Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"They are very open now with what they spread on social media. They do not care one jot about committing war crimes and shouting about them."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
- It's the 30th of October 2024 and Jonathan is a little jaded after a night out discussing politics and philosophy with his friends.
- Despite a good night out putting the world to rights, the world is still in a bad state.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses 29/10/2024
🎦 00:39-01:32⏩
- Personnel: Incredibly high Russian losses. This month (October) will be the worst of the war in terms of personnel losses.
- Equipment: 8 tanks (almost on par for daily average), 29 armoured personnel vehicles (above daily average), 38 artillery systems (almost double daily average), 1 multiple launch rocket system, 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems (haven't been seen for a while), 91 vehicles and fuel tanks (a high number), 1 piece of special equipment.
Oryx Loss Visualisation
🎦 01:33-07:06⏩
- High Russian losses in personnel, vehicles and fuel tanks.
- 30-day rolling average for vehicles and fuel tanks is at a record high. Jonathan believes this signifies the Russians are attacking everywhere they can, taking heavy losses but also making some gains.
- Tank and APV losses are lower than their rolling averages. Jonathan theorises that this is because they are relying heavily on other types of vehicles (e.g. golf buggies!) for attacks. He saw footage of a Russian attack on a tree line using golf buggies - usually this would be done using infantry fighting vehicles or APCs or Humvees.
- Andrew Perpetua's loss list from 2 days ago (28/10/2024) shows a loss ratio of around 1.5 to 1, Russian to Ukrainian losses. If surveillance and comms equipment are removed the ratio is closer to 2 to 1. For combat assets (e.g., artillery, tanks, APVs, AFVs) the ratio is closer to 2 to 1.
- Ukrainian Losses: A Leopard 1A5 has been destroyed (potentially the first), a Bradley, half a dozen Western-provided APCs including M113s, Humvees, Strikers, Senators and a couple of MRAPs. The destroyed to damaged ratio is not too bad. 3/4 of IFVs destroyed, less than half of APCs destroyed. Both MRAPs were taken out completely.
- Russian Losses: A TOR-M1 air defence system was destroyed by a Switchblade 600 drone (footage/stills shown in a previous video). Some very old artillery pieces were destroyed including an M46 howitzer designed in 1946. Jonathan believes this highlights that the Russians have used up their stockpiles of decent artillery. A dozen tanks were destroyed or abandoned (a mixture of T-72s, tracked MT-LBs and unknown types), 10 infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-1s, BMP-2s, BMP-3s, BTRs) mostly destroyed or abandoned. A number of APCs and AFVs, not many trucks. No golf buggies but other vehicles that Jonathan believes could be used for attacks.
- Jonathan will be interested to see if Andrew's next loss list includes other vehicles like ATVs, quads and golf buggies.
Mediazona/BBC Russia Report on Russian Deaths
🎦 07:06-09:13⏩
- Kiev Independent reports on the Mediazona (BBC Russia) project that tracks Russian troop deaths.
- This project does not include LPR/DPR forces or foreign mercenaries.
- They have strict criteria and only include confirmed deaths related to the war from social media and public announcements.
- Confirmed deaths: 75,382 Russian soldiers since the beginning of the invasion.
- Oryx has recorded almost 793,000 pieces of Russian equipment destroyed. The Mediazona figures represent over 10% of this figure.
- The Oryx figures include dead, wounded, prisoners of war and deserted.
- Jonathan believes that if the Mediazona figure was doubled and LPR/DPR figures were included, it would broadly align with the general staff figures.
Robotic Units Reduce Ukrainian Casualties
🎦 09:13-10:07⏩
- NV.UA report: Robotic units (UGVs - unmanned ground vehicles) have helped reduce Ukrainian military casualties by 30% according to the General Staff.
- The Central Research Institute has confirmed the effectiveness of these systems on the front line.
- UGVs are sometimes included on Andrew Perpetua's loss list.
- Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians will be using UGVs more and more as they are saving lives. They have granted licenses for over 200 different drone models (aerial, ground and sea).
