Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News; Moldova, Navalnaya

"Make no mistake, Putin won't stop in Ukraine. He's just buying more time."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:17⏩

• Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update (second part for 21st October 2024).
• He mentions having a slight issue starting the video but hopes to speak coherently.
• Not much military aid news over the weekend.

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Potential changes to US policy on Ukraine and NATO if Harris wins the election

🎦 00:17-01:38⏩

• Report from Le Monde claims the US might lift its veto on Ukraine's NATO invitation if Kamala Harris wins the upcoming election.
• Jonathan mentions previously discussing the US warming to the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, potentially with Biden leading the effort if Harris wins.
• Restrictions on missiles could also be lifted.
• Harris's National Security Advisor may be Philip Gordon, possibly more hawkish than Jake Sullivan.
• Jonathan speculates that Harris will need to differentiate herself from Biden's approach, either by moving towards Trump's policies or by increasing support for Ukraine.
• Increased support could involve sending more equipment, lifting restrictions, and facilitating NATO membership.

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Ukraine's development of the Sting drone interceptor

🎦 01:39-02:27⏩

• Ukraine is developing the "Sting" drone interceptor, capable of speeds over 160 km/h and altitudes up to 3 km (or possibly 10,000 meters, conflicting reports).
• Controlled via VR glasses, with plans to integrate AI for automatic targeting.
• Sting's cost is estimated to be 10 times less than the Shahed-136 drones it aims to counter.
• Jonathan highlights the ongoing arms race, particularly in drone technology, with a cycle of measures and countermeasures.

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The ongoing arms race in drone technology

🎦 02:28-04:29⏩

• Jonathan analyses the arms race dynamic using the Shahed drones and reconnaissance drones as examples.
• Ukraine's response to Shahed drones: audio listening posts for spatial location, radar networks, mobile air defence units (from machine guns to Patriot systems).
• Russia's countermeasures: painting Shahed drones black, increasing flight altitude and speed, deploying dud drones, using reconnaissance drones for mapping.
• Ukraine's further response: developing drones to counter Shahed drones (like FPV drones used against Orlan, Supercam, and Zala reconnaissance drones), potentially using AI.
• Russia's potential future developments: AI for Shahed drones, countering electronic warfare.
• Ukraine is also using electronic warfare to spoof and take down drones.

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General Cavoli's assessment of the Russian military post-war

🎦 04:30-07:48⏩

• Anton Gerashchenko reports that General Christopher Cavoli, Commander of the United States European Command, believes the Russian army could emerge stronger after the war.
• Cavoli, in an interview with Der Spiegel, cautions against underestimating Russia's military strength.
• Russia has suffered heavy losses but is learning, improving, and applying its wartime experience.
• Jonathan acknowledges Russia's adaptation and improvements despite their use of "meat wave" attacks.
• Cavoli predicts a stronger Russian army post-war, though Jonathan questions the definition of "stronger".
• Russia's best soldiers have been attrited (e.g., 155th Naval Infantry Brigade reconstituted nine times).
• Deep storage equipment has been exhausted, and production capacities are not meeting losses.
• Jonathan believes it will take a long time for Russia to mount a similar war.
• However, Russia will have gained experience, particularly in electronic warfare and drone technology.
• Cavoli points out that Russia's leadership still sees the West as enemies and will be unhappy with the war's outcome.
• He emphasizes the need for preparedness and armed forces capable of withstanding future threats.

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Ukraine's role in the war and the West's knowledge extraction

🎦 07:52-10:48⏩

• Jonathan argues that Ukraine is effectively fighting on behalf of the West, making the conflict a proxy war (not in a pejorative sense).
• Ukraine's refusal of foreign troops and request for weapons highlights this role.
• The West's provision of weapons stems from the strategic importance of Ukraine's resistance.
• Ukraine's attrition of Russian forces benefits the West.
• NATO, the EU, the UK, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are gaining valuable knowledge from the war.
• Coalition capabilities (e.g., the drone coalition) are improving, leading to better equipment and a feedback loop for development.
• The West will have a stronger Ukraine as an ally after the war.
• The rest of the world, particularly the West, will emerge stronger, having learned from the conflict and invested in defence.
• The US, for example, is replacing equipment sent to Ukraine with better versions.
• Increased defence spending and recruitment across Europe are strengthening Western capabilities.
• Jonathan envisions a scenario where the war ends in 2027 with a heavily attrited Russia and a significantly strengthened West.

