Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Drones, Brazil, PR, & Voting for Your Next Leader
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"How are you, Russia, selecting your next leader? Because it looks to me like all those checks and balances, all those democratic checks and balances have been removed or those institutions have been tampered with such that you have no effective democracy."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses a previous video where he talked about comments made by Brazilian President Lula regarding the war in Ukraine that were possibly misinterpreted. Jonathan acknowledges his own political leanings may make him more favorable to Lula compared to the previous Brazilian president Bolsonaro.
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Brazil's Geopolitical Position
- Brazil is part of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), a group of countries presenting an alternative to US hegemony
- Brazil needs to nurture ties with Russia as part of BRICS
- Brazil relies on Russia for fertilizer imports and the US-secured global trade system
- The only outcomes of the Ukraine war that benefit Brazil are:
1) Total Russian strategic victory supplanting the US 2) Return to pre-war status quo
- A Russian defeat, US-China proxy war, or pyrrhic Russian victory putting it in China's pocket all hurt Brazil
Moral Calculations vs Geopolitical Realities
Jonathan argues that while many view the Ukraine war from a purely moral perspective of Russia as the clear aggressor, the reality is that countries have to weigh their own complex geopolitical considerations beyond just the morality of the conflict. This includes economic ties, military spending, and impacts on their own populations. Understanding these nuances helps explain the positions countries like Brazil take, even if we may disagree with them morally.
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Ukraine's Drone PR Campaign
- Ukraine's Ministry of Defense released a slick PR video advertising their upcoming counter-offensive, showing Ukrainian soldiers training on Western equipment
- The high production value video builds anticipation and excitement, feeling more like an announcement for a YouTube tour than a war
- While possibly unsettling to glamorize the offensive that will cost many lives, Jonathan compares it to WWII newsreels and propaganda reels meant to boost morale
- The video demonstrates Ukraine's mastery of information warfare compared to Russia
Impacts of US Intelligence Leaks
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan outlines 5 key impacts of recent US intelligence leaks regarding the Ukraine war:
- Damage assessment by every mentioned intelligence agency, diverting resources
- Distraction to overtasked agencies supporting Ukraine and preparing for other conflicts
- Erosion of trust between US and Ukraine after building deep ties
- Propaganda gift to Russia and China in their influence war with the US and allies
- Difficulty for citizens and militaries to discern truth from fiction, hurting democracies and militaries
The leaks benefit Putin and Xi while hurting Biden, NATO, Zelensky and Ukrainian soldiers. Finding the leakers and understanding ramifications will be critical going forward.
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Drones Over Mariinka
- Many donated to a fundraiser by Thomas C. Theiner's friend Natalia to purchase surveillance drones for Ukrainian troops in Mariinka
- The drones have arrived and provide 24/7 reconnaissance to spot Russian forces for artillery targeting
- Drone footage shows the utter devastation of Mariinka, resembling the destruction seen in Bakhmut and Avdiivka
- While Ukraine has a cohesive drone strategy, they still rely heavily on volunteer and patron fundraising to get drones quickly to front line units
Russian Perspective on Drones
Russian autonomous systems expert Samuel Bendett shares insights from pro-Kremlin Telegram channels on Russian use of drones:
- Russians were surprised in early 2022 by Ukraine's advanced, systematic use of recon drones while Russian TV downplayed the threat
- Russians had to scramble to catch up, largely through volunteers and donations rather than military procurement
- Ukrainian FPV drones are seen as the single greatest threat to Russian forces currently
- Some Russian politicians are only now, in March 2023, realizing drones can be armed and calling for import controls
- Lack of cohesive Russian military drone strategy is forcing reliance on crowdfunding and volunteers to get drones to the front
- Public critique within Russia of state media and politicians being behind the curve on drone warfare evolution
Rebutting Pro-Russian Voices
Jonathan shares an example of a knowledgeable helicopter pilot friend who had absorbed some Russian talking points about the Ukraine war. He argues it shows the effectiveness of Russian disinfo even on those expected to be staunchly pro-Ukraine. To rebut pro-Russian voices, Jonathan says to ask them how Russians themselves select their leaders. Ukraine is fighting for the right to choose their government freely and fairly. Meanwhile, Russia has eroded democratic checks and balances and institutions to make Putin an oligarchic dictator. Russians criticizing Ukraine's "Nazis" should examine how they themselves lack any voice in choosing their leaders before condemning Ukrainians sacrificing for liberty and democracy.
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Wrap up
Jonathan argues that Russians who criticize Ukraine's fight for freedom and democracy should examine their own lack of ability to freely and fairly choose their own leaders. Ukraine represents an existential threat to Putin's regime by demonstrating a functional democracy on Russia's doorstep.
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