Ukraine War Update: Kursk Attack News & Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia literally outsourced their domestic defense to Jake Sullivan, and Ukraine just ignored him."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:54⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a special update on the significant events unfolding in Kursk Oblast. He apologises for the delay in updates, explaining that he has been on holiday and enjoying some respite from the "face-melting sun" with his family.
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Kursk Oblast: Location & Context
🎦 00:54-02:23⏩
Jonathan uses a map by Andrew Perpetua (noting that he has been unable to update his own map) to pinpoint the location of Kursk. The map shows Ukrainian forces attacking north from the Sumy Oblast towards Kursk city. Simultaneously, Russian forces are engaged in Kharkiv Oblast, attempting to establish a buffer zone towards Kharkiv city. Jonathan highlights conflicting claims about territorial gains: some sources suggest Ukrainians have advanced 15-30km into Kursk, while others report Russian control extending 10km into Ukraine. He advises caution with these figures due to information warfare and the deliberate spread of misinformation.
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Kursk Oblast: Large Number of Russian POWs
🎦 02:23-03:33⏩
Jonathan highlights videos circulating online that depict numerous Russian prisoners of war (POWs) captured in the Kursk region. These captives include border guards and likely conscripts. The sheer volume of POWs is reportedly causing logistical issues for Ukraine in terms of transportation. He emphasises the strategic significance of these captures, as they provide valuable leverage for prisoner exchanges and deplete Russian frontline manpower.
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Kursk Oblast: Russian Disinformation & Civilian Appeals
🎦 03:33-04:16⏩
Jonathan dismisses Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims of 660 Ukrainian servicemen and 82 armoured vehicles lost since the start of the incursion as blatant propaganda. Contrasting with the Russian MoD narrative, videos have emerged of Kursk civilians directly appealing to Putin for help, highlighting a sense of panic and abandonment. Jonathan describes the situation as a PR disaster for Putin, exposing the unpreparedness of Russian forces.
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Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian Successes & Russian Losses
🎦 04:16-05:46⏩
Jonathan details a series of Ukrainian successes:
- Propagandist Yevgeny Poddubny has been seriously injured.
- Claims, supported by video evidence, suggest the downing of a Ka-52 attack helicopter and a Mi-28N electronic warfare helicopter.
- Additional reports indicate the possible downing of another Ka-52.
- The use of Russian guided glide bombs in the Kharkiv sector has decreased significantly, indicating effective Ukrainian deterrence of Russian close air support.
- Reports suggest Russian forces mistakenly targeted their own retreating troops in Sojia with glide bombs.
Kursk Oblast: Analysing Ukrainian Territorial Gains
🎦 05:46-07:25⏩
Returning to Andrew Perpetua's map, Jonathan observes Ukrainian territorial gains of at least 18km into Kursk, acknowledging the map's conservative estimates. He cites claims of Ukrainian control over Sojia and the presence of Ukrainian flags in Gontarovka. Further reports suggest Ukrainian forces have reached Lyubimovka and may even be operating near Martynivka. Jonathan notes unconfirmed reports of a Russian counter-attack being organised at Bolshoi Soldatskoe.
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Kursk Oblast: MLRS Castelhami's Situation Update
🎦 07:25-09:46⏩
Jonathan shares insights from military analyst MLRS Castelhami, who reports ongoing Ukrainian advances in all directions within Kursk Oblast. Castelhami highlights Ukrainian control of Svyatohirsk and ongoing pushes towards Koronovo and Rilsk. He acknowledges the difficulty in determining the precise extent of Ukrainian control, suggesting the map represents a conservative assessment. Castelhami expresses concerns about the operation, noting the attrition of valuable reserves, the lack of significant urban center captures, and the risk of overextension. He emphasizes the urgency for Ukraine, as Russia will inevitably reorganise and reinforce.
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Kursk Oblast: The "Raid or Planned Offensive" Debate
🎦 09:46-11:45⏩
Jonathan presents contrasting views on the nature of the Kursk operation:
- War Mapper: Initially assessed the incursion as a raid, later revising this assessment.
- Jonathan: Believes the operation displays signs of planning beyond a simple raid, citing preparatory attacks on infrastructure and defences.
- Kursk Vice Governor, Alexei Smirnov: Declares a state of emergency in the region, acknowledging the "difficult operational situation" on the border, indicating growing concern.
