Ukraine War BUMPER Update NEWS/ANALYSIS: Geopolitical News - Fico, Serbia, Hungary, Musk
Table of Contents 📖
"No more Empire, Vladimir, you f*ing ahole. Excuse my language."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
*Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for a Ukraine War News Update, part two for the 12th of January, recorded just before midnight on the 12th, technically going into the 13th of January. *He explains he is recording late to manage workload for the next day, as there is "an awful lot to talk about". *The update will begin with sanctions news.
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US: Sanctions Impacting Russia's Energy Sector
🎦 00:26-00:44⏩
*John Kirby, US National Security Advisor, states that sanctions imposed in November on Russian banks with international ties have severely impacted Russia's energy sector. *These measures aim to weaken the financial foundations of Russia's "war machine" and limit its ability to fund aggression in Ukraine.
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Germany Tows Disabled Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker
🎦 00:44-01:17⏩
*Germany is towing a disabled tanker, part of Russia's "shadow fleet" used to evade sanctions, in the Baltic Sea. *This action, announced on January 11th, is to prevent a potential oil spill. *The tanker is described as "drifting apart" from the shadow fleet.
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Sweden Increases Baltic Sea Military Presence
🎦 01:17-01:34⏩
*Sweden is increasing its military presence in the Baltic Sea. *Deployment includes three warships and a radar reconnaissance aircraft. *This is in response to suspected sabotage of underwater cables in the region, according to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Christensen.
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Finnish Investigation: Dubai Firms Own 55 Vessels in Russian Shadow Fleet
🎦 01:34-02:22⏩
*A Finnish investigation reveals a Dubai-based network managing a large Russian shadow fleet of oil and LNG tankers. *Finnish media agency YLE reports that Dubai firms own 55 vessels in this fleet. *One UAE firm alone owns 24 sanctioned ships. *Jonathan expresses surprise, noting this highlights the support Russia receives from the UAE and parts of the Global South, which is perhaps underestimated by the public.
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US Demands Russia Divest from Serbian Oil Company NIS
🎦 02:22-02:45⏩
*The US has demanded that Russia fully divest from Serbia's NIS oil company by February 25th. *This was announced by Serbian President Vucic. *NIS is 56.15% owned by Gazprom Neft and has been targeted by US sanctions. *Vucic describes the sanctions as serious and intends to appeal for leniency, potentially to a future Trump administration.
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Vucic to Appeal to Trump Administration for Sanctions Leniency
🎦 02:45-03:15⏩
*Vucic plans to ask the incoming US administration to review the sanctions on NIS. *He views the Trump administration as a "soft touch" regarding Russia. *Leaders like Orban (Hungary), Vucic (Serbia), and Fico (Slovakia) see Trump favourably.
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Trump's Sympathies with Orban, Vico, Vucic and Family Business Deals in Serbia
🎦 03:15-03:51⏩
*Jonathan suggests Trump's sympathies lie with leaders like Orban, Fico, and Vucic. *He highlights Jared Kushner's (Trump's son-in-law) recent real estate deals in Serbia, which allegedly include an agreement to erect an anti-NATO statue. *Jonathan expresses concern about potential compromises and pro-Russian leanings within Trump's circle.
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EU Plans New Sanctions Package Against Russia by February 24th
🎦 03:51-04:06⏩
*The European Commission is drafting a new sanctions package against Russia, aiming for approval by February 24th. *This date marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. *The announcement comes from the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (RMFFM).
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Azerbaijan Stops Gas Supply to Serbia
🎦 04:06-04:25⏩
*Azerbaijan has stopped supplying gas to Serbia, citing "force majeure". *Serbia is losing 1.7 million cubic metres of gas per day. *This development is described as potentially "really serious".
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Belgium Restricts Transshipment of Russian LNG
🎦 04:25-04:46⏩
*The Belgian Council of Ministers has approved a royal decree restricting the transshipment of Russian LNG through Belgian ports. *This prohibits reloading LNG originating from or exported by Russia in Belgian ports. *It also bans any assistance, brokerage, or financing of such reloading. *Jonathan views this as significant, indicating "the net is closing on Russia".
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Trump's Potential Impact on Russia Sanctions
🎦 04:46-04:59⏩
*A major concern is the potential impact of a Trump presidency on these sanctions. *If Trump were to ease sanctions, it could undo the pressure on the Russian economy. *Maintaining sanctions is crucial.
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Jane Keefe: Putin Forcing Russian Banks to Finance War
🎦 04:59-05:28⏩
*Jane Keefe reports that Putin is secretly forcing Russian banks to finance the war effort. *This involves loans of $250-400 billion at high interest rates. *These "suicidal interest rates" are the likely reason for recent emergency central bank meetings. *Keefe argues this situation is unsustainable.