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North Korea's aid to Russia and South Korea's response

🎦 10:48-12:41⏩

• Following North Korea's aid to Russia, South Korea summons the Russian ambassador.
• Reports suggest 12,000 North Korean soldiers may be on their way to Ukraine.
• Jonathan sees this as a potential own goal for Russia, as it could push South Korea, a "sleeping giant", towards more active support for Ukraine.
• South Korea's defence industry is significant (top 10 exporter), with a large stockpile of weaponry and efficient production capabilities.
• They have undercut European and American manufacturers in the past (e.g., main battle tanks).
• Formal involvement of South Korea in the allied effort could significantly impact the war.
• North Korea's entry into the war might end up costing Russia more in the long run.

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Western components found in North Korean missile intercepted in Ukraine

🎦 12:41-14:10⏩

• Concerns about a North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile intercepted in Ukraine, which contained newly produced electronics from several Western firms:
  • Analog Devices (US)
  • XP Power (UK)
  • NXP (Netherlands)
  • Vargo (US)
• Timothy Milanov, former Ukrainian Minister of Economics, criticises these companies as "at best negligent and at worst complicit".
• NACO analysis indicates most microelectronic components were manufactured in the US, with others traced to Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the UK.
• The infographic lists other companies involved.
• The missile, with a specific serial number, was shot down on 7th September near Myrna and Blyky villages in Poltava Oblast.
• Jonathan questions whether these components reached North Korea through a complex supply chain or if there was direct involvement, calling for action to address the issue.

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NATO's response to North Korea's involvement and South Korea's potential role

🎦 14:10-18:14⏩

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol about NATO's partnership with Seoul, defence cooperation, and security in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions.
• Stoltenberg warned that North Korea sending troops to support Russia would be a major escalation.
• Jonathan reiterates his "own goal" theory for Putin, suggesting the involvement of North Korea might be a deliberate attempt to influence the US elections by provoking a strong reaction and blaming the Biden-Harris administration.
• He suggests downplaying the North Korean situation could be a more effective response.
• NATO's behind-the-scenes meetings with South Korea signal the seriousness of the situation.
• Jonathan praises Stoltenberg's strong stance and his previous resistance to Trump.
• He believes Stoltenberg was a better choice for NATO leadership than someone like Kaja Kallas.
• Any new NATO Secretary General, like Harris potentially succeeding Biden, will need to differentiate themselves from their predecessor.
• Stoltenberg did a good job, but his successor might need to be more robust in defending NATO's objectives and Ukraine.
• Jonathan sees this as a natural human psychology to demonstrate leadership and effectiveness.
• Shashank Joshi from The Economist quotes Luke McGee, stating that Stoltenberg requested South Korea to send a delegation to NATO to share detailed information and expressed hope for stronger defence cooperation and security dialogue between South Korea, Ukraine, and NATO in the future.
• Jonathan views this as a positive development and highlights the need for a leader in Europe to drive collective action.

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The need for a strong leader in Europe

🎦 18:15-21:07⏩

• Jonathan discusses the need for a strong leader in Europe, given the varying strengths and weaknesses of individual countries and their leaders.
• While acknowledging strong leaders like Kaja Kallas of Estonia, he points out that smaller countries cannot drive the entire European agenda.
• He believes that with the UK out of the EU, the responsibility falls on leaders of larger countries like France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
• Jonathan suggests Emmanuel Macron might be the most suitable candidate, while expressing reservations about Giorgia Meloni's right-wing coalition and Olaf Scholz's leadership.
• He notes Macron's strong initial stance but observes a recent decline in his engagement.
• Jonathan proposes that Jens Stoltenberg, as a former Dutch Prime Minister with experience and respect in European politics, could potentially fulfil this leadership role in his position as NATO Secretary General.
• He believes Stoltenberg's non-divisive character and the central position of the Netherlands make him a suitable candidate.
• Jonathan wonders if Stoltenberg will gain more prominence in international politics.

