Ukraine Conflict (20231111): Full Frontline Update
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"The Ukrainians just need another 100,000 troops, easier said than done, right, but they, you know, in order to prosecute decent offensives, this just takes a greater mass, I think, than they have."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine conflict frontline for 11th November 2023, Veterans/Remembrance Day. He reminds viewers of the map legend.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeast Sector - Kupyansk to Svatove
- Not much change in this sector
- Russian forces have slightly increased focus on assault operations and are using more vehicles in ground assaults
- This is a shift in momentum across the frontline as Russians move to an offensive posture in more areas
- Questions remain over Russian force quantity and quality
- Some repelled attacks reported by ISW around Petropavlivka and Serebiansky Forest
Bakhmut
- Russians pushing back Ukrainian lines both north and south of Bakhmut
- Ukrainians struggling to maintain lines under pressure
- Geolocated footage shows:
- Ukrainian forces likely advancing north of Klishchivka
- Russian marginal advance in forest area north of Klishchivka
- 54th Ukrainian Assault Brigade shelling Russian infantry between Bakhmut and Klishchivka
- Tactically, attacking Klishchivka from low ground is challenging for Russians due to Ukrainian positions on high ground
- Russian forces made confirmed territorial gains in forest area
- Ukrainians continue to hold positions north of Klishchivka behind railway line
- Mines, drones, artillery complicating Russian attacks on southern Bakhmut flank
- Ukrainians may have redeployed some troops from Bakhmut to other areas
Avdiivka
- Situation similar to recent reports
- Russians pushing along railway line northwest of Krasnohorivka and westward towards Stepove
- Stepove industrial area would be challenging for Ukrainians to retake if lost
- Ukrainians giving Russians a hard time in Stepove based on footage, suggesting Russians pushed in but had to withdraw
- TOW missile footage shows Ukrainians still able to inflict losses on Russian troops and equipment
- Ukrainian commanders claim heavy Russian losses of 100 tanks, 250 armoured vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 7 aircraft; 400-600 casualties per day
- Despite losses, if Russians can keep sending troops they can still make gains
- Ukrainians may have made gains northeast of Avdiivka based on Russian blogger claims of Ukrainian counterattacks
South of Avdiivka
- Russians repelled Ukrainian counterattack around Novomykhailivka
- Russians pushing around Vuhledar and Mykilske with losses
- Not much change around Velyka Novosilka, some repelled Ukrainian attacks reported by ISW
Zaporizhzhia Front - Robotyne
- No change reported by mappers used
- ISW says Russian MoD claimed 14 repelled Ukrainian attacks near Lobkove and Robotyne in past week (2 per day)
- Jonathan's opinion is Ukrainians have increased attacks around Novoprokopivka, Kopani, Lobkove and north over the past week
- Ukrainians having some success but need more resources for meaningful gains towards Tokmak
- Attacks here could be enabled by success near Krynky and along Dnipro River in the south
Kherson-Dnipro River Area
- Ukrainians made gains on left bank, retaking positions on Potemkin Island and east of Bilohrudove northwest of Kholodny Yar
- Both Andrew Perpetua and Rybar maps confirm Ukrainian gains pushing back Russians along coast
- 11 Russian vehicles targeted by Ukrainian artillery near Hladivka, only 3 survived based on footage
- Heavy Russian losses in this area impacting ability to defend against Ukrainian attacks
- Russians complain they are struggling against Ukrainian advance with weak counter-battery fire and electronic warfare while Ukrainian drones operate freely
- Conditions favour Ukrainians with Russians lacking drone reconnaissance and counter-battery fire
- Russians still have advantage of air-dropped guided bombs
- As Ukrainians move south into forest area, will be hard to dislodge
- Russians moving reserves like 7th Guards Airborne Division from Robotyne to defend
- Ukrainians need to pile in resources to establish bridgehead or may have to withdraw
- Getting large amounts of equipment across river is key challenge for Ukrainians to avoid being vulnerable
- Attacking in multiple places along river frontline helps spread Russian forces thinner
Wrap up
Jonathan notes an interesting claim that Ukraine has air defence systems waiting to be deployed to front lines together with F-16s when they arrive. Currently the frontline has areas looking positive for Ukraine and others appearing very challenging. He invites viewers to share their thoughts in the comments.
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