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Analysis of Russian Economic Graphs: Hidden War Financing
🎦 05:28-07:34⏩
*Jonathan analyses graphs showing borrowing trends in Russia. *Household borrowing is collapsing due to high interest rates, but corporate borrowing is surging. *This corporate debt is "soft credit-fuelled" and linked to war financing. *Craig Kennedy, cited by Yanis Grug, argues Russia's financial troubles are deeper than commonly assumed. *Military spending may seem sustainable in the budget, but forcing banks to lend to the military industry is a hidden, unsustainable form of war financing. *This forced lending, primarily to war-related sectors, accounts for 73% of incremental corporate borrowing. *Jonathan concludes that the state will eventually have to cover this debt.
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15,000 Protest in Bratislava Against Pro-Russian PM Fico
🎦 07:34-08:32⏩
*Over 15,000 people protested in Bratislava against Prime Minister Robert Fico. *Protesters accuse Fico of aligning Slovakia with Russia after his meeting with Putin. *The protests occurred amidst a gas dispute with Ukraine. *Slogans included "Slovakia is Europe, we are not Russia" and "Slovakia stands with Ukraine". *Jonathan views this as good news, noting the increase in protest size from previous demonstrations of 4,000 people.
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Fico May Veto Further EU Aid for Ukraine
🎦 08:32-09:20⏩
*Robert Fico is considering vetoing further EU aid for Ukraine. *He links this to the suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, which Kyiv stopped since the new year. *Fico's stance is seen as a potential threat to EU aid for Ukraine. *He claims to have received confirmation from Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal regarding the gas transit issue.
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Poland Denies Passage to Fico's Plane En Route to Moscow
🎦 09:20-10:20⏩
*Poland denied airspace passage to a plane carrying a Slovak parliamentary delegation to Moscow. *This action is seen in the context of Slovakia's threats to block EU aid to Ukraine unless Russian gas transit resumes. *Slovakia had also threatened to stop humanitarian aid to Kyiv.
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Zelensky Rebukes Fico: "Betting on Moscow Was a Mistake"
🎦 10:20-11:08⏩
*Volodymyr Zelensky has strongly criticised Robert Fico. *Zelensky states he offered support to Slovakia, but Fico "arrogantly refused". *He accuses Fico of "PR, lies and loud accusations" and of betting on Moscow instead of his own country, a united Europe, or common sense. *Zelensky calls Fico's bet on Moscow "a losing bet from the start". *Jonathan highlights this as a "really strong rebuke" from Zelensky.
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Elon Musk Promotes Fake News About Romania, Interfering in Elections
🎦 11:08-11:26⏩
*Adrian P., a Romanian source, reports Elon Musk is promoting fake news about Romania. *Musk is accused of directly interfering in Romanian elections by supporting a "pro-Russian Nazi apologist". *This is seen as part of a broader issue of social media manipulation and the rise of the populist right, facilitated by tech figures like Musk.
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Elon Musk Facilitates Populist Right Wing and Spreads Disinformation
🎦 11:26-11:42⏩
*Jonathan refers to his previous videos on social media and the rise of the populist right, which are being facilitated by "tech bros" like Elon Musk. *He believes Elon Musk is now a "terrible human being".
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Jonathan's Strong Condemnation of Elon Musk
🎦 11:42-11:57⏩
*Jonathan expresses a very negative view of Elon Musk, stating "100 percent of Elon Musk is idiotic, stupid and bad". *He describes this as his "very highfalutin analysis". *Derek Tinas, another Romanian source, agrees that Musk is "out of control".
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Musk Targets Hungarian Opposition After US, Germany, UK, Romania
🎦 11:57-12:10⏩
*Elon Musk is now targeting the Hungarian opposition after allegedly interfering in the US, Germany, UK, and Romania.
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Musk Amplifies Hungarian MEP's Claims of EU Disrespecting Democratic Norms
🎦 12:10-12:47⏩
*Elon Musk is supporting accusations from a Hungarian MEP that the EU mainstream refuses to respect democratic norms and the will of the majority. *Musk retweeted claims about $10 million USD illegally channelled to the Hungarian left for the 2022 election campaign, criticising the EU's silence on this issue. *Jonathan sees this as Musk getting involved in Eastern European politics to promote the radical right and populist right, which he deems "really, really dangerous".
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Trump's Pick for Hungary Ambassador Acts as Lobbyist for Orban and Russia
🎦 12:47-13:03⏩
*Jonathan expresses concern that Trump's pick for US ambassador to Hungary is acting as a lobbyist for Viktor Orban and Russia. *He predicted this would happen, highlighting it as evidence that "Trump doesn't care for Ukraine".
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Trump's Advisors May Be Influencing Him Positively on Ukraine
🎦 13:03-13:26⏩
*Jonathan believes Trump may be changing his stance on Ukraine due to advice from DOD intelligence services and figures like Mike Waltz. *He suggests Trump is realising the complexity of the situation. *However, he acknowledges that Trump himself isn't likely to be deeply involved in ambassadorial decisions.
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Trump's Team is "Full of Pro-Russian Compromised Individuals"
🎦 13:26-14:40⏩
*Jonathan believes Trump's team is "full of pro-Russian compromised individuals" and that this is "seriously dangerous". *He is "absolutely sure of it".