- Agency: Estimates the area affected by Ukrainian military presence to be 350 sq km.
Kursk Oblast: Putin's Downplaying & Russian Blame Shifting
🎦 11:45-14:13⏩
Jonathan discusses:
- Putin: Convened an emergency security council meeting but dismissed the situation as a mere "large-scale provocation".
- Anton Gerashchenko: Notes Russia's attempts to blame the UK for the offensive, reflecting their outdated Cold War mentality.
- Russian MP Shkhagoshev: Accuses the UK of involvement, citing the presence of English speakers, and predictably, French and Polish mercenaries.
- US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller: Reiterates that Ukraine alone dictates its military operations but emphasises the US policy against using Western weapons for strikes deep within Russia, leaving the definition of "deep" open to interpretation.
Kursk Oblast: Podolik's Strategic Insights & Negotiating Leverage
🎦 14:13-14:54⏩
Jonathan highlights Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolik's statement, marking the only official Ukrainian comment on the operation. Podolik suggests the incursion could strengthen Ukraine's position in future negotiations. The captured territory could act as a bargaining chip, mirroring Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian regions: Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.
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Kursk Oblast: John Halian's Analysis & High Stakes Gamble
🎦 14:54-17:46⏩
Jonathan delves into a detailed analysis from open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst John Halian:
- Russian Border Defences: Likely designed to deter small-scale raids, not a multi-brigade assault.
- Ukrainian Build-Up: Potentially overlooked by Russian High Command, forcing a hasty response.
- Reconnaissance Groups: Creating confusion and exaggerating the perception of Ukrainian control.
- Troop Deployment: Two to four Ukrainian brigades are estimated to be operating in the area, raising concerns about their necessity in the east.
- HIMARS Restrictions: Ukraine cannot utilise HIMARS within Russia, limiting its firepower.
- Strategic Concerns: Holding territory in Kursk while defending the east could overstretch Ukrainian resources, questioning the operation's long-term viability.
Halian concludes by expressing his concerns about the operation, comparing it to "high-stakes gambling with a bad hand".
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Kursk Oblast: Oliver Carroll's Report & "Emperor Has No Clothes" Analogy
🎦 17:46-18:43⏩
Jonathan summarises journalist Oliver Carroll's article in _The Economist_:
- Ukrainian Motivation: Potentially an attempt to expose Russia's vulnerabilities, suggesting "the emperor has no clothes".
- Risk Assessment: The operation is inherently risky, with most Ukrainian officials remaining silent on its objectives.
- Anonymous Intel Source: Carroll reports an unnamed intelligence source expressing satisfaction with the operation's progress.
- Options and Flexibility: Jonathan suggests the incursion could be a "suck it and see" tactic, creating a range of possibilities for Ukraine, such as seizing a nuclear power plant or a POW camp, giving them flexibility and leverage.
Kursk Oblast: Tatarigami's Cautious Assessment & Russian Internal Reserves
🎦 18:43-22:13⏩
Jonathan analyses insights from military analyst Tatarigami:
- Skepticism: Tatarigami initially expresses doubts about the operation, citing the precarious situation in Donbas.
- Humanitarian Win: Acknowledges the capture of numerous Russian POWs as a significant victory for Ukraine, providing valuable leverage for prisoner exchanges and offering hope to the families of Ukrainian captives.
- Russian Response: Predicts Russia will deploy internal reserves from Kursk, Moscow, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts, potentially drawing on units from the northern grouping.
- Absence of Swift Reaction: Indicates a lack of preparedness and potentially a failure in Russian intelligence gathering.
- No Diversion of Resources: Observes that Russia has not diverted resources from its offensive operations in Donetsk or its central grouping, suggesting the Kursk operation has not yet forced a significant shift in strategy.
- Morale Impact: Notes the impact on Russian social media and influencers, suggesting a sense of shock and anger, but acknowledges the potential for this to be short-lived, as seen with previous setbacks.
- Ukrainian Counter-Intelligence: Highlights the success of Ukrainian counter-intelligence in achieving surprise despite Russia's advanced surveillance capabilities.
- Logistical Challenges: Expresses reservations about Ukraine's ability to sustain a deep advance into Russia, particularly in terms of logistics, air defence, and electronic warfare.
