Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"Everything that happens going forward, think, is this making the US more transparent, more democratically free and fair? Is this doing something for the American population, or is this doing something for the moneyed elites? Is this something to gain more power for the Trump administration? What is each decision and each executive order? Which bucket do we put it in?"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update. This is the third part of the update for the 17th of January 2025. He intends to begin with European-centric geopolitical news related to the war.

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German Foreign Minister criticises government hesitancy on Ukraine support

🎦 00:17-01:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the dynamic within the German government regarding Ukraine support. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, from Scholz's SDP party, seemingly agree on increasing support, contrasting with Chancellor Scholz's more hesitant stance.

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Zelensky and Robert Fico clash over calls for forgiveness towards Russia

🎦 01:10-02:28⏩
Jonathan reports on the public disagreement between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Slovak politician Robert Fico. Fico, known for his pro-Russian stance, questioned why Russia couldn't be forgiven, prompting a sharp rebuke from Zelensky. Zelensky drew a parallel to Fico's own experience of being shot, highlighting the absurdity of forgiving such aggression.

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Zelensky criticises Slovak government for stance on Ukraine

🎦 02:28-02:47⏩
Jonathan highlights Zelensky's criticism of the Slovak government's stance on the war. Zelensky argues that Slovakia is playing a "dangerous game" by criticising military support for Ukraine and fostering closer ties with Russia.

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European gas imports from Russia reach record high despite sanctions

🎦 02:47-04:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the record high levels of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by European Union countries in the first 15 days of 2025, despite existing sanctions. He explains this is largely due to pre-existing long-term contracts, which complicate the ability to cease purchases immediately without facing legal challenges.

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Iran and Russia sign strategic partnership agreement

🎦 04:41-05:09⏩
Jonathan reports on the Iranian President's official visit to Moscow, culminating in a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement being signed between Russia and Iran. He speculates whether this mirrors the agreement between Russia and North Korea, which has seen North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. He shares Anne Applebaum's view of this development as "autocracy, Inc.", where like-minded authoritarian regimes collaborate.

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Russian hackers target WhatsApp accounts

🎦 05:09-05:30⏩
Jonathan discusses Microsoft's report on Russian hacker group Star Blizzard impersonating U.S. government officials to compromise WhatsApp accounts and steal sensitive data. He notes that NGOs appear to be a particular target of this campaign.

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Russian diplomats breach restricted area in UK Parliament

🎦 05:30-06:02⏩
Jonathan expresses his disbelief at the news of Russian diplomats breaching a restricted area within the UK Parliament. He explains that a group of diplomats on a tour separated from the group and entered the House of Lords chamber, before being swiftly removed by security. He sees this as a deliberate stunt by the Russians.

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UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy outlines goals and AI strategy

🎦 06:02-08:54⏩
Jonathan segues into UK politics, discussing Foreign Secretary David Lammy's goals of stimulating economic growth and reducing immigration. He delves into Lammy's interest in AI, particularly its potential to:

• Generate briefings for diplomats.
• Analyse open-source data to identify vulnerabilities and interests of negotiating counterparts.

Jonathan sees both opportunities and threats associated with AI, acknowledging concerns about job displacement while recognising its increasing role in society and areas like open-source intelligence.

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Ukrainians question Trump's ability to end the war swiftly

🎦 08:54-11:23⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the US and Ukraine, citing a Reuters article on Ukrainian scepticism towards Trump's promise of quickly ending the war. He highlights the shifting timeframes given by Trump and his team. He references a poll showing only 31% of Ukrainians believe in a swift resolution, with another 31% unsure. This, he argues, suggests Ukrainians are wary of a rushed, disadvantageous peace deal. Jonathan quotes outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who believes the Trump administration has been provided with all necessary resources to secure a "good agreement" to end the war. However, Jonathan believes Blinken is subtly shifting responsibility onto the Trump administration for achieving a favourable outcome.

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Zelensky's comments on NATO and negotiations with France and Poland

🎦 11:23-11:42⏩
Jonathan notes Zelensky's statement that the US, Hungary, Slovakia and Germany oppose Ukraine joining NATO. He also reports that Zelensky has revealed Ukraine spent $100 billion on the war in 2022 and is engaged in talks with France and Poland regarding the deployment of peacekeepers. Jonathan emphasises Zelensky's focus on obtaining robust security guarantees as a cornerstone of any negotiation.

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Mike Turner removed as Chair of House Intelligence Committee

🎦 11:42-12:29⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the removal of Mike Turner, a pro-Ukraine Republican, as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee. He believes this was orchestrated by Speaker Mike Johnson at the behest of the pro-MAGA, isolationist and anti-Ukraine faction within the Republican Party.

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Trump's susceptibility to influence and the rise of the anti-Ukraine faction

🎦 12:29-15:37⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation, arguing that Trump himself lacks a strong ideology and is easily swayed by those around him. He posits that Trump's pronouncements are often shaped by "proximity bias," reflecting the views of the last person he spoke with. He expresses deep concern about the potential influence of figures like Donald Trump Jr. and Elon Musk, who espouse pro-MAGA, isolationist, and anti-Ukraine views, on Trump's decisions. Jonathan worries about the implications of an increasingly oligarchic system in the US, where the interests of the wealthy elite supersede those of ordinary citizens. He sees the Ukraine war as a battle between democracy and autocracy, and is alarmed by the US, a key Ukrainian ally, potentially shifting towards the latter. Jonathan questions whether the US will remain a "beacon of light" for democracy given these trends.