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Trump's Ambassador Pick Warns of EU Demise and World War Three
🎦 14:40-14:52⏩
*Trump's ambassador pick to Hungary reportedly stated "This isn't going to end well for the EU" and suggested "World War Three starts". *He criticised Joe Biden for giving long-range missiles to Ukraine.
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Ambassador Pressman Praised for Holding Hungary Accountable
🎦 14:52-15:27⏩
*Jonathan praises the current US ambassador to Hungary, Pressman, for holding Hungary accountable and publicly exposing their corruption. *He contrasts Pressman with the "pro-Russian, pro-Hungarian simp" chosen by the Trump team. *He finds the new pick "disgusting".
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Trump's Pro-Russian Ambassador Pick Deemed "Not Cool"
🎦 15:27-15:40⏩
*Jonathan reiterates that the selection of a pro-Russian, pro-Orban ambassador by Trump's team is "not cool" and "disgusting". *He notes the "mixed signals" coming from the Trump administration.
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Trump's Ideological Vacuousness and Reliance on Advisors
🎦 15:40-16:31⏩
*Jonathan argues that Trump is "fairly ideologically vacuous" and "not very clever". *He suggests Trump lacks historical knowledge, understanding of the world, and knowledge of Ukraine specifically. *Trump's conclusions are likely heavily influenced by his advisors. *Jonathan acknowledges this is true for all politicians to some extent, as no leader can be an expert in everything.
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Politicians' Reliance on Experts and Trump's Case
🎦 16:31-17:24⏩
*Jonathan elaborates on the necessity for leaders to rely on experts for advice in various policy areas due to the impossibility of possessing comprehensive knowledge themselves. *He uses himself as an example, stating that even with his broad knowledge, he would need expert advice if he were Prime Minister of the UK. *This reliance on experts applies to Trump as well.
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Criticising Trump is a "Shortcut" for Criticising His "Evil" Team
🎦 17:24-17:40⏩
*Jonathan explains that his frequent criticism of Trump is partly a "shortcut" for criticising the people around him. *He believes some of Trump's advisors, like Stephen Miller and those involved in "Project 2025", are "genuinely evil people" and "dangerous for the United States".
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Trump's "Proximity Bias" and Susceptibility to Advisors
🎦 17:40-18:22⏩
*Jonathan believes Trump is "fairly vacuous" and susceptible to "proximity bias". *He suggests Trump tends to agree with the last person who spoke to him. *This makes him particularly vulnerable to the influence of his advisors, who Jonathan believes are often "dangerous". *He attributes Trump's inconsistencies to this tendency.
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Russian Group Planning to Influence Polish Elections via Disinformation
🎦 18:22-19:10⏩
*Jürgen Naudet reports that a Russian group is planning to influence Polish elections. *This was uncovered by Krzysztof Galkowski, head of the Polish Ministry of Digitalization. *The group, inspired and trained by Russian military intelligence (GRU), aims to use disinformation and recruit content creators to destabilise Poland. *The group is Russian but may recruit individuals of various nationalities. *Poland is described as the "most targeted country in the European Union" in terms of cyber warfare. *Protecting the National Electoral Bureau's systems and combating disinformation are key priorities.
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Poland's Election Protection Plan Amid Russian Cyber Warfare
🎦 19:10-20:24⏩
*Jonathan references a previous interview with Ben Wallace, former UK Secretary of Defence, in relation to cyber threats. *When asked about Elon Musk potentially influencing Polish elections, Galkowski responded that while everyone can express opinions, illegally influencing elections, such as altering algorithms, is unacceptable. *Galkowski announced an election protection plan with details to be revealed later in the month. *Poland's presidential election is scheduled for May 18th, with a potential second round on June 1st.
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Poland's Presidential Election Landscape: Duda (PiS) vs. Tusk (Liberal Coalition)
🎦 20:24-21:04⏩
*Jonathan provides context on Polish politics. *President Andrzej Duda is from the PiS party, which is anti-Russian but also Eurosceptic. *Prime Minister Donald Tusk leads a more liberal, pro-EU coalition. *Both major political factions are anti-Russian.
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Italian PM Meloni: Russia Bogged Down in Ukraine, Gaining Minimal Territory
🎦 21:04-21:17⏩
*Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni states that Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. *Russia has captured only 0.06% of Ukrainian territory in the past year. *This dismantles the narrative that "Russia has already won".
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Meloni Predicts Trump Will Not Abandon Ukraine and Supports Security Guarantees
🎦 21:17-21:47⏩
*Meloni predicts that Trump will not abandon Ukraine. *She expresses willingness to support options Ukraine is willing to support. *Meloni believes security guarantees for Ukraine are crucial for peace, given Russia's history of violating agreements. *She emphasizes that conditions for peace should be negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, and a "just peace" is one Ukraine agrees to.
