(Untitled)
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News05/12/2023Part 1
"So there was no way of Ukraine really prevailing in the way that people were hoping, because time was against them and equipment procurement was against them."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video with his usual greeting and mentions that time is moving along quickly. He then goes through the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses, noting that personnel losses have tipped back over 1,000 after going down to 770 the previous day. He speculates this could be due to weather or a downtick in activities over the weekend. Losses of tanks, APVs, artillery systems, anti-aircraft warfare systems, drones, cruise missiles, vehicles and fuel tanks are also discussed.
Return to top⤴️
Equipment Destroyed by Ukrainian Unit
A translation provided by a viewer (the Dogfather) of a list from a Ukrainian unit called the "Birds of Magia" detailing targets hit and equipment destroyed by them in the last month is shared. The list includes tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, trucks, vehicles, boats, artillery, and drones. Jonathan notes it is an impressive list but some of the translation is unclear.
Return to top⤴️
Daily List of Destroyed Equipment
Andrew Perpetua's daily list of equipment destroyed, compiled by searching social media, is reviewed. It shows a roughly 2:1 ratio in Ukraine's favor which is good but not the 4:1 or 5:1 ratio that would be ideal. The list includes a US-provided counter-battery radar system lost by Ukraine which Jonathan notes would be a sore loss. On the Russian side, an OSA radar system, artillery pieces, tanks, IFVs, and logistics vehicles were lost. Jonathan ponders how much equipment Russia still has in reserve.
Return to top⤴️
Crimea and Kherson Updates
- A Russian OSA air defense system was reportedly destroyed near Oleshki on the left bank of the Dnipro River. This lines up with the "old but noteworthy" OSA system Andrew Perpetua reported as damaged.
- In the Kherson region, a Russian deputy commander shot and killed his commander and wounded another soldier. The exact reasons are unknown but it suggests all may not be well.
- The Russians claim Ukrainian suppression of their air defenses in the Kherson region around Krynky is so effective that Bayraktar TB2 drones have reappeared over the battlefield. If true, this is good news for Ukraine.
- Russia continues to relentlessly target civilian infrastructure in Kherson, hitting another medical facility and injuring two doctors. Two others were killed and two injured in another strike. Jonathan states this is discriminant, not indiscriminate, shelling at this point.
Unmanned Boat Washes Up in Crimea
One of Ukraine's unmanned boats loaded with explosives has washed up on a beach in Crimea, the third one found on Crimea's shores. Villagers found the unexploded vessel on the beach near their homes. Media reports suggest it was previously rendered harmless by Russian electronic warfare.
Return to top⤴️
Odd Vehicle Incidents in Russia
Jonathan notes three odd vehicle incidents inside Russia over the past two days, though he admits they may not be particularly meaningful: 1) In the Voronezh region, a truck drove into a convoy of Russian guards, killing a passenger in the truck and injuring five guards. 2) In Moscow, a Russian army truck driver fell asleep at the wheel, plowing into stationary cars and a police car, causing an explosion. 3) In Kamchatka, a car hit a convoy of conscripts going to breakfast. 11 soldiers were injured, 3 hospitalized, but amazingly none died.
Return to top⤴️
Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
There was significant activity overnight in terms of drone and missile attacks:
- Russia claims 10 out of 17 Ukrainian drones were shot down, so 7 got through. 6 Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles, which are difficult to intercept when used in surface-to-surface mode, were also fired.
- The targets hit in Ukraine are unknown as they tend to keep that information quiet. The drones likely fly predetermined routes to try to locate and "smoke out" Ukrainian air defenses. It's an ongoing game of cat and mouse.
- Russia hit another medical facility in Kherson, injuring two doctors. Two others were killed and two injured in a separate strike. Kherson is being hit relentlessly.
- Explosions were reported in Russian-occupied Crimea, including near the Kerch Bridge which was closed for an extended period. The bridge may have sustained some damage or the closure could have just been a precaution.
- Loud explosions were also heard in Sevastopol near Kazachia Bay, possibly from naval drone attacks. One washed-up drone was found.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that in the morning, 4 more Ukrainian drones were destroyed and 2 intercepted over the Sea of Azov.
- Russian news site Baza reported Ukraine tried to hit an oil depot in Crimea. One drone was shot down inside the depot, another 70m from the tanks. No damage is claimed.
- Explosions were also reported in Taganrog inside the Rostov Oblast, just east of Mariupol. The city hosts an air base used to bomb Ukraine which could have been the target. Taganrog has been struck several times in the past 6 months.
Mobilization Challenges for Ukraine
An analytical note from Deep State Ukraine discusses Russia's manpower advantage due to mobilization and the need for stronger echelon defenses by Ukraine. In one area north of Bakhmut, the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian troops is 5:1, and the situation is likely worse in hot spots like Avdiivka and Kupyansk. Jonathan believes that while Russia likely doesn't have large reserves of quality troops, they are successfully "crypto-mobilizing" (or "klepto-mobilizing" as he jokingly calls it) by pulling in fighters from places like Nepal, Cuba, and African countries with promises of money. Just having "boots on the ground" defensively or offensively in a "meat wave" is enough to challenge Ukrainian forces. In contrast, Ukraine has to pull troops from its own domestic resources without the kind of "hardcore mobilization" Russia is doing by forcing or bribing convicts. This leads to Russia having a numerical troop advantage, though the quality may be lacking. Nonetheless, it presents a huge challenge for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Concerns Over Potential Russian Attack on NATO
Polish officials have said Russia could attack NATO within 3 years, disagreeing with a German think tank report that estimated it could happen in 6-10 years. Jonathan questions whether this is a genuine belief or just an attempt to get people worried.
Return to top⤴️
Wagner Group Updates
A Russian Gray Zone Telegram channel associated with the Wagner Group that was previously very prolific has stopped publishing since November 20th. The admin hasn't been heard from either. Jonathan speculates that after initially resisting subordination to the Russian military, Wagner realized they had no choice but to be assimilated when they were ostracized. Many Wagner soldiers likely have no other prospects and have been forced to either fight for the conventional Russian forces or other Russian private military companies.
Return to top⤴️
Forced Recanting of Abuse Claim
Despite video evidence, Russia forced a mobilized soldier to sign a statement saying it was Ukrainian soldiers, not his own commander, who tied his brother to a tree and left him there overnight as punishment. The soldier has since deleted his original post about the incident. Jonathan sees this as another example of Russian disinformation.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Volunteers Fighting for Ukraine
The 1st Assault Battalion of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), which are Russians fighting for Ukraine, conducted a successful assault near the Avdiivka Coke Plant at the end of October 2023. They cleared trenches, captured an enemy position, repelled 4 counterattacks, and inflicted significant losses, even capturing a Russian Armed Forces sergeant. Notably, former soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces from Wagner and Storm Z private military companies performed well fighting alongside the RDK. Jonathan ponders the psychological impact of shooting against one's own countrymen and former comrades-in-arms.
Return to top⤴️
Economic Troubles in Russia
As proof that all is not well economically in Russia, the central bank has put a cap on the amount Russians can borrow for mortgages, raised the required down payment from 20% to 30%, banned multiple loans, and increased rates again.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He signs off with his customary "take care, speak soon".
Return to top⤴️