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Abductive reasoning and evaluating political decisions

🎦 15:37-17:45⏩
Jonathan introduces the philosophical concept of "abductive reasoning" - inferring the best explanation for a phenomenon. He argues this lens can be applied to political decisions, urging viewers, regardless of their political affiliations, to consider who benefits from particular policies. He simplifies this into a binary:

• Does a decision serve the ideals of a free and fair democracy, benefiting the entire country?
• Or does it primarily benefit the administration in power, increasing its wealth and power?

Jonathan encourages viewers to apply this framework to evaluate the actions of both the Biden and Trump administrations, citing examples such as the Chips and Science Act and Trump's tax cuts.

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Republican attempts to repeal the Corporate Transparency Act

🎦 17:45-19:32⏩
Jonathan highlights Republican efforts to repeal the Corporate Transparency Act, which mandates companies to disclose their true ownership. Citing a Wall Street Journal article, he notes Republicans label the law as "big government overreach." Jonathan questions their motives, arguing the law promotes transparency and combats corruption. He suggests this repeal benefits corporations engaged in illicit activities and hinders efforts to create a more democratic and accountable system.

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Analysis of Trump's proposed corporate tax cuts

🎦 19:32-20:42⏩
Jonathan analyses the potential impact of Trump's proposed corporate tax cuts, which he plans to deepen from his 2017 cuts. He points out that these cuts disproportionately benefit the wealthiest Americans, citing data that reveals the richest 0.1% received a tax cut 277 times larger than that received by teachers and firefighters. He further highlights the massive tax benefits large corporations would receive under Trump's plan, including banks, drug makers, oil companies and grocery chains. Jonathan questions the populist justification for these cuts, arguing they primarily benefit those already accumulating vast wealth rather than addressing societal inequities.

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Removal of Mike Turner from the House Intelligence Committee

🎦 20:42-23:14⏩
Jonathan revisits the removal of Mike Turner from the House Intelligence Committee, questioning who benefits from this decision. He posits that it serves Putin's interests by removing a staunch Ukraine supporter, suggesting a potential alignment between the Trump administration and Russia. He then details how Turner has been completely removed from the committee, not just replaced as Chair, further underlining the influence of the anti-Ukraine faction.

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Conflicting messages and tensions within the Trump administration on Ukraine policy

🎦 23:14-26:02⏩
Jonathan identifies conflicting messages and tensions within the Trump administration regarding Ukraine policy. He contrasts seemingly sensible announcements, such as plans to strengthen sanctions against Russia to pressure them into a peace deal, with actions like removing Mike Turner, which suggest a more pro-Russian stance. He attributes this to a power struggle between those with a nuanced understanding of geopolitics, like Mike Walsh and Keith Kellogg, and the more ideologically driven MAGA faction. He speculates on the motives behind these conflicting signals, suggesting Trump might be attempting to appease both sides or is being pulled in different directions by competing influences. Jonathan concludes that this lack of a unified strategy creates uncertainty and raises concerns about the US's commitment to supporting Ukraine.

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Potential ramifications of Mike Turner's removal for the Republican Party

🎦 26:02-28:43⏩
Jonathan examines the potential consequences of Mike Turner's removal for the Republican party. He notes that Trump's claim of a "massive mandate" to lead is empirically false, pointing to the extremely narrow majority in the House of Representatives (217 to 215). He suggests Turner's sidelining could have significant repercussions, as his lack of participation in votes would further erode the Republican's slim advantage. Jonathan explores possible scenarios:

• Turner refuses to vote, reducing the Republican majority to a single vote.
• Turner switches allegiances, creating a tied House or potentially even giving Democrats the majority.

He finds this situation fascinating, particularly the potential for Turner to be offered a prominent role within the Democratic party as leverage. Jonathan concludes that the attempt to sideline Turner could backfire on the Republicans, highlighting the potential naivety of the MAGA faction in understanding the complexities of political maneuvering.

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Trump's Greenland stance and criticism of US foreign policy

🎦 28:43-31:23⏩
Jonathan expresses concerns over the MAGA faction's ideological rigidity, suggesting they may be prioritising their agenda over practical governance. He then criticises Trump's continued threats towards Denmark over control of Greenland, citing a report that Trump reiterated the possibility of imposing tariffs on Denmark if they refuse to relinquish Greenland to the US. Jonathan views this as detrimental to US interests, arguing that it needlessly strains relations with allies while emboldening adversaries like Russia and China. He questions whether this is a deliberate distraction tactic by Trump, similar to Elon Musk's criticism of the UK, or indicative of a misguided foreign policy approach. He urges Trump to focus on domestic issues like inflation and immigration, which were central to his campaign promises, instead of engaging in unnecessary conflicts.

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Call to action for viewers to critically evaluate political decisions

🎦 31:23-32:05⏩
Jonathan concludes by urging viewers to critically evaluate the actions of the Trump administration, regardless of their political stance. He encourages them to consider which policies genuinely promote transparency, fairness, and benefit the American people, versus those that serve the interests of a wealthy and powerful elite.

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Wrap up

🎦 32:05-32:08⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, reminding them to take care and signs off, promising to speak to them soon.

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