US Unlikely to Provide Security Guarantees to Ukraine Under Trump
🎦 21:47-22:42⏩
*Jonathan notes that the US, particularly under a Trump administration, is unlikely to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. *He argues that security guarantees are essential for Ukraine to enter peace negotiations meaningfully. *Without guarantees, a ceasefire would simply allow Russia to regenerate and attack again. *Ukraine needs a "cast-iron guarantee" of allied support, similar to NATO's Article 5. *NATO accession or a functional equivalent is considered a prerequisite for peace talks by Zelensky. *However, the US is not currently inclined to offer such guarantees, suggesting European nations may need to step in.
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War Was Supposed to Last Three Days: Meloni's Perspective
🎦 22:42-23:01⏩
*Meloni points out that Russia initially expected the war to last three days. *By February 24th, it will have been three years. *She quips, "This will be the longest three days in Russian history".
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Russia's Minimal Territorial Gains in Ukraine Despite Losses
🎦 23:01-23:29⏩
*In December 2022, Russia controlled 17.4% of Ukrainian territory. *After two years of "extremely important losses", Russia controls 18.06% of the territory, a minimal gain of 0.06%. *Meloni uses this to counter the narrative that "Russia has already won". *She suggests that if Russia is now talking about peace, it's because they are "stuck in Ukraine". *This stalemate is attributed to Ukrainian courage and Western support.
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Meloni Believes Trump Can Advance Peace Solution Through Diplomacy and Deterrence
🎦 23:29-24:00⏩
*Meloni states "This Trump knows well", referring to Russia being stuck. *She recalls Trump's "capacity of dosage of diplomacy of deterrence" during his presidency. *She foresees this approach being applied again. *Meloni believes Trump "can be a person who can move forward in the solution" for peace. *She does not foresee a US disengagement from Ukraine, which Jonathan hopes is true.
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Macron and Starmer Meeting: Ukraine, Middle East, UK-EU Relations
🎦 24:00-24:21⏩
*Emmanuel Macron met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers. *They reaffirmed commitment to supporting Ukraine, discussed the Middle East, and UK-EU relations. *They also prepared for an upcoming Franco-British summit.
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Potential for Closer UK-EU Functional Relationship Post-Brexit
🎦 24:21-24:57⏩
*Jonathan speculates that the UK may be moving towards a closer functional relationship with Europe, without rejoining the EU. *He personally would favour rejoining the EU, but acknowledges the political sensitivities. *He notes that public opinion polls suggest views on rejoining have changed since the Brexit vote eight years prior, potentially justifying another vote.
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Von der Leyen Struggles to Secure Meeting with Trump
🎦 24:57-25:23⏩
*EU chief Ursula von der Leyen is reportedly struggling to secure a pre-inauguration meeting with Trump. *Jonathan sees this as "really sad news". *He contrasts this with the accessibility Trump appears to grant to right-wing figures and "anyone" in populist politics at Mar-a-Lago, while seemingly not prioritising a meeting with the head of the EU.
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Concerns Mount Over US-EU Trade and Security Policies Under Potential Trump Presidency
🎦 25:23-25:31⏩
*Bloomberg reports mounting concerns over US-EU trade and security policies should Trump regain the presidency. *Von der Leyen previously worked closely with the Biden administration, suggesting a potential shift in US-EU relations under Trump.
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Russian Z Blogger's Offensive Comments About Californians
🎦 25:31-25:55⏩
*Anton Gerashenko highlights a "disgusting video" from a Russian Z blogger. *The blogger states that Californians "deserve the fires" and that they will "destroy sinners". *Jonathan shares this content to demonstrate the negative views some in Russia hold towards the West. *He believes many Russians support this propagandist viewpoint.
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Call to Show Russian Propagandists on Western News to Expose Russian Views
🎦 25:55-26:17⏩
*Jonathan argues that Russian propagandists should be shown on Western national news. *He believes the general population, particularly in America, is unaware of how Russians view them. *Showing Russian propaganda would make it "far, far more obviously" clear "who the bad guys are".
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Mike Waltz: Russian Economy Will "Dry Up" Allowing Putin to Negotiate
🎦 26:17-27:08⏩
*Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor to the incoming Trump administration, says the Russian economy and Putin's "military machine" will "dry up very quickly". *This economic pressure will force Putin to negotiate. *Waltz suggests leveraging this situation, including potentially lifting restrictions on long-range weapons for Ukraine. *Jonathan views this as "good news" and "saying some of the right things".
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Waltz: Pressure Russia with Energy Sanctions and Increase US Energy Exports
🎦 27:08-27:57⏩
*Waltz adds that they will pressure Russia by applying energy sanctions and increasing US energy exports. *Jonathan expresses hope that this kind of talk is being heard within the Trump administration. *He sees this as appealing to Trump's "transactional nature". *He suggests a trade-off: maintaining sanctions on Russia in exchange for increased US oil sales to Europe. *Jonathan supports this approach, as the priority is to keep sanctions on Russia.
