Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"What do you tell Americans about Putin right now? ..... I'm very looking forward to it"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update from ATP Geopolitics, the first part for 7th May 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:13-01:35⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses. Key figures include over 1,160 personnel (a significant number sustained over several days), 25 tanks (a large spike), 14 APVs (slightly below average), and 37 artillery systems (high). Jonathan notes the absence of Andrew Perpetua's list and speculates that recent losses might show parity between Ukrainian and Russian equipment.
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Analysis of Russian Ka-29 Helicopter Destroying Ukrainian Naval Drone
🎦 02:00-05:09⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a Russian Ka-29 helicopter using R-73 air-to-air missiles to destroy a Ukrainian Magura V-5 drone in the Black Sea. He discusses the drone's limited range when launched from the ground versus air and highlights the helicopter's tactical advantage in the encounter. He questions the drone's situational awareness and suggests operating in pairs for improved defence. Jonathan ponders if the drone was solely seeking air targets or was also carrying explosives for attacking ships, concluding with the observation that while Ukraine possesses this technology, its effective use remains to be seen.
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Downing of Russian Su-34 Fighter Bomber
🎦 05:10-06:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the downing of a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber, reporting that it was likely shot down over Belgorod, north of Kharkiv. If true, this is significant as it indicates the reach of Ukrainian air defences and could deter Russian airstrikes on the northern borders. He links this event to the unusually quiet night on the front, with no reported Ukrainian or Russian strikes.
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Ukrainian Attack on Russian Fast Attack Boat in Chornomorsk, Crimea
🎦 06:56-09:02⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian attack on a Russian fast attack boat in Chornomorsk, Crimea. He questions if the Magura V-5 drone was intentionally targeting the boat or if it was an opportunistic attack. Citing Ukrainian GUR (military intelligence), he reveals the boat's cost to be $1.3 million. Beyond the financial loss, Jonathan highlights the strategic value of the attack: intelligence gathering on Russian defences, impacting Russian morale, and forcing them to allocate more resources to protect naval infrastructure.
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Analysis of Russian BMP Destruction by Mine
🎦 09:02-11:10⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a Russian BMP (infantry fighting vehicle) being destroyed by a mine, speculating that all personnel on board likely perished. He questions the tactical decision-making of the Russians, highlighting the seemingly isolated nature of the attack and suggesting that it might indicate suboptimal operational capacity. He contests narratives that solely focus on Ukrainian struggles, arguing that both sides are severely depleted, with the situation resembling the conflict's early stages. Jonathan believes that the potential for Ukrainian gains hinges on attriting Russian forces from a distance and exploiting that period for extensive mobilisation.
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Fire at Brick Factory in Smolensk, Russia
🎦 11:10-11:34⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire at a brick factory in Smolensk, Russia, acknowledging the lack of confirmed connection to the war. However, he notes that local residents reported two explosions before the fire, suggesting a possible link.
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Drone Strike on Electrical Substation in Belgorod, Russia
🎦 11:37-12:31⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a drone strike on an electrical substation used by Russian forces in Belgorod. He predicts that Ukrainian drones will pose a significant challenge for Russians in border regions due to their increasing range and potential deployment from mothership drones. He highlights that striking substations within a 20km radius of the border would severely disrupt Russian operations.
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Crimean Bridge No Longer a Primary Military Target?
🎦 12:31-14:20⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from The Independent newspaper suggesting that Russia has ceased using the Crimean Bridge to transport military supplies, diminishing its significance as a Ukrainian target. Satellite imagery analysis indicates a decline in military cargo on the bridge's rail line over the past three months. Instead, Russia is utilising overland routes in occupied eastern and southern Ukraine for supplying troops. Jonathan advises against targeting the bridge due to its heavy defences and the risk to resources, suggesting that efforts are better directed elsewhere. He speculates that Russia's focus on alternative rail routes through occupied territories reinforces this shift in strategy.
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Putin's Inauguration and Notable Attendees
🎦 14:20-16:35⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's 2024 inauguration, noting the contrasting appearances of Putin in 2000 and 2024. He highlights the attendance of representatives from Hungary, Slovakia, Malta, Cyprus, and Greece, drawing attention to the role of the latter three countries in potentially facilitating the Russian Shadow Fleet. He expresses surprise at France's diplomatic presence, contrasting it with the absence of other EU nations. Jonathan then mocks Steven Seagal's role as a "doorman," jokingly barring attendees like "Frenchie" while welcoming others.
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Steven Seagal's Pro-Putin Stance
🎦 16:35-18:24⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a visibly unwell Steven Seagal struggling to articulate his support for Putin. He mocks Seagal's claim that "with President Putin, it will be the best," sarcastically praising his response. He criticises Seagal for supporting Putin's regime and suggests that this propaganda role might be his only source of income after damaging his career.
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The State of Crimea After 10 Years of Russian Occupation
🎦 18:24-19:37⏩
Jonathan presents footage of dilapidated infrastructure in Crimea, highlighting the decline of the region's tourism industry under a decade of Russian occupation. He argues that despite being a prime holiday destination for Russians, Crimea has suffered from neglect and a lack of investment in tourist facilities. He contrasts this with Russia's focus on militarisation, referencing the construction of trenches along the coastline.
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Wildfires Rage in Russia's Yakutia Region
🎦 19:37-21:10⏩
Jonathan raises concerns about wildfires in Russia's Yakutia region, citing reports of unchecked blazes and a lack of firefighters. He draws parallels with the previous year when similar wildfires ravaged Russia, attributing the government's inadequate response to the deployment of resources and manpower to the war in Ukraine. Jonathan points out that during peacetime, firefighting is a primary responsibility of Russian conscripts, a resource now significantly depleted due to the conflict. He expresses concern over the potential ecological and environmental impact if Russia is unable to contain the fires.
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Russia Repairs Damaged Infrastructure
🎦 21:10-22:54⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to successful Russian repairs of critical infrastructure, citing the reopening of the Tuapse oil refinery after a Ukrainian attack in January and the repair of several warships damaged in previous attacks. He notes that the Tuapse refinery, one of Russia's largest, resumed operations after three months of repairs. He also points out that satellite imagery confirms the return of repaired warships, including the Ivan Khurs, to active duty in Sevastopol. Despite these successes, Jonathan acknowledges the disruption and loss of personnel these attacks caused and anticipates future Ukrainian strikes on such targets.
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Inside a Ukrainian Command Bunker
🎦 22:54-25:51⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian command bunker, highlighting the crucial role of technology in modern warfare. He describes the advanced setup, which includes multiple live drone feeds, digital maps, and communication tools like Starlink, all contributing to the Ukrainian army's effectiveness. He pauses to apologise for a 30-minute delay in recording caused by internet outages, humorously expressing relief that he doesn't have to resort to recording at his in-laws. Jonathan expresses his fascination with the technology on display, drawing particular attention to the digital mapping table and the volume of live drone streams. He acknowledges that while the cleanliness and size of the bunker might not be typical, it underscores the sophistication of Ukraine's military operations.
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Wrap Up
🎦 25:51-26:01⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He apologises again for the delay caused by his internet provider, signing off with "speak soon."
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