Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Putin's War Crimes, Kupol's Criticisms, Force Asymmetry, & Storks
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"The most valuable thing in war is combat experience. A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It's heaven and earth. And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience. Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded."
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares extra information and analysis to provide a deeper understanding of the war in Ukraine. He has a lot to cover in this video, including:
- The ICC arrest warrant for Putin
- Issues with a video showing a Russian jet and a US drone
- Negative views from Ukrainian commanders about challenges they are facing
- An update on Putin's health
- The war's impact on Ukraine's environment and wildlife
ICC issues arrest warrant for Putin over war crimes
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin for war crimes, specifically the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia. This is one of 11 crimes that constitute grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions.
- Maria Alexeyevna Lvova-Belova, Russia's Children's Rights Commissioner, is also wanted for the same crimes. The irony of her role in overseeing war crimes against children is insulting.
- A panel of ICC judges agreed there are reasonable grounds to believe Putin and Lvova-Belova bear individual criminal responsibility for these crimes.
- The deportation of children is the war crime for which the ICC likely has the most easily accessible evidence at this stage, compared to crimes like those in Bucha which require meticulous forensic work.
- Russia has paraded some of these children on TV and talked openly about moving them to Russia, claiming it as a "humanitarian gesture". One report says at least 6,000 children have been deported, while Ukraine puts the number at over 16,000.
- Moscow has rejected the ICC warrants as "outrageous" and meaningless, noting Russia is not a party to the Rome Statute of the ICC. However, the 123 countries that are part of the ICC are obliged to arrest Putin if he enters their territory.
- This presents a geopolitical problem for Putin in carrying out his duties as head of state. It also raises questions for his supporters on how to justify his actions in the face of war crimes evidence.
Issues with video showing Russian jet and US drone incident
Jonathan analyses the US military video showing the encounter between a Russian jet and a US Reaper drone over the Black Sea. A few issues stand out:
- The video shows Russian jets flying very close to the drone, likely trying to disrupt its navigation by dumping fuel on it.
- One jet appears to clip the drone's propeller, causing the feed to cut out. This part seems genuine.
- However, the video then shows a later section with the drone's damaged propeller. This part looks spliced in afterwards for a few reasons:
1) If the drone was hit and the camera feed cut out, how was this later footage captured? 2) The propeller is damaged but the drone is not in a tailspin as claimed. 3) The propellers have yellow stripes in the initial footage but not the later damaged section, suggesting it's from a different drone.
- While the appended section seems fake, the overall incident with the Russian jet and drone did occur. Jonathan cautions against adding in disinformation as it's unhelpful, even if the intent was to reinforce the case against Russia.
Ukrainian commander "Kupol" shares frontline challenges
The Washington Post interviewed a Ukrainian battalion commander with the call sign "Kupol" who gave a frank but negative assessment of the situation on the frontlines. His key points:
- Steep losses have dramatically changed the composition of Ukraine's forces. In Kupol's battalion of ~500 soldiers, only around 100 have combat experience. The rest are inexperienced new recruits.
- These fresh soldiers lack basic skills like using grenades and often abandon their positions under fire. More NATO trainers are needed.
- There are severe ammunition shortages, including a lack of mortar bombs and grenades.
- Kupol feels Ukraine's leadership is overly optimistic and not acknowledging the realities on the ground. He said "It's like all we do is give interviews and tell people that we've already won, just a little bit further away, two weeks, and we'll win."
- However, Jonathan argues this negative view needs to be put in context. The Russian forces are likely facing even bigger issues with lack of training and equipment. As long as that asymmetry remains in Ukraine's favour, they still have an overall advantage.
Challenges reforming Ukraine's Soviet-era military
Ukraine's military still has outdated Soviet-style command structures that need modernising, according to an analysis by Lt Col Glenn Grant shared in the Kyiv Independent. Some key issues:
- Lack of clear ownership and responsibilities for different areas of the frontline, leading to confusion and casualties. Every area needs a designated commander.
- Special forces units meant for deep attack operations behind enemy lines are being misused as regular light infantry.
- Effective commanders who minimise troop losses need to be promoted faster. Senior leaders need to delegate more to junior officers with frontline experience.
- Shortages of basic equipment like radios, night sights, mortars, grenades that should be a higher priority in aid discussions, not just heavy weapons.
- Outdated bureaucratic processes are causing delays in vital supplies reaching the front. For example, drones bought abroad took 4 weeks to be released instead of 12 hours, costing soldiers' lives.
- Jonathan notes that despite these challenges, ignoring them will only worsen the human cost of the war for Ukraine. Reforms are needed alongside Western equipment and training to maximise Ukraine's chances of success.
Putin's health issues
Jonathan has written a separate article detailing Putin's apparent health problems based on analysing videos of his public appearances over time. Putin almost certainly has some form of cancer and possibly also Parkinson's disease. His limp has become more pronounced recently. However, it remains to be seen whether these health issues will lead to anything more serious.
Return to top⤴️
War's impact on Ukraine's environment and wildlife
Lastly, Jonathan reminds us not to forget about the war's terrible impact on Ukraine's environment and wildlife. Ukraine is home to diverse ecosystems and animals beyond its human population. As migratory storks return from Africa to their nests in Ukraine's eastern, southern and northern regions, they are met with scenes of destruction. Many nests have been destroyed by explosions and fires. The stork population and other wildlife will likely suffer significant losses due to Russia's invasion.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan has more to share but will need to cover those in future videos due to his backlog. He appreciates all the support for his channel and invites constructive comments from viewers. Jonathan is grateful for everyone who has come on this journey with him.
Return to top⤴️