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Trump's Potential Lifting of Sanctions Would Be "Bad News"
🎦 27:57-28:12⏩
*Jonathan expresses concern that Trump might lift sanctions on Russia. *He refers to Trump's past statements at the Economic Club of New York indicating a dislike for sanctions and a likely intention to lift them. *This would be "bad news for the war in Ukraine". *Jonathan hopes people like Waltz and others can change Trump's mind.
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Rawls: "Unrealistic" to Expel Russians from All Ukrainian Land, Including Crimea
🎦 28:12-28:32⏩
*Rawls states it is "unrealistic" to expect to expel all Russians from all Ukrainian land, even Crimea. *He notes that "President Trump has acknowledged this reality". *Jonathan disagrees with publicly stating this position, even if it might be true. *He argues that declaring Ukraine won't regain all its land weakens their negotiating leverage.
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Counterproductive Rhetoric on Ukraine's Territorial Goals in Negotiations
🎦 28:32-28:56⏩
*Jonathan explains that in negotiations, one should start with "maximalist objectives" (e.g., "we want the world"). *Starting with a weakened position, like conceding territory beforehand, is "counterproductive". *Even if regaining all Ukrainian territory is unrealistic, publicly stating it weakens Ukraine's hand in negotiations. *He finds this rhetoric "annoying" and "not helpful".
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Waltz: Trump-Putin Call Expected Soon, Preparations Underway for Meeting
🎦 28:56-29:15⏩
*Waltz expects a phone call between Trump and Putin "in the coming days or weeks". *Preparations are underway for a meeting between them. *Trump believes dialogue with Russia is necessary for a Ukraine agreement. *He plans to work on this in the coming months.
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Trump-Putin Meeting Preparations Underway
🎦 29:15-29:32⏩
*Jonathan reiterates that preparations for a Trump-Putin meeting are underway.
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Switzerland Ready to Host Trump-Putin Summit on Neutral Ground
🎦 29:32-30:20⏩
*Switzerland is ready to host a Trump-Putin summit, offering its neutral ground for peace talks. *Bern has informed all parties of its availability, but won't take the initiative. *Jonathan digresses to share a personal anecdote about swimming in a fast-flowing, cold river in Bern during a campervanning trip.
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Putin Ready for Talks with Trump, No Preconditions Set
🎦 30:20-30:50⏩
*Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, states Putin is ready for talks with Donald Trump. *No preconditions are required, only "mutual willing, political will and readiness for dialogue". *Trump stated Putin wants to meet, and Putin said he will talk to Xi Jinping soon.
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Putin's Goal: Barring Ukraine's NATO Accession in Talks with Trump
🎦 30:50-31:23⏩
*The Financial Times reports Putin's main goal in talks with Trump is to push for barring Ukraine from NATO accession. *This is seen as problematic by Jonathan. *Putin's goals also include reducing Allied military presence in NATO's eastern flank.
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Jonathan's Opinion: Trump Not "Very Clever" on Geopolitics
🎦 31:23-32:24⏩
*Jonathan states, "Trump isn't very clever on stuff like this" and "not very knowledgeable". *He argues Trump's lack of knowledge is evident in his vague and non-detailed statements. *He contrasts Trump with knowledgeable leaders who provide facts, figures, and ideological understanding when discussing complex issues. *Trump, according to Jonathan, consistently resorts to "BS splurge" and lacks detailed understanding.
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Trump's Vague Answer on Ukraine: "Tremendous Military Capability"
🎦 32:24-33:10⏩
*Jonathan criticizes Trump's vague answer when asked by Fox News what he would do differently in Ukraine. *Trump's response focused on "tremendous military capability" and helping Ukraine "survive", without specifics. *Jonathan finds this answer meaningless and asks "What the F does this actually mean?".
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Boris Johnson's Stronger, More Direct Language on Russia Compared to Trump
🎦 33:10-33:59⏩
*Jonathan contrasts Trump's vagueness with the directness of Boris Johnson. He plays a clip of Johnson forcefully stating "No more Empire, Vladimir, you fing ahole. Excuse my language". *Jonathan wishes Trump would use similar strong, clear language against Putin and Xi Jinping.
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Trump and Musk's Lack of Criticism of Putin and Xi Jinping
🎦 33:59-34:13⏩
*Jonathan points out that neither Trump nor Musk ever says anything negative about Putin or Xi Jinping. *He finds this "absolutely unacceptable".
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Article 5 Invoked Once for US - Danish Help in Afghanistan After 9/11
🎦 34:13-35:10⏩
*Jonathan shifts to discuss NATO's Article 5, which has only been invoked once, by the US after 9/11. *He highlights Denmark's contribution to Afghanistan, deploying troops for 20 years and losing 43 soldiers. *Wesley Morgan notes the Danish battalion fought hard in Helmand, unlike some larger NATO contingents in quieter areas. *Denmark invoked Article 5 to help the US, demonstrating allied solidarity.