- Resource Constraints: Recognises Ukraine's limited resources and the potential for an eventual slowdown, leading to a pullback or fortification of current positions.
Jonathan uses a metaphor of a boulder thrown into a pond to illustrate the diminishing returns of a deep advance without continuous resource allocation. Tatarigami concludes by acknowledging the early stage of the operation, hoping for a Ukrainian victory and expressing a willingness to revise his initial assessment.
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Kursk Oblast: Shifting the Narrative & Fighting in Russia
🎦 22:13-25:23⏩
Jonathan presents a diverse range of perspectives:
- Suriyat Maps: A pro-Russian mapper confirms that the Kursk operation has not affected the intensity of Russian offensives in Donbas.
- Jonathan's Musing: He proposes a provocative idea: fight Russia on their own soil to force them to bomb their own towns and infrastructure, potentially shifting the burden of destruction.
- Slava Ukraini: Highlights the effective information blackout surrounding the operation, emphasizing the element of surprise and the creation of a "real fog of war". He praises the operation as a brilliant tactical move.
Jonathan acknowledges the impact of social media in telegraphing past operations, noting the lack of information surrounding this incursion, creating uncertainty and giving Ukraine the advantage of flexibility.
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Kursk Oblast: Mick Ryan's In-depth Analysis & Shifting the Momentum
🎦 25:23-32:34⏩
Jonathan presents a comprehensive analysis from retired Australian General Mick Ryan:
- Surprise & Shock Action: Emphasizes the importance of surprise and shock action in warfare, noting Ukraine's success in achieving both.
- Multi-Brigade Operation: Confirms the involvement of at least two experienced Ukrainian brigades: the 22nd Mechanized and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade.
- Highly Mobile Mechanized Force: Contrasts with Russia's dismounted attacks in Kharkiv, highlighting the speed and shock value of Ukraine's mounted assault.
- Effective Air Defence: Observes the limited use of Russian glide bombs and drones, suggesting successful Ukrainian air defence and electronic warfare operations.
- Significant Territorial Gains: Recognises the scale of Ukraine's advance, marking the most significant territorial gain by either side since late 2022.
- Opaque Battlefield: Refutes the notion of a transparent battlefield, highlighting the enduring importance of deception, intelligence, and surprise.
Ryan explores potential Ukrainian objectives:
- Tactical: Seizing ground and destroying Russian forces.
- Operational: Drawing Russian forces away from Donbas or forcing them to reconsider their force dispositions, creating dilemmas for the Russian command.
- Strategic: Slowing or halting Russian momentum, shifting the war narrative, boosting Ukrainian morale, or seizing territory for future negotiations.
Ryan acknowledges the significant challenges facing Ukraine, including:
- Logistical Strain: Sustaining a deep advance into Russia.
- Force Allocation: Potential strategic error if the commitment of brigades to Kursk weakens defences in the east.
He concludes by highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the operation's strategic and political objectives, emphasizing the need for further observation and analysis.
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Kursk Oblast: Shaping Operations & Cyber Warfare
🎦 32:34-47:09⏩
Jonathan highlights a range of developments and perspectives:
- Mark Krutov: Points to satellite imagery showing damage to an artillery storage base near Kursk, hit by Ukraine on 31st July, six days before the start of the offensive, suggesting a planned shaping operation.
- More Translated: Presents evidence of extensive Ukrainian electronic warfare preparations, disrupting Russian communications and drone operations, highlighting the importance of electronic warfare.
- George Barros (ISW): Emphasises the strategic significance of Ukraine seizing the initiative, forcing Russia to react and face dilemmas in force allocation. Jonathan expands on this point, highlighting Russia's limited manpower and their reliance on conscripts and foreign fighters.
- Colby Badwa: Focuses on the strategic importance of Sudia, noting its proximity to a key railway line connecting Ryansk to Belgorod. Jonathan suggests Ukraine could target railway infrastructure to disrupt Russian logistics.
- War Vehicle Tracker: Reports the return of Wagner PMC mercenaries from Africa to assist in Ukraine, highlighting Russia's growing manpower challenges and the potential for negative political consequences in Africa.
- Yevgeny Dmitrov: Draws attention to a fake video of a captured Ukrainian soldier, demonstrating Russian disinformation efforts.
