Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News - RANT MODE - Kellogg in the Crosshairs

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:02⏩
Jonathan welcomes the team to the second part of the 30th May 2025 Ukraine War news update, highlighting the significant geopolitical news, particularly around peace negotiations. He thanks Ivan for a cup of tea, a "humanitarian act of tea provision," before diving into the day's events, which include discussions about the recent Kharkiv trolleybus depot shelling, an act Jonathan considers a war crime.

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US Appointments Hostile to Ukraine

🎦 01:57-04:51⏩
Jonathan expresses deep concern over recent appointments within the US administration, specifically noting Kingsley Wilson, the new DOD spokeswoman, whom he describes as "overtly anti-Ukrainian." He also highlights the nomination of Paul Ingrassia to run the United States Office of Special Counsel, who publicly stated he would rather see the Confederate battle flag fly over public buildings than the Ukrainian flag. Jonathan views this as a "serious problem" and evidence of a "moral rot" infiltrating various US departments under the Trump administration, lamenting that the US "will not provide the best for Ukraine."

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Easing of Sanctions on Russian Oil by US

🎦 04:51-05:51⏩
Bloomberg reports that Russian oil continues to flow to India via US-blacklisted tankers, indicating a potential easing of US pressure on Russia despite sanctions. Jonathan points out that the US may no longer be closely monitoring enforcement and has ended joint sanctions efforts with the EU, leading to "widening loopholes." He highlights this as another concerning sign of the US administration's stance towards Russia and Ukraine.

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Upcoming Istanbul Peace Talks and Russian Stance

🎦 05:51-09:52⏩
Jonathan discusses the impending Istanbul peace talks on June 2nd, where US, German, French, and UK representatives are expected to meet with Russian and Ukrainian delegations. He notes that while Ukraine, via Andriy Yermak, is ready for constructive discussion and seeks Russia's draft memo in advance, Russia's UN Ambassador Nebenzia has stated that no new sanctions or military aid will prevent Ukraine's "inevitable military defeat." This, according to Jonathan and Anton Herashchenko, clearly signals Russia's lack of intention to end the war, as they are "telling you this in plain sight." The ISW also reports Russia is intentionally delaying submitting peace terms to pressure Ukraine and shift blame. Russia's demands remain extreme: "denazification," "demilitarisation," and formal ceding of five oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea). A State Duma Defense Committee head claims Ukraine is "hysterically provoking Russia" by seeking aid.

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Critiquing Keith Kellogg's Diplomatic Approach

🎦 09:53-19:54⏩
Jonathan expresses extreme frustration, entering "rant mode," with Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy, for his "despicable" and "naive" diplomatic approach. Kellogg publicly stated that Trump is ready to promise Putin that NATO will not expand eastward if it's a condition for ending the war. Jonathan argues this gives away a crucial bargaining chip before negotiations even begin, allowing Putin to demand more. He ridicules Kellogg's contradictory statements and naive understanding of negotiation, where he deems Russian talking points as "fair concerns" while simultaneously ruling out Ukraine's NATO membership. Jonathan asserts that Trump's "two weeks away" promises are empty rhetoric, and any "walk away" threat (as Kellogg suggests Trump might do if he feels "used") would only punish Ukraine, not Putin, essentially conceding victory to Russia. He views this as a "freaking messed up" situation, highlighting the US administration's dangerous approach.

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NATO Expansion - A Guarantee of Peace

🎦 19:54-20:28⏩
Jonathan contrasts Keith Kellogg's views with those of Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, who states, "NATO expansion is not a threat. It's a guarantee of peace." Lipavský points out that where Russia borders NATO (Poland, Romania, Baltic nations, Finland, Sweden), there is no war, but conflict exists elsewhere. This reinforces the idea that NATO membership brings stability, directly refuting the Russian narrative promoted by Kellogg.

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US Threat to Withdraw from Peace Talks

🎦 20:28-21:57⏩
Jonathan highlights further confusing and contradictory statements from the US administration. John Kelly, acting deputy representative to the UN for the US, states the US "will walk away from peace talks if Russia continues the war." Jonathan finds this absurd, arguing it incentivises Russia to continue fighting and punishes Ukraine. He stresses the hypocrisy, as Kelly claims "we are not abandoning our principles or our friends" while suggesting a move that would betray Ukraine. Jonathan concludes that Trump's repeated promises to end the war in "two weeks" are a "reset with Russia" rather than a genuine pursuit of peace.

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European Frustration with US and Trump's Betrayal

🎦 21:57-28:27⏩
Emmanuel Macron calls on the US to uphold sanctions against Russia, seeing it as a "test of credibility" for Americans, indicating Europe's readiness to step up if the US falters. Ilya Ponomarenko, former Kyiv Independent journalist, asserts that Donald Trump has "betrayed Ukraine... Europe, NATO, and 80 years of American global leadership" for "promised business deals with Putin," whom he "absurdly admires like a teenage fanboy." He believes Putin, who despises Trump, will only offer "open mockery" in return. German MP Roderich Kiesewetter echoes this, stating he trusts the US Congress ("the Hill") but not the current Trump administration, which he believes has "changed sides" by giving Putin "much leeway" and sharing Russian propaganda. Chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov stresses that the US won't stand up to Putin until Republicans stand up to Trump, lamenting their public silence despite private disapproval.

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US Influence and Right-Wing Populism in Polish Elections

🎦 28:27-30:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the concerning US influence in Polish politics, with Chrissy Noem publicly advocating for Karol Nowrocki in the presidential runoff. This is further complicated by Hungary's pro-Russian leader, Viktor Orban, backing Nowrocki at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) in Budapest, where Robert Fico of Slovakia was also a guest of honour. Jonathan highlights the fundamental connection between the American MAGA right and Eastern European right-wing populism. He hopes Orban's endorsement will backfire due to Poland's strong anti-Russian electorate, noting Orban's previous failed endorsement in Romania.

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Hungary's Vulnerability to EU Article 7 and Allies

🎦 30:23-33:50⏩
Viktor Orban's government is increasingly concerned about the EU possibly suspending Hungary's voting rights under Article 7 due to rule of law violations, fearing a "Huxit" referendum. Reports from Szabolcs Panyi indicate that Orban's informal blocking coalition (Austria, Cyprus, Italy, Slovakia) is not solid, with some members privately admitting they would support Article 7 if it came to a vote. Robert Fico of Slovakia remains Orban's most reliable ally. Jonathan notes Orban's desperate endorsement of Romanian presidential candidate George Simion (who lost), and now Polish candidate Nowrocki, as attempts to secure allies for vetoing Article 7 proceedings. He describes this as a "fascinating chess game" in Eastern Europe.

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Serbia's Ambiguous Stance on Arms Supply to Ukraine and Plant Explosion

🎦 33:50-37:35⏩
Russia's foreign intelligence service has accused Serbia of supplying ammunition to Ukraine via third-party NATO countries (Czechia, Poland, Bulgaria) and even African nations, with reports claiming "hundreds of thousands of shells" and "a million small