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US Considering "Invading" Denmark/Greenland: Trump's Greenland Interest
🎦 35:10-35:48⏩
*Jonathan expresses dismay that despite Danish support, the US under Trump considered "invading" Denmark to acquire Greenland. *He criticises the idea of using military force to "get Greenland off of" Denmark, especially after allied support through Article 5.
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All Greenlandic Parties Reject US Interest in Greenland
🎦 35:48-35:54⏩
*None of the five Greenlandic political parties are interested in becoming part of the US.
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Trump Preparing "Shock and Awe" Executive Orders on "Day One"
🎦 35:54-36:14⏩
*Trump is reportedly preparing over 100 executive orders to implement on "day one" of a new presidency. *This is described as a "shock and awe campaign" focused on border security. *Jonathan anticipates the next two years will be "nuts".
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Next Two Years Under Trump Administration Predicted to Be "Bonkers"
🎦 36:14-36:49⏩
*Jonathan anticipates the next two years will be "absolutely bonkers" under a Trump administration. *He promotes his weekend update, highlighting two big stories. *Firstly, Trump is signalling he's operating under "Russian reflexive control". *Secondly, Ukraine is showing the ability to undertake complex attacks, but material support is crucial.
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Philip O'Brien: Trump Operating Under "Russian Reflexive Control"
🎦 36:49-37:05⏩
*Philip O'Brien suggests Trump is operating under "Russian reflexive control". *This means Trump is reacting to Russia's actions and narratives rather than dictating terms to Russia. *It implies Trump is "beholden to Russia" rather than forcing Russia to be beholden to the US. *O'Brien suggests Biden's "anti-escalation" approach is also problematic in this regard, but Trump's approach seems "far worse".
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Outgoing US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin Mourns Ukrainian Losses
🎦 37:05-37:47⏩
*Outgoing US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in his "final hours at Ramstein", expressed mourning for Ukrainian losses in "Putin's murderous war". *He saluted Ukrainian troops fighting for their country and freedom. *Jonathan wishes for similar rhetoric from those close to Trump.
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Greenland Parliament Rejects US Statehood
🎦 37:47-37:56⏩
*Jonathan reiterates that all five parties in the Greenlandic Parliament have said "no" to Greenland becoming part of the USA.
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Recap of Video on Social Media Manipulation and Tech Bro Agendas
🎦 37:56-38:07⏩
*Jonathan refers back to his earlier "massive video" on social media manipulation. *He highlights how social media is being used to manipulate people towards certain agendas, such as those of "tech bros" and "billionaire oligarchs".
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Elon Musk Now Promoting "Outright Russian Propaganda" - Sputnik
🎦 38:07-38:32⏩
*Jonathan states Elon Musk is now promoting "outright Russian propaganda". *He cites Musk spreading "Sputnik", a known Russian propaganda outlet, indicating Musk is "basically taking stuff from the Kremlin". *Jonathan expresses "despair at Elon Musk".
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Rory Stewart: Facing Trump, Musk, and Far-Right, We Are "Frogs in Boiling Water"
🎦 38:32-38:54⏩
*Rory Stewart warns that facing Trump, Musk, and the far-right in Germany and Austria, "we are becoming frogs in the boiling water". *Jonathan refers to Rory Stewart as a former Conservative MP and candidate for party leader and Mayor of London, for whom he has "a lot of time".
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Musk and Trump Agree with "Mass Expulsions" - Echoes of 1930s
🎦 38:54-40:02⏩
*Gerhard Nauss states "Musk and Trump agree with the concept of mass expulsions". *Rory Stewart in a previous video suggested the current political climate is increasingly resembling the 1930s. *Jonathan notes the rise of far-right movements like FPO in Austria and AFD in Germany, alongside similar trends in the US. *He highlights the dangerous rhetoric of mass deportations, comparing it to historical persecution: "I want to get rid of 15 million people...it sounds rather like I want to get rid of the Jews."
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AFD and FPO: "Nice" Rhetoric Masks Dangerous Extremism - Echoes of 1939
🎦 40:02-40:32⏩
*Jonathan draws parallels between the rhetoric of AFD and FPO and the early stages of Nazi Germany. *He quotes Maurice Stewart, saying in Germany it "started with, we're going to do this peacefully, we're going to do this nicely. And that's how it all starts." *He warns that the seemingly moderate rhetoric of AFD and FPO could escalate into something far more dangerous, potentially "a full-blown 1939 2.0".
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AFD Speaker's Extremist Comment: "We Can Always Shoot Them All Afterwards" (Migrants)
🎦 40:32-40:46⏩
*Jonathan quotes Christian Luth, speaker of the AFD Parliamentary Group in Thuringia, making an extremist comment about migrants: "We can always shoot them all afterwards. That's not an issue at all. Or gas them or whatever you like. I don't care." *This comment, made in September 2024, demonstrates the extremist views within the AFD. *Jonathan stresses that this is "definitely not the moderate side of the AFD party".
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Musk Interviews Alice Weidel (AFD) - Attempting to Moderate AFD's Image?