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Moldova's elections and referendum on EU accession

🎦 21:07-26:32⏩

• Moldova held elections and a referendum on EU accession, facing significant Russian interference through disinformation campaigns.
• Jonathan believes Russia aimed to derail the referendum, recognizing Maia Sandu's likely victory in the presidential election.
• He compares the situation to US elections, noting the rural-urban divide in voting patterns (rural areas skewing conservative/Republican, urban areas skewing liberal/Democrat).
• This divide also exists in the UK and across the US.
• Jonathan suggests a similar pattern in Moldova, with smaller, rural districts initially skewing against EU accession, while urban areas, counted later, supported it.
• This pattern can lead to accusations of cheating, but it's simply how vote counting works.
• With 98.56% of votes processed, the "yes" vote for EU accession won by a tiny margin (less than 1,000 votes).
• Moldova's Central Electoral Commission released preliminary results, showing 50.38% for "yes" and 49.62% for "no" on EU accession.
• Michael Weiss highlights the impressive victory despite Russian interference.
• Politico reports on Moldova's narrow "yes" vote, defying Russia.
• At one point, with 90% of votes counted, "yes" was lagging by almost 10 points, which could fuel suspicions of manipulation.
• Jonathan explains this by the later counting of votes from urban areas and absentee ballots from Moldovans living abroad, who are more likely to be pro-EU.
• In the presidential election, Maia Sandu received 42.3%, Alexander Stoyanov (pro-Russian candidate) 26.1%, and another candidate 13.8%.
• Jonathan predicts Sandu will likely win the second round against Stoyanov.

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Russia's reaction to Moldova's election and EU accession referendum

🎦 26:32-29:32⏩

• The Kremlin demanded that Maia Sandu provide evidence of the election's legality, claiming foreign interference.
• Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President's press secretary, called for evidence of foreign interference.
• Dmitry from WarTranslated criticizes Peskov, urging him to respect Moldova's sovereignty.
• Renew Europe, a centrist group in the European Parliament, expresses concern about reports of election interference and vote rigging.
• They condemn Russia's hybrid war against democracies and stand with the Moldovan people's desire for a European future.
• Maia Sandu claims 300,000 votes were bought, alleging unprecedented fraud.
• She will face the pro-Russian candidate, Alexander Stoyanov, in a runoff.
• The GRU, Russia's military intelligence, is reported to have hacked Georgia's Central Election Commission, gaining access to email accounts and media organisations' IT systems.
• They also accessed Georgia's National Railway Company's systems for over two years.
• Jonathan highlights the extent of Russian involvement in these events.

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Carol Cadwalladr's thread on the "Great Information War"

🎦 29:36-34:50⏩

• Jonathan discusses a thread by Carol Cadwalladr (journalist and disinformation expert) on the "Great Information War".
• Cadwalladr argues that we are already eight years into the first great information war, which began in 2014, with the invasion of Ukraine as the latest front.
• The idea that the West is not involved is a lie; the information war is part of the larger conflict.
• Putin's anger at the removal of President Yanukovych in 2014 triggered the information operations, which were crucial in the invasion of Crimea and Donbas.
• The Soviets have practiced disinformation for years, but the transformative element in 2014 was the use of social media technology.
• This represented a powerful form of hybrid warfare, manipulating hearts and minds almost invisibly.
• Russia also launched an information offensive against the West, specifically America, in 2014.
• The FBI's multi-year investigation (Mueller report) proved beyond doubt that Russia attacked the 2016 US election through multiple routes, including via tech platforms like Facebook.
• This was a military technique pioneered in Ukraine in 2014 and refined by 2016.
• Russia wasn't alone; companies like Cambridge Analytica, political operatives like Manifold, and individuals like Dominic Cummings also exploited the openness of these platforms.
• The Mueller report proves Russia's involvement, and Ukraine is at the center of it all.
• Jonathan recommends reading Professor Tamsin Shaw's thread on Aaron Banks's business partner and the Russian spy.
• In 2016, this information was unknown, and Russia acted with impunity.
• Academics, journalists, and the FBI have since exposed this complex and messy situation.
• The West failed to acknowledge Russia's military attack, downplaying it as "meddling" or "interference".
• Cadwalladr emphasizes that it was warfare.