Russia Hits Residential Building in Kherson
🎦 10:07-10:52⏩
- The Russians have published a video of a Russian drone hitting a residential building in Kherson.
- United24 stated that the Russians are showing the world that they hunt and kill civilians.
- They are able to do this because the West has shown weakness for 32 months (according to Jurgen).
- They are now openly sharing their war crimes on social media.
Israel Destroys Russian-Supplied Air Defence Systems in Iran
🎦 10:52-13:14⏩
- The Wall Street Journal has reported that Israel's strikes on Iran also hit Russia's arms industry's image. They destroyed Iran's anti-missile systems supplied by Moscow.
- This followed Ukraine's hits on more advanced Russian defences.
- Israel destroyed all of Iran's S-300 air defence systems and possibly some S-400s which were central to its defence. 3 of the 4 systems supplied by Russia were hit on 26/10/2024, the last one was destroyed earlier.
- Russia claims that their air defence systems are good but they have been taken out relatively easily in Ukraine and now in Iran by Israeli jets.
- This suggests that Russian air defences may be overhyped and not as good as claimed.
- This war has shown that the perception of Russia as a military power is very different from the reality. They were previously considered the 2nd most powerful army in the world and the West was afraid of them. They have been shown to be a "paper bear".
- The West (e.g., Duda, the Polish President) is showing signs of wavering in their support for Ukraine.
- Jonathan believes that now is the time to increase the pressure on Russia not reduce it.
Overnight Russian Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 13:20-15:25⏩
- During the night Russia hit Sumy with a missile and launched 62 drones into Ukraine.
- 33 were shot down, 25 brought down by electronic warfare and 1 returned to Russia.
- This means that 3 drones may have hit their target.
- Alana Holushka shared an image of a destroyed building in Kharkiv and stated that this used to be someone's home and is now their grave. She believes that new rules of global interaction are being written now that secure terrorism by a nuclear state as untouchable and worthy of a visit from the UN boss.
- Jonathan is angry and frustrated at the West (and US in particular) for not allowing Ukraine to properly defend itself. This is resulting in Ukrainian deaths.
- He can't wait for the US election to be over in the hope that the right side for Ukraine wins and decisions can be made. He feels there is currently a paralysis in decision making.
Russia Claims Zheleznogorsk Under Attack
🎦 14:50-15:25⏩
- Russia says that Zheleznogorsk in the Kursk region is under attack. Reports of drones and fire.
- The fires may have been started by air defence systems shooting down the drones.
- Jonathan wonders if Ukraine is preparing to launch a massive attack.
- He believes the lack of large-scale drone and missile attacks by Ukraine into Russia suggests they are stockpiling and getting ready for a big attack.
Ukraine-Russia Talks on Energy Infrastructure
🎦 15:26-17:19⏩
- Rumours that Ukraine and Russia are in talks about not striking each other's energy infrastructure.
- Jonathan believes this could be a clever move by Ukraine.
- They have recently started to hit Russian power stations after previously only targeting oil refineries etc.
- This could be a way for Ukraine to defend its own energy infrastructure by showing Russia that they can retaliate. Ukraine could then suggest a "gentleman's agreement" between Zelenskyy and Putin to stop targeting energy infrastructure.
- Jonathan isn't sure if this includes hydrocarbon facilities (refineries and depots). He suspects Ukraine will want to continue hitting those.
- Ukraine's ability to survive the winter is at stake so this could be a sensible move.
Ukraine Strikes North Korean Barracks in Russia
🎦 17:19-18:00⏩
- El Pais (Spain) has reported that Ukraine has struck several buildings in Russia where North Korean servicemen were stationed.
- It has been reported that around 3,000 North Koreans are in Kursk but it's not clear if this is in the city itself or the surrounding region.
Eastern and Southern Front Challenges - Overview
🎦 17:59-20:01⏩
- Big problems on the Eastern and Southern fronts particularly in the eastern corner by Vuhledar.
- Emil Kastehelmi's analysis: Russia recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk along a 70km front. The attackers broke through Ukrainian defences in a few days in many areas. Dangerous developments are expected.