- Russian Complaints: Jonathan notes Russian frustration with Ukraine's successful evacuation of civilians compared to their own chaotic efforts, highlighting the contrast in concern for civilian well-being.
- War Monitor: Provides further information on the fighting in Sudia, noting a failed Russian counterattack and Ukrainian control of the town.
- NOL Reports: Offers a detailed thread documenting the operation's progress. Jonathan emphasizes the thread's value as a reliable source of information.
Kursk Oblast: Ongoing Advances & Russian Reinforcement Efforts
🎦 47:09-51:47⏩
Jonathan continues to report on the latest developments, citing NOL Reports as his primary source:
- Ukrainian Advance: He notes ongoing Ukrainian advances, emphasizing the growing amount of territory ceded to Ukraine.
- Captured Equipment: Shares a Russian warning to shoot on sight a list of captured equipment, suggesting significant Russian losses.
- Civilian Exodus: Highlights images of empty streets and abandoned vehicles in Kursk, indicating civilian evacuations and the impact of the incursion on the region.
- Foreign Fighters: Rejects Russian claims of Polish and French mercenaries, dismissing it as typical propaganda.
- Romanov (Z Blogger): Confirms Ukrainian advances in the Rilsk direction, contrasting with the official Russian narrative.
- Deep Reconnaissance Groups: Relays Russian warnings about Ukrainian deep reconnaissance groups operating behind enemy lines.
- Inflated Casualty Figures: Rejects Russian MoD claims of heavy Ukrainian losses, describing them as fabrications.
- Wagner Reinforcement: Reports the arrival of Wagner forces from Belarus and Akhmat Special Forces units in Kursk, indicating a concerted Russian effort to reinforce the region.
- Heavy Fighting: Confirms heavy fighting ongoing on the approaches to Koronovo.
- Expanded Ukrainian Flank: Suggests Ukraine may have expanded its flank towards Snagost.
- Ukrainian Control of Kazachia, Lotnia: Notes Ukrainian control over these locations, highlighting the continued territorial gains.
- Possible Ukrainian Presence Near Ivnitsa: Cites reports of Ukrainian tanks firing on Ivnitsa, potentially indicating an even deeper Ukrainian penetration into Kursk Oblast.
Kursk Oblast: DDoS Attack & Growing Russian Concerns
🎦 51:47-53:56⏩
Jonathan reports on:
- Continued Ukrainian Momentum: Emphasises Ukraine's continued momentum, with each report from NOL Reports indicating further territorial gains.
- DDoS Attack: Reports a massive DDoS attack targeting Kursk, disrupting online services and adding to the sense of chaos in the region. This cyber attack demonstrates Ukraine's willingness to employ a multi-domain approach.
- Russian Military Caught Off Guard: Highlights the element of surprise achieved by Ukraine and the embarrassment for Putin.
- Criticism of Russian Leadership: Notes growing criticism of the Russian military leadership from within Russia.
- Concerns About Belgorod: Shares Russian anxieties about a potential Ukrainian offensive into Belgorod Oblast, suggesting a strategy to overstretch Russian forces.
- Electronic Warfare Activity: Reports electronic warfare activity near Klyukiv in the Rilsk direction, indicating ongoing Ukrainian efforts to conceal troop movements.
- Further Map Updates: Anticipates updates to Andrew Perpetua's map, reflecting the rapidly changing situation on the ground.
Kursk Oblast: Russian Defeatism & Humour
🎦 53:56-54:14⏩
Jonathan concludes the update with:
- Silence of Pro-Russian Commentators: Notes the conspicuous silence of prominent pro-Russian commentators who previously boasted of Russian strength.
- Jake Sullivan Analogy: Offers a humorous observation: Russia outsourced their domestic defence to Jake Sullivan (US National Security Advisor), but Ukraine ignored him, highlighting the failure of Western anti-escalation rhetoric to deter Ukraine.
- Toilet Theft Joke: Shares a joke from a commentator: Ukrainians are advancing so quickly because they are not stopping to steal toilets, a reference to widely reported looting by Russian soldiers.
Jonathan reiterates the value of NOL Reports for reliable information and announces his intention to provide further updates.
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Wrap Up
🎦 54:14-54:14⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers and promising to return with further updates.
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