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The failure to recognise the information war and its consequences

🎦 34:50-37:02⏩

• Jonathan agrees with Cadwalladr, highlighting the failure to recognize the information war as central to the current situation in Ukraine.
• Putin won the first offensive (2014-2022) by convincing the West it wasn't a war.
• The West dismissed it as "just ads" that didn't work.
• Facebook remains an open threat surface, exploited by authoritarians worldwide.
• Cadwalladr asserts that the world is at war, even if it's not a world war, and describes Britain as a "captured state".
• In America, institutions worked despite Trump, with investigations, indictments, and jail sentences related to Russia's hostile actions.
• However, the US media and public failed to grasp the Mueller report's real lessons.
• The UK didn't even try, sweeping the 2016 events under the carpet (Nigel Farage, Aaron Banks, Facebook, Russia).
• It wasn't just ads; it was war.
• It's crucial to understand that Putin's attack on Ukraine and the West was a joint attack on both, starting simultaneously across the same platforms.
• The invasion of Ukraine is not just about Ukraine; the West is part of the plan.
• Ukraine is fighting for the West as well.
• The West's failure to understand Putin's strategy stems from not recognizing it's directed at them too.
• This makes the current moment uniquely perilous.
• The Skripal poisoning, planned by the GRU, is an example of military doctrine carried out by military officials, similar to the situation in Ukraine.

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Georgia's upcoming elections and pro-EU demonstrations

🎦 37:02-37:50⏩

• Georgia's elections are five days away (26th October).
• Huge pro-EU demonstrations took place in Tbilisi over the weekend.
• No Report states "Georgia chooses the European Union".
• A massive opposition march is underway ahead of the elections.
• Moldova is holding the first round of presidential elections and a constitutional referendum on EU integration with 11 candidates running.

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Distrust in Western support for Eastern Europe

🎦 37:50-39:10⏩

• Ivana Stradner, a Balkans expert, notes distrust in Poland towards Western powers' commitment to protecting Europe against Russia.
• Biden recently tweeted about the US's commitment to its friends (the Quad: US, UK, France, and Germany, and possibly Italy).
• Stradner reports that people in Poland and the Baltic countries feel the same way, not trusting the US, France, Germany, or the UK to protect them.
• She warns that Putin won't stop in Ukraine and is just buying time.
• Jonathan partially agrees but doubts Russia's current military capacity for a move into Europe, particularly with ground and air forces.
• He acknowledges the potential for information warfare.
• People in the Baltics and Poland are concerned about the threat of Russia and are taking matters into their own hands.

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Allegations of House Republicans acting as Russian agents

🎦 39:10-40:01⏩

• Representative Daniel Goldman on CNN revealed that House Republicans, wittingly or unwittingly, have been acting as agents or assets for Russian intelligence.
• This raises concerns about the current state of the Republican Party.
• Jonathan mentions previous complaints about Russian propaganda reaching Congress, potentially through individuals like Marjorie Taylor Greene.
• There are concerns about Russian agents, intentional or not, operating within Congress.

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Lloyd Austin's visit to Kyiv and UK-Germany security pact

🎦 40:01-40:31⏩

• US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Kyiv for a surprise visit amid questions about the long-term sustainability of Western support for Ukraine.
• Britain and Germany signed a historic security pact, allowing joint military exercises on NATO's eastern border with Russia (likely in Estonia and Lithuania).
• This follows a recent UK-Germany security pact, the specifics of which are unclear.

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Britain's efforts to strengthen relationships with Europe and potential for EU re-entry

🎦 40:32-43:44⏩

• Britain has been seeking closer relationships with Europe, with Keir Starmer recognizing the impossibility of immediate EU re-entry due to the remaining Leave voters.
• Jonathan acknowledges the older skew of the Leave vote and the theory that re-entry might be more feasible once those generations have passed and younger, more pro-EU generations become dominant.
• Polls currently show a pro-EU majority in the UK.
• The Labour Party was split on Brexit, with Jeremy Corbyn being a "Lexiteer" (left-wing Brexit supporter).
• Jonathan explains the EU's nature as a neoliberal economic free market trade bloc, which might clash with Corbyn's socialist outlook.
• Critics of the EU often point to its regulations, creating an inherent contradiction between free market principles and regulatory oversight.
• Labour's stance on Brexit was ambiguous, leaving it to the electorate and individual campaigns.
• The Conservative Party was also divided on the issue.
• Keir Starmer is currently focused on building closer relationships with Europe without immediate re-entry, pursuing bilateral deals and security agreements.
• This could be a step towards eventual integration, but it's also necessary for security cooperation regardless of EU membership.
• The UK needs to work closely with allies like NATO and the EU to counter threats from BRICS, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
• Jonathan supports this approach, viewing it as essential for security and potentially paving the way for future EU re-entry.

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Poland's plans for stronger sanctions on Russia during its EU Council presidency

🎦 43:44-44:39⏩

• Poland will push for stronger sanctions on Russia during its presidency of the EU Council starting in 2025.
• This follows Viktor Orban's controversial presidency, which many were unhappy with.
• Poland aims to tighten controls on Russian energy imports (including fuel and LNG) with support from several EU countries.
• The focus will be on transparency in energy supplies and addressing sanctions evasion.
• Hungary may oppose future sanctions, but Ukraine is optimistic that Poland will drive decisive action to limit Russia's war capabilities.
• Jonathan welcomes the change from Orban's leadership to a more pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia agenda under Poland's presidency.

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Lula's stance on Ukraine and Russia, and his absence from the BRICS summit

🎦 44:39-47:16⏩

• Jonathan discusses Lula da Silva's stance on the Ukraine war, acknowledging his preference for Lula over his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.
• He doesn't believe Lula is a natural supporter of Putin but recognizes Brazil's reliance on trade with Russia (fertilisers, imports, exports).
• Lula's anti-American stance positions him in an interesting but complex position.
• Jonathan suspects Lula's sometimes supportive statements towards Russia are primarily motivated by looking out for Brazil's interests.
• However, he finds Lula's lack of strong support for Ukraine annoying.
• CNN reports that Lula suffered an injury in an accident and will not attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
• Doctors diagnosed an injury to the back of his head, advising against air travel.
• Jonathan speculates that this might be a manufactured excuse for Lula to avoid the summit.
• He believes this could be Lula's attempt to maintain a neutral stance while avoiding direct association with Russia.
• Jonathan criticizes Lula's stance on Ukraine and his promotion of the China-Brazil peace plan, but reiterates that Lula is not a strong Putin supporter either.
• He acknowledges Brazil's importance as a global player.

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Yulia Navalnaya's potential presidential candidacy in Russia

🎦 47:19-49:17⏩

• Yulia Navalnaya, Alexei Navalny's widow, stated in a BBC interview that if she returns to Russia, she will run for president.
• She acknowledges that returning to Moscow is impossible as long as Putin remains in power.
• She couldn't even attend her husband's funeral due to the risk of arrest.
• A criminal case has been opened against her in Russia under charges related to participation in an extremist organisation.
• Jonathan sees this as a significant development, potentially laying the groundwork for an opposition leadership in exile.
• He considers it a "broadside" against Putin and a powerful announcement for the future.
• This could galvanize Navalny's supporters in Russia and abroad, potentially attracting Western support and forming a meaningful opposition movement.
• Jonathan had been speculating about her potential political aspirations, observing her in the Navalny documentary and wondering if she had the qualities of a politician.

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Wrap Up

🎦 49:18-49:22⏩

• Jonathan concludes the video, mentioning he's been talking for too long.
• He bids farewell to his viewers.

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