🎦 40:46-41:12⏩
*Jonathan critiques Elon Musk's interview with Alice Weidel of the AFD. *He notes the attempt to portray the AFD as moderate by pointing to Weidel's identity (gay, married to someone of Sri Lankan descent). *Jonathan argues that Weidel's personal identity doesn't represent the entire party and that she is only "comparatively moderate" within a far-right context.
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Trump's 2025 Immigration Plans: "Mass Deportations" and "Giant Camps"
🎦 41:12-41:39⏩
*Trump's 2025 immigration plans involve "transatlantic vision, sweeping raids, giant camps and mass deportations". *He aims to revive and expand "draconian" immigration policies from his first term. *Stephen Miller, a key figure in Trump's immigration policy, promises "biggest deportation in history".
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Stephen Miller: "Neo-Nazi", "Fascist" and "Evil" Figure in Trump's Team
🎦 41:39-42:05⏩
*Jonathan describes Stephen Miller as one of the "evil people around Trump" and a "neo-Nazi" and "fascist". *He believes Miller would "fit like a glove" in the AFD. *Jonathan warns viewers to be aware of the dangerous political direction.
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Analysis of Musk's Tweets: Interference, Insults, Hate, Disinformation, No Criticism of Russia/China
🎦 42:05-43:01⏩
*Jürgen Naudet analysed Elon Musk's tweets in a single day and found:
- 64% interference in other countries' politics.
- 15% insults.
- 11% hate.
- 53% disinformation.
- 0% criticism of Russia.
- 0% criticism of China.
- 0% positive content.
*Despite Musk's recent call for more "beautiful and positive things" on Twitter, his own tweets are overwhelmingly negative and propagandistic.
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BBC Verify: Musk Spreading Disinformation on UK Grooming Gang Scandal
🎦 43:01-43:33⏩
*BBC Verify investigated Elon Musk's tweets related to the UK grooming gang scandal. *They found "a range of false and misleading information being amplified" on Musk's X timeline. *This is presented in a three-minute infographic video.
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Musk's Posts on UK Grooming Gangs Sharply Increased Recently
🎦 43:33-43:42⏩
*Musk's posting activity on UK grooming gangs has "increased sharply in recent weeks". *Sakir Sharma criticised those spreading lies and misinformation on the grooming gang issue, without naming Musk directly.
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BBC Verify Timeline Analysis: Musk's Tweets Mostly on US/UK Politics and Grooming Gangs, False Information
🎦 43:42-44:07⏩
*BBC Verify analysed Musk's timeline for a single day (Monday 6th, midnight to midnight GMT). *Out of 153 posts:
- 33% on US politics.
- 48% on the UK, almost all about grooming gangs.
*These posts contain "a range of false information".
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Musk's False Claims: Brown "Sold Little Girls for Votes", Starmer "Complicit in Mass Rapes"
🎦 44:07-44:31⏩
*Examples of Musk's false claims:
- He posted that former PM Gordon Brown "sold those little girls for votes".
- He claimed Keir Starmer was "deeply complicit in the mass rapes in exchange for votes".
*These claims are unfounded, and "there is no evidence" to support them.
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Musk Shares Misleading Post About MPs and Deporting Rapists - False Context
🎦 44:31-44:42⏩
*Musk shared a screenshot falsely claiming to list MPs who voted against deporting rapists. *This was actually a letter from MPs in 2020 about deporting Jamaican nationals, unrelated to the grooming gang issue or a vote on deporting rapists. *Musk called this "unconscionable", despite its misrepresentation.
Musk's Misleading Post About Andrew McIntyre - Falsely Portrays Extremist as Victim
🎦 44:42-45:22⏩
*Musk shared a post about Andrew McIntyre, jailed for seven years, adding "This is misleading". *In reality, McIntyre was jailed for encouraging violent disorder, criminal damage, and possessing a knife, not just for social media posts. *McIntyre's posts included calls to attack Muslims, Jews, and non-whites. *His home contained weapons and "Mein Kampf". *Musk's post misleadingly portrays an extremist as a victim of unjust sentencing for social media activity.
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Musk's "Ouch" Comment on Grooming Gang Scandal - Downplaying Seriousness
🎦 45:22-46:25⏩
*Musk responded to a post about the grooming gang scandal with "Ouch". *Jonathan views this as downplaying the seriousness of the issue and contributing to misinformation. *He praises the BBC Verify analysis as "really well put together".
Geopolitics, Democracy, and the Fight Against Disinformation - Ukraine War Context
🎦 46:25-47:05⏩
*Jonathan connects the issue of disinformation and Musk's actions to geopolitics and the Ukraine war. *He argues that "it's all geopolitics and interference in democracy". *Ukraine is fighting for democracy, and "we are fighting to hold on...to democracy in a world that's going in the wrong direction".