- Jonathan will discuss this in more detail in his Frontline update video.
- Things are not looking good for the Ukrainians on the battlefield in a number of places, although they are counterattacking around Turetsk and doing well.
- In general, the Russians are putting a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians.
200,000 Russian Troops in South but No Offensive Groups Formed
🎦 18:39-19:45⏩
- Russia has gathered 200,000 troops in the south of Ukraine according to the Defence Forces of Southern Ukraine spokesperson.
- This figure includes the occupying forces in Crimea.
- There are no offensive groups formed.
- Jonathan questions the point of this type of claim (i.e., 200,000 troops - we should be worried, oh actually not offensive troops so no need to be worried).
- These troops are positioned in Crimea and will include support staff (e.g., mechanics, logistics) not just combat troops.
- Similar claims were made about Luhansk (120,000 troops) but the reality was probably only 20,000 combat troops.
- There are rumours that Russia is preparing for an attack in Zaporizhzhia. This could all be part of that.
North Korean Troops in Kursk and Biden's Response
🎦 20:01-21:00⏩
- Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder has confirmed that a small number of North Korean troops are in Kursk.
- President Biden said that Kyiv should strike back at them if they enter Ukraine.
- Jonathan thinks this is obvious and that Ukraine should welcome them with open arms.
- He believes Biden should be making a stronger statement and give permission to the Ukrainians to do a lot more than they are currently allowed to.
Fossil Fuel Purchases Funding Russia's War
🎦 21:00-22:47⏩
- China, India and Turkey have funded the war by buying Russian fossil fuels.
- China bought the most, India second and Turkey third.
- Germany is in 4th place but if the whole EU is considered they would be in 2nd place with 26.5% of all Russian energy exports.
- Germany (and the EU) have been weaning themselves off Russian hydrocarbons. It takes time to turn off the supply and find alternative sources.
- Germany has also been dealing with inflation and trying to ensure its economy isn't hammered by the higher price of energy from elsewhere.
- The key questions are: How much were Germany and the EU importing before the war? How much are they importing now? Is this figure continuing to decline? If not, something needs to be done.
Howard Buffett's Support for Ukraine
🎦 22:47-25:07⏩
- Billionaire Howard Buffett (Warren Buffett's son) has been supporting Ukraine.
- Jonathan has talked about billionaire philanthropists before. Some billionaires reach a point in their lives where they decide to use their wealth to do good (self-actualisation).
- Decent people who become billionaires (e.g., Bill Gates) are more likely to do this compared to sociopathic billionaires (e.g., Rupert Murdoch, Donald Trump) who just want more and more.
- Howard Buffett is putting his father's fortune to good use. They have donated hundreds of millions to Ukraine, more than some countries.
- George Soros' foundations have also done similar things. He is hated by the US political right but he has done impressive work in Ukraine.
- Howard Buffett has been in Kharkiv photographing Russian arrivals and incoming bombs.
- The Buffett Foundation is providing a lot of support to the Kharkiv region including children's kitchens, DNA laboratories and equipment for the police.
- Jonathan believes we should praise people like this rather than complain about those who don't do good. We should thank them for doing the right thing.
Pumpkin Carving and Halloween
🎦 25:07-26:55⏩
- It's Halloween and Jonathan normally carves a pumpkin. He didn't last year because of his MS which affects his hands.
- He shows some images of pumpkins that he has carved in the past.
- He is thinking about carving one today and putting the Ukrainian trident on the back.
Wrap up
🎦 26:55-27:01⏩
- Jonathan says goodbye and wishes his viewers a happy Halloween.
Return to top⤴️
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Who is Jurgen (10:43)? I can't find any other references to him.
Is Emil Kastehelmi (18:00) the person who runs the "War in Ukraine" twitter account?
Is Zheleznogorsk (14:50) the correct spelling? I can't find a place with that name in the Kursk region.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Extract the title, date and part from the Youtube Video Title
Identify the topics within the transcript and create concise topictitles
Identify the timeframes for each of the topics and ensure that the entire video is covered with no gaps
Summarise the topics
Choose a quote
Record any queries
