Ukraine Conflict (20231027): Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"It's an interesting point. As I said this morning, I think the Ukrainians have probably got more reserves built up in the Kherson area because I think they were getting ready to do a pincer attack if they had succeeded in the Robotina area, the Zaporizhia sector."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war for 27 October 2023. He notes there has not been a lot of change over the last 24 hours, just a few pins in the Avdiivka area. Workmen are banging away upstairs, causing some loud noises.
Return to top⤴️
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk Area
- Geolocated public footage published on 26 October indicates Russian forces made marginal advances southwest of Limanpashchik, which is northeast of Kupyansk.
- Footage shows Ukrainian 3rd Tank Brigade shelling Russians in this location.
- A Russian mail blogger claimed Russian forces made unspecified marginal advances west of Svatova, likely in the general area of Nadia, Novoharivka, and Ryarodka.
- The size of the Russian force grouping in the Kupyansk and Liman directions remains at roughly 100,000 personnel, but this includes troops in training facilities and not just frontline troops.
Bakhmut Area
- Geolocated footage published on 26 October indicates Russian forces advanced south of Ozarianivka.
- Footage shows mortar shelling of Russians south of Ozarianivka.
- Russian sources claim Russian forces marginally advanced near Vazhyokivka, north of Bakhmut.
- A Russian mail blogger claimed Russian forces attacked and occupied heights northeast of Kramova.
- There has been very little advance from either side around Bakhmut, with heavy fighting likely still ongoing particularly to the south of the city.
Avdiivka Area
- Russian sources claimed on 25-26 October that Russian forces continue advancing near the waste heap of Avdiivka and are successfully defending their positions there.
- A Ukrainian reserve officer stated on 25 October that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces fully control the waste heap.
- Russian forces from other directions are replacing Russian battalions that have suffered losses in the Avdiivka area. Storm Z prisoner detachments are refusing to conduct combat operations and are abandoning positions.
- A Russian mail blogger claimed on 26 October that Russian forces have fire control over 90% of Ukrainian ground lines of communications in the Avdiivka area, but the ISW has not observed indications this is true.
- Surat Maps shows possibly one of the biggest gains for Russians in a single day north of Donetsk airport, taking control of the quarry and tree lines northwest and north of Opytne. Troops also advanced north of Spartak. However, this may not reflect the last 24 hours and other mappers like Andrew Perpetua and Deep State Map do not show these gains.
Novomykhailivka Area
- Geolocated footage published on 26 October shows a Russian tank with a mine roller plow through minefields southeast of Novomykhailivka until getting damaged and abandoned.
- This does not necessarily indicate the area is controlled by Russian forces, but rather a single tank trying to advance through the grey zone.
- The tank reached very close to Novomykhailivka itself before being taken out.
Velyka Novosilka Area
- A Ukrainian spokesperson stated Russian forces suffered heavy losses and withdrew after attacking Volodymyrivka on 24 October.
- Russian mail bloggers claimed on 25-26 October that Russian forces marginally advanced north and northeast of Pryiutne.
Zaporizhzhia Area
- Ukrainian forces have slowed the tempo of their offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia oblast due to poor weather.
- Neither Ukrainian nor Russian artillery are actively firing due to poor visibility.
- There have been attacks and counter-attacks around this area but no changes to the front line.
Kherson Area
- Near Pidstepny on the left bank of the Dnipro River, Russians are now systematically hit in their dugouts. Ukrainian forces have increased their presence in the area.
- Geolocated footage published on 25 October shows Ukrainian forces marginally advanced north of Pidstepny.
- Russian mail bloggers continue to claim Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Krynky and that Ukrainian forces continue to transfer small groups of reinforcements to the area.
Wrap up
Jonathan senses there may be a culmination or transfer of momentum occurring. He is unsure if the Russians have enough capability for significant, sustained pressure along large parts of the front line. They may be able to push in certain areas like Avdiivka but likely cannot simultaneously push in the northeast, Bakhmut and everywhere else. The Russians seem to have enough to make incremental gains in some places, like between Kupyansk to Kremmina, but then run out of steam allowing Ukrainians to counter-attack or bring in defenses. Jonathan thinks the Ukrainians probably have more reserves built up in the Kherson area as they were preparing for a pincer attack in conjunction with the Zaporizhzhia sector. With the offensive bogged down there, the forces near Kherson may have extra capacity to cause problems for the Russians. This could be an area where we see more Ukrainian initiative and momentum compared to the rest of the front line.
Return to top⤴️
