Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine is forbidden by the US from striking...the source of these attacks...Russians inflict terror purely on the civilian population while the US forbids Ukraine from striking back."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first part of his Ukraine War Update for the 7th November 2024 and apologises for being a little behind with his videos.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - General Staff Update
🎦 00:11-00:59⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses for the previous day noting that the figures are high.
- Personnel: 1,400 (very high)
- Tanks: 10 (high, above average)
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 20 (above average)
- Artillery Systems: 24 (above average)
- Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 78 (very high)
- Special Equipment: 8
Jonathan observes that the high losses suggests that there is heavy fighting with the Russians attacking.
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Mapping Update
🎦 00:59-01:14⏩
Jonathan mentions that he is behind with his mapping updates due to the US elections. He had promised to do one the previous day but ran out of time and is trying to do one today. He laments that there are likely to be lots of pins on the map, most of them red, suggesting heavy Russian losses.
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Russian and Ukrainian Losses - Visual Confirmation
🎦 01:14-03:08⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua noting:
- Combat asset losses for the Russians are huge compared to the Ukrainians. He estimates that the loss ratio could be as high as 3.5 to 1.
- Ukrainian losses include an S-125 2D air defence system (Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians have been using these older systems to attack targets within Russia such as Taganrog), an electronic warfare piece of equipment, a boat, one piece of artillery, three tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles (including a damaged Bradley) and a number of MRAPs (nearly 10, all Western supplied).
Looking at Russian losses, he observes:
- Heavy tank losses (around 25) about half of which are irretrievably lost.
- 8 visually confirmed "track garden sheds" (a nickname used to denote destroyed Russian tanks with cope cages that resemble garden sheds). Jonathan notes that their presence highlights their use in suboptimal ways by the Russians, who do not appear to be taking advantage of their capabilities. He speculates that the turrets or barrels may no longer be usable or that they are more useful as APCs at this point.
- 15 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs)
- Large numbers of BMP-1s, BMP-2s, BMP-3s, "cracked garden sheds" (a reference to destroyed BMPs), and BTRs, most of which have been abandoned or destroyed.
- Five APCs (all MTLBs), all irretrievably lost.
Jonathan notes the large number of vehicles and equipment lost by the Russians, while acknowledging that the loss of their air defence systems will hurt Ukraine.
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Karakavet: Ukrainian Armed Forces Destroy Five BTR-82s
🎦 03:08-05:27⏩
Jonathan highlights a user comment in relation to the large equipment losses being sustained by the Russians, showing how active the Ukrainian Armed Forces are.
- Bellahub posted images of five destroyed or abandoned BTR-82s in the Karakavet area along with a number of Russian dead (referred to as "deadniks") which Jonathan chooses not to show. The user observes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are busy with no time to worry about the US elections or a possible loss of aid. The user suggests that people should stop "dooming" (being pessimistic about the outcome) and instead donate to Ukrainian units that need help, observing that they all do.
- Jonathan adds that three more destroyed or abandoned BTR-82As were subsequently reported nearby suggesting that the total number destroyed could be as high as eight in one attack.
- Jonathan concludes that these types of large mounted attacks are still taking place with the Russians still throwing a lot of equipment at the Ukrainians who are doing a good job at taking it out. He concedes that these successes will come with Ukrainian territorial losses.
Overnight Drone Attacks
🎦 05:27-07:26⏩
Jonathan reports on further overnight Russian drone attacks:
- Russia launched a massive wave of 106 drones into Ukraine. 74 were shot down and 25 were stopped by electronic warfare, meaning that 99 drones fell from the sky over Ukraine.
- While no drones were reported as returning to Russia, 7 did hit their targets. Jonathan notes that even a small number of drones can cause significant damage.
- The main targets were Kyiv and Odesa, with damage reported in both cities.
- Jonathan shows images of a drone being shot down over a city (believed to be in Ukraine). He notes that even with good interception rates, falling debris from intercepted drones will cause damage.
- There are reports of low-flying drones in Kyiv during daylight hours suggesting that they are deliberately targeting the city.
- In Odessa, one man was injured and an 11-story building was hit. There are reports of damage to cars and a gas pipeline. Jonathan speculates that this damage was caused by falling debris.
Kyiv: Eight Hour Drone Attack
🎦 07:26-09:29⏩
Jonathan focuses on the attacks on Kyiv:
- He shows alarming images of a residential building in Kyiv that was hit during the eight-hour drone attack on the city, noting the scale of the damage.
