The German government has contracted Rheinmetall to deliver another 20 Marder 103 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. These will be equipped with laser range finders for better target engagement.
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Germany seeking Patriot Systems for Ukraine
🎦 03:24-04:29⏩
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has confirmed that Germany's own stockpiles of Patriot systems are exhausted. They are working with allies to identify and potentially purchase Patriot systems from third countries. Jonathan speculates that Norway might be able to manufacture Patriots under license from Kongsberg, potentially boosting supplies. He concludes that Patriot systems, just like HIMARS, will be in high demand globally.
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French-supplied CAESAR howitzers proving effective in Ukraine
🎦 04:29-09:01⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of French-supplied CAESAR self-propelled howitzers. Key points:
- Ukraine is set to receive 78 more CAESARs this year.
- The French military doctrine shifted toward heavier, self-propelled artillery after the Cold War, rendering older, mass artillery systems obsolete.
- Pierre-André Moreau, creator of the CAESAR, designed it for tactical and strategic mobility, speed of action, autonomous operation, and advanced navigation and firing calculation systems.
- Deployed in June 2022, CAESARs were instrumental in defending the Donetsk region, repelling Russian armoured breakthroughs, destroying command posts, and recapturing Snake Island.
- They were also used in Zaporizhzhia to disrupt enemy supply lines and in Vuhladar and Avdiivka to prevent encirclement and target reinforcement columns.
- Ukrainian forces have praised the CAESAR's effectiveness, with one commander claiming around 10 CAESARs destroyed the equivalent of a Russian brigade.
- Ukrainian tactics involve long-distance manoeuvring, spreading out the guns, and using drones for target acquisition, enabling them to fire six rounds per minute and quickly relocate.
- In January, French Foreign Minister Le Cornu launched the "Artillery Coalition" to maximise artillery support for Ukraine, reduce production times, and streamline ammunition supply.
EU sends emergency power generators to Ukraine
🎦 09:01-09:16⏩
The European Union has sent 157 generators to Ukraine, donated by Austria, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands. The EU has also sent 10 large-capacity (1 megawatt) power generators from its own stockpiles.
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Australians demand frozen Russian oligarch assets be given to Ukraine
🎦 09:16-09:58⏩
A group of prominent Australians, including former prime ministers, diplomats, business leaders, and military figures are demanding the Australian government release frozen assets to Ukraine. An estimated $9 billion belonging to Russian oligarchs is currently frozen in Australia. Jonathan expresses his frustration with Australia for not already taking this action.
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Starlink terminals being used by Russian forces in Ukraine
🎦 09:58-23:54⏩
Jonathan discusses a Wall Street Journal report on how Russian forces in Ukraine are obtaining Starlink terminals via shadowy supply chains. Key points:
- Despite a Russian ban on Starlink, its military is obtaining terminals through intermediaries, undermining the battlefield advantage Ukrainian forces once enjoyed.
- Starlink's secure internet access facilitates drone control and communication, addressing a weakness in the Russian military's communication capabilities.
- SpaceX can limit Starlink access by geofencing (blocking access in certain locations) and deactivating individual devices.
- Controversy surrounds Elon Musk's decision to geofence Crimea, preventing Ukrainian forces from using Starlink during a military operation, which some argue led to Ukrainian casualties.
- Jonathan criticises Musk for appearing to prioritise Russian interests over Ukrainian ones.
- Musk has since lifted the geofence in Crimea and has not geofenced the Donbas region, allowing Russian forces unimpeded access.
- Jonathan questions why Musk has been quick to geofence Crimea to prevent Ukrainian attacks but has not taken similar action to block Russian access in occupied territories.
- The Wall Street Journal's investigation revealed a black market for Starlink hardware, with terminals being registered in countries where the service is allowed and then smuggled into Russia.
- Ukrainian officials claim they are working with SpaceX on a solution, but Jonathan is skeptical given the lack of concrete action.
- Jonathan expresses his frustration with the apparent lack of urgency in addressing the situation, particularly given Musk's previous swift action to geofence Crimea.
- He argues that Musk's actions have benefited Russia more than Ukraine, highlighting a worrying pattern of inaction and inconsistency in Starlink's policies regarding the conflict.
German media report on increased Russian production of drones, artillery and missiles
🎦 23:54-25:26⏩
Jonathan discusses a report in the German media outlet _Die Welt_ claiming:
- Russia is producing 30 Shahed drones per day, with plans to increase this to 87 per day by the end of the year.
- This equates to a monthly production of 900 Shahed drones, potentially rising to 2,700.
- Russia will produce 2.1 million artillery rounds this year.
- Russia produces 130 long-range and 100 short-range missiles each month.
- Jonathan expresses concern but remains cautious, pointing out that Russian claims about production capabilities often prove to be exaggerated.
Russian hypocrisy over cluster munitions
🎦 25:26-26:15⏩
Jonathan highlights Russia's hypocrisy regarding cluster munitions:
- Russia reacted with outrage when the US supplied cluster munitions to Ukraine, portraying it as a war crime.
- However, evidence has emerged of Russia using cluster munitions in Kharkiv since the beginning of the war.
- A video shared on social media shows a Russian soldier dismantling a Russian-made cluster munition that failed to explode after landing on a Russian position.
Wrap up
🎦 26:16-26:30⏩
Jonathan announces he's splitting the update into two parts, with the geopolitical analysis coming up next.
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