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Daily Mail: Cummings and Musk "Plot to Sabotage UK Politics"
🎦 47:05-47:21⏩
*Jonathan mentions a Daily Mail front-page headline: "Musk and Cummings in plot to sabotage UK politics". *The article suggests Dominic Cummings, former advisor to Boris Johnson and mastermind of Brexit, is colluding with Musk. *Government sources claim Cummings is "Starmer baiting Tycoon" and planning his own party.
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Dominic Cummings: Mastermind of Brexit, Divisive Figure, "Steve Bannon to Boris Johnson"
🎦 47:21-48:08⏩
*Jonathan explains who Dominic Cummings is for viewers unfamiliar with UK politics. *He describes Cummings as "the mastermind behind Brexit" and "behind Boris Johnson", comparing him to "Steve Bannon to Trump". *Cummings is a "really divisive figure" in UK politics and is reportedly planning to set up his own party.
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Cummings Allegedly Aiding Musk to "Destabilise the UK" with Startup Party
🎦 48:08-48:28⏩
*The Daily Mail article suggests Cummings is "aiding and abetting Musk to overthrow the government and install their own startup party". *He is allegedly "feeding Musk with a strategy to destabilise the UK". *One source calls Cummings "a traitor".
Philip O'Brien: Cummings "Backing Pro-Putin Forces" Like Musk, "Selling Out Britain Again?"
🎦 48:28-48:58⏩
*Philip O'Brien comments that "Dominic Cummings was never really about taking back control". *He suggests Cummings is "backing pro-Putin forces, voices such as Musk". *O'Brien questions if Cummings is "selling out Britain again?", implying past actions were also pro-Putin. *Jonathan notes Cummings reportedly lived in Moscow for three years after his degree, hinting at possible Russian connections.
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Government Sources Claim Cummings and Musk Sabotaging UK Politics
🎦 48:58-49:22⏩
*Jonathan reiterates the government sources' claim that Cummings is helping Musk orchestrate attacks on Keir Starmer to sabotage UK politics. *He finds this "fascinating".
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Musk Increasingly Recognised as "Fascist" and "Far-Right Disinformation Propagandist"
🎦 49:22-49:50⏩
*Jonathan states that "increasingly in the democratic free world, Elon Musk is being recognised as fascist, far-right disinformation propagandist".
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German Universities, Courts, Football Clubs Withdrawing from Twitter/X Over Musk-AFD Link
🎦 49:50-50:21⏩
*Over 60 German and Austrian universities, the German Federal Court of Justice, and multiple top German football clubs announced on Friday they are withdrawing from Twitter/X. *This is a direct result of Elon Musk's discussion with Alice Weidel of the far-right AFD.
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Musk "Tweeting His Way into Germany's Parliamentary Election", Promoting Pro-Russian AFD
🎦 50:21-50:50⏩
*Musk is seen as "tweeting his way into Germany's parliamentary election". *He is reportedly "arguing that only AFD can save Germany", and the AFD is pro-Russian. *Jonathan notes the AFD has been criticised as a "neo-Nazi group". *He draws a historical parallel to Henry Ford, another auto mogul who "helped fuel the rise of German Nazism". *He accuses Musk of going "all in to promote the rise of Germany's neo-Nazis".
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Musk's Diablo 4 Ranking - Is He Faking It? Gaming Community Suspicions
🎦 50:50-51:15⏩
*Jonathan addresses questions about how Musk has time for all his activities, including being ranked top in the Diablo 4 computer game. *To achieve this ranking, one would need to play "like bloody 18 hours a day". *Jonathan suggests "all the information is that he's got someone playing for him".
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Musk "Lying" About Gaming Achievements - Indicative of "Egomaniacal Narcissist" Character
🎦 51:15-52:37⏩
*Jonathan believes Musk is "lying" about his Diablo 4 ranking. *He doesn't care about the game itself, but finds "lying about it and bragging about the achievements is problematic". *This behaviour is "indicative of his egomaniac character". *He encourages viewers to investigate, pointing to analyses of Musk's Path of Exile livestream. *In the livestream, Musk reportedly demonstrated a lack of basic game mechanics knowledge inconsistent with being a top player.
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Trump and Musk: "Egomaniacal Narcissists" Who "Lie, Lie, Lie" - Standing Up for Truth and Democracy
🎦 52:37-52:58⏩
*Jonathan concludes by grouping Trump and Musk together as "egomaniacal narcissists that want to rule the world". *He accuses them of being defined by "lies and disinformation". *He calls for viewers to "stand up for truth, let's stand up for accuracy, and let's stand up for democracy".
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Call to "Shed Ourselves of the Influence of Elon Musk" - Moving to BlueSky
🎦 52:58-53:10⏩
*Jonathan urges viewers to "shed ourselves of the influence of Elon Musk in our lives". *He mentions he is showing some Musk-related content on Twitter/X but is trying to move to BlueSky as much as possible.
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Wrap up
🎦 53:10-53:11⏩
*Jonathan signs off with "Anyway, that's enough for me. Take care, guys. Speak soon. Toodlepips."
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