- He expresses his anger and frustration about the Wall Street Journal article reporting that the Trump administration is considering a plan to freeze the conflict and block Ukraine from joining NATO for 20 years.
- Anton Gerashchenko reports that six districts in Kyiv suffered damage as a result of the attacks.
- Tim White reports from Kyiv that the air raid sirens lasted all night - more than 8 hours. He confirms that six districts of the city were affected by falling debris or drone strikes, showing footage of a building that suffered a direct hit and images of a drone flying low over the city in daylight.
Kyiv: Sheltering From the Drone Attacks
🎦 09:29-10:19⏩
Jonathan reports on the impact on Kyiv's residents and the use of air raid shelters.
- While there were only two injuries reported in Kyiv, Jonathan notes that Russia has improved the density of the attacks and its drone models, meaning that no one is complacent. Residents are now quick to head to shelters when the air raid sirens sound.
- Footage is shown of key metro stations filled with residents sheltering from the attacks.
Russia Using Iranian-Made Drones Almost Exclusively
🎦 10:19-11:06⏩
Jonathan discusses observations about the types of weapons being used by Russia:
- Jane Litvinenko notes that although Russia has been bombing Ukraine every night for the past two months, it has been using Iranian-made Shahed drones almost exclusively.
- Jonathan finds this interesting, especially as very few large-scale cruise missile attacks have been observed. He wonders if Russia is saving ballistic missiles for another purpose or if there is an issue with their construction.
Ukrainian Strike on Dagestan
🎦 11:06-11:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent Ukrainian strike on Dagestan.
- Kyiv Independent reports that Ukraine may have targeted uranium weapon supply routes in a strike on Dagestan.
- The attack involved two large plane-type drones that struck targets in the Caspian Sea. While the precise consequences of the attack remain unclear, there was speculation that ships were damaged.
Russia: Woman Pressured to Fight in Ukraine After Stealing Butter
🎦 11:51-13:16⏩
Jonathan reports a story highlighting the impact of sanctions on Russia.
- A 33-year-old woman from the Nizhny Novgorod region in Russia was pressured to sign a contract with the Defence Ministry after she was accused of stealing 29 packs of butter from a shop.
- The story illustrates the high cost of everyday food items in Russia. The woman's desperation to steal butter suggests that she was struggling financially.
- Jonathan sarcastically notes that Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lutt explained the rise in prices as being due to Russians having increased their incomes.
- Jonathan believes that the woman being pressured to join the war highlights Russia's need to recruit more soldiers.
Russian Air Force Ineffective: Pilots Last a Month
🎦 13:16-15:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the ineffectiveness of the Russian Air Force.
- Tim White shares a report based on a post by Russian Z-blogger Anastasia Kasia Varova on Telegram, revealing that Russian attack aircraft are only lasting two weeks to a month due to a lack of trained staff.
- Varova argues that the current system is ineffective and costly, as untrained fighters are being thrown into battle, leading to a high mortality rate. She notes that due to staff shortages, other specialists, such as tankers, drone operators, engineers, and communications specialists, are being deployed as attack aircraft pilots.
- Jonathan believes that a mistranslation in the report means that Varova is actually referring to these specialists being deployed as part of "attack meatwaves," i.e. ground troops, rather than attack aircraft pilots.
- Jonathan hopes that Varova's claim that the survivability of both aircraft and pilots is low and that the Russian Air Force is struggling is accurate.
Google Maps Update: Military Objects No Longer Displayed
🎦 15:13-15:49⏩
Jonathan ends on a more positive note with the news that Google has fixed an issue with Google Maps:
- Military objects and systems are no longer displayed in the future. This follows the accidental publication of updated maps by Google the other day that included sensitive Ukrainian military targets, causing panic in Ukraine as the information could have been accessed by Russia.
- Jonathan is relieved that the situation has been resolved and hopes that no equipment was lost as a result.
Wrap Up
🎦 15:49-15:57⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and for their support. He says goodbye and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unclear about what the drones slammed into in the Dagestan attack. The transcript mentions that it was rumoured to be two ships. Could this be clarified?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a complex task with many steps that require a good level of attention to detail, but I will work through it step by step and apply the rules/guidance provided to ensure consistency. First, I'll extract the title, date and part from the Youtube Video Title. Then, I will split the transcript into topics and create topic titles for each, recording the timeframes. Finally, I will summarise the key points for each topic making sure to include as much context, insight and nuance as possible from what Jonathan says in the transcript. For the quote, I will choose one that stands out - it looks like there are quite a few to choose from!
