Ukraine War Update: News & Frontline (not Bakhmut)
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"I'm a real advocate for like, Britain, we're not going to get attacked. And if we do, Article 5, that's what it's there for, okay? We're not going to get attacked. We don't need these tanks sitting on Salisbury Plain, right? Shoot them all over to Ukraine, job done. 75, 100, not a problem. I don't understand why that's not happening."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the war in Ukraine for January 15th, 2023. This update will not include information about Bakhmut due to time constraints.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Losses and Missile Attacks
The Ukrainian armed forces released their latest figures on Russian losses, which included:
- 630 liquidated personnel (an uptick)
- 2 tanks
- 10 APCs
- 4 artillery systems
- 5 drones
- 26 cruise missiles (related to the cruise missile attack on January 14th)
There was a Russian cruise missile attack on January 14th involving Kh-22 missiles. One missile hit an apartment building in Dnipro, causing at least 20 confirmed deaths with potentially up to 60 casualties. Ukrainian advisor Oleksiy Arestovych incorrectly stated the missile was shot down by Ukrainian air defences. However, the Ukrainian Air Force refuted this, stating Ukraine does not have the capability to intercept Kh-22 missiles, which Russia has launched over 210 of since the war began. Video evidence also shows the missile directly impacting the building with no prior interception explosion. In total, Russia launched 38 missiles (18 cruise missiles, 7 guided missiles from Su-35 fighters, 5 Kh-22 cruise missiles, others unspecified). Ukraine shot down 25 of the 38 missiles, a lower interception rate than usual. There are indications some may have been ballistic missiles, possibly Iranian-made.
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Concerns About Belarus
Despite Ukraine's public reassurances, there is growing concern about Russian military buildup in Belarus. Nearly 100 units of Russian hardware have recently been moved into the country, setting off alarms. The equipment includes troop/supply trucks, support vehicles, APCs and more.
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UK Military Aid to Ukraine
The UK announced it will send 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine in the coming weeks, along with around 30 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers. The AS-90 is a highly capable artillery piece with a max firing range of 25-30km depending on ammunition and barrel length. While the provision of Challenger 2s is symbolically important, Jonathan questions the practicality, as only the UK and Oman operate them, meaning a very limited supply chain for parts and specialised ammunition. He argues it would be better to send a larger number (75-100) to justify setting up the logistics trail. Jonathan advocates for the UK and other NATO allies to send much larger quantities of tanks to Ukraine, as they are not needed for homeland defence due to NATO's Article 5 protections. Fighting Russia in Ukraine is the priority. There are unconfirmed reports the UK may also send a small number of Apache attack helicopters armed with Hellfire missiles. However, the specific variant mentioned has only just started to be delivered to the UK Army, so this seems unlikely.
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Frontline Update: Kupyansk to Kreminna
- The Russian army conducted offensive operations and shelling against Ukrainian positions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near:
-- Stelmakhivka (repelled attack) -- Ploshchanka -- Chervonopopivka -- Kreminna itself
- Ukraine shelled Russian positions in Zhytlivka.
- There are indications the Ukrainian forces are very close to Kreminna. A Ukrainian source reported "a lot is happening" around Kreminna but "silence has been asked", suggesting active operations.
- Video purportedly shows artillery striking Torske, which if true, indicates Russian forces may have advanced further west than previously known in the area north of the forested region near Kreminna. However, the video is unverified.
Frontline Update: Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions
- The update will not include Bakhmut, which requires its own dedicated video.
- There is limited information coming out of most of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia frontline areas. Fighting is ongoing but no major territorial changes.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling Russian attacks:
-- Within 27km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane and Marinka -- Near Pervomaiske, Pobeda, Krasnohorivka, Velyka Novosilka
- There are some indications of HIMARS strikes in Luhansk Oblast but details are limited.
Wrap Up
Jonathan notes the relative lack of information from most frontline areas, speculating that Russian and Ukrainian troops may have been shifted to prioritize the Bakhmut/Soledar sector. He promises to cover the Bakhmut area in a dedicated subsequent video.
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