Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Lancets, Nadezhdin, Biden, & South Korean Arms Export
Table of Contents 📖
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"It is absolutely fascinating. I'm still going through it now. But what he says about Nazism, what he says about Putin and this war and how this is history repeating itself..."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as a "Ukraine war extra" providing nuggets and tidbits for a greater understanding of the war in Ukraine. He describes it as an eclectic mix or "smorgasbord" of topics.
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Yevgeny Prigozhin's bizarre video
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner PMC mercenary group, posted a bizarre video standing in front of a Wagner cemetery saying there are "absolutely no problems". Jonathan points out how odd it is to stand in front of your own soldiers' graves claiming everything is fine, unless the real message is "don't join Wagner, it's bad". He notes Wagner is struggling to recruit now that they can no longer draw from Russian prisons. Conventional Russian forces are now supporting Wagner PMC in Bakhmut as Wagner has "culminated" and lost momentum there.
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Russian mines collected by Ukrainian brigade
The 28th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces collected a large number of Russian mines during demining operations. Jonathan wonders if the mines can be safely reused by the Ukrainians, perhaps to fortify the border. He notes the huge scale of the demining job Ukraine will face after the war, likely taking many years.
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Competition between German and South Korean tank manufacturers
Jonathan examines an article about the competition between German Leopard 2 tanks and South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks for the European market, especially in Poland. Key points:
- Poland has ordered 1000 K2 tanks from South Korea, part of a massive $14.5 billion arms deal that also includes K9 howitzers, FA-50 fighter jets, and rocket launchers
- This could spill over to other European countries frustrated with Germany's previous reluctance to allow Leopard transfers to Ukraine
- However, South Korea has also not allowed their equipment to be sent to Ukraine
- Advantages of the K2 include lower cost, faster delivery (980 within 5 years vs Germany's initial offer of 1 per month), and the promise of manufacturing and maintenance facilities in Poland
- But the Leopard 2 has the advantage of being an established design with a large existing user base and supply chain
- Smaller countries may prefer to stick with the Leopard 2 for now due to Germany's economic and political influence in Europe
- Other potential customers like Slovakia are considering both options
Jonathan notes Poland's military spending spree raises questions about where the money is coming from and if it will impact other government expenditures, as well as whether they can find enough personnel to operate all the new equipment.
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Criticism of simplistic views blaming leaders for complex military decisions
Jonathan responds to a viewer comment harshly criticizing President Biden for not providing Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles. He argues that in today's polarized political climate, people often fall into the trap of simplistically blaming leaders they dislike for all "bad" decisions, without considering the nuances and constraints involved. In reality, Jonathan contends, Biden or any president is not an expert on military inventory and strategy. Those decisions come from the Pentagon and top generals, who in turn rely on detailed analysis from their subordinates. The President's role is to set broad policy goals, not micromanage tactical choices. While Biden can request options to help Ukraine, he will generally defer to military advice on what is actually feasible based on US strategic needs and resources. Jonathan stresses he is not defending Biden per se, but rather arguing against the knee-jerk demonization of individual leaders by those who disagree with them politically. He urges a more nuanced view that recognizes the complex institutional factors behind high-level military decisions.
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Russian Lancet drone strikes
Jonathan shows footage of Russian Lancet loitering munitions being launched and striking Ukrainian targets, including a camouflaged artillery piece and an American-supplied M109 self-propelled howitzer. He notes this is the first time he has seen video of Lancets being launched. The amount of damage inflicted seems to vary, likely due to differences in the size of the warhead. Some strikes cause fires and seemingly disable vehicles, while others, like the one shown hitting the M109, appear to do little damage, with the vehicle continuing to move afterwards. Jonathan points out that while Lancets are certainly a problem for Ukraine, they are fighting back with their own loitering munitions and drones, which are also causing substantial problems for Russian troops and vehicles.
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Rare criticism of Putin and the war on Russian state TV
A notable moment of dissent aired on Russian state TV, as politician Boris Nadezhdin, an ally of murdered opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, harshly criticized Putin and the war, arguing that Putin's regime is nearing its end, comparing him to Tsar Nicholas I. Nadezhdin called for Russia to stop the war, prompting the interviewer to threaten to "discipline" him. Jonathan suggests such criticism would not air unless approved by the authorities, raising questions about whether it was a mistake or a deliberate attempt to muddy the waters. He recommends viewers watch the full interview clip compiled by Julia Davis.
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Parallels between Putin's actions and the rise of Nazi Germany
Jonathan highly recommends the audiobook "On Tyranny" by Timothy Snyder, which draws parallels between Putin's actions and the rise of Nazi Germany. Some key points:
- Just before WWII, the Soviet Union had a pact with Nazi Germany and they jointly invaded Poland; it is now illegal in Russia to discuss this
- Russia further tightened restrictions on discussing this pact just before invading Ukraine in 2022
- It is also prohibited to call the "special military operation" a war
- Putin is taking pages from Hitler's playbook in terms of territorial aggression and legal restrictions on free speech
- When pro-Russian voices accuse Ukraine of being "Nazis", Putin is in fact the one closely emulating Nazi Germany's actions in the lead-up to WWII
Jonathan finds Snyder's analysis absolutely fascinating and enlightening regarding the historical parallels.
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Ukrainian soldiers rescue hedgehog
The video ends on a lighter note, with footage of a Ukrainian soldier rescuing a hedgehog. Jonathan reflects on the numerous videos showing Ukrainian troops caring for animals amid the war, reminding us of their humanity. As the freed hedgehog scurries off, he remarks it can now "reach its full potential in size and go on and live its hedgehoggy life."
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Wrap up
Jonathan expresses his appreciation for his viewers' support, welcoming new channel members and thanking those who contribute via PayPal and Buy Me a Coffee. He signs off saying "Thanks again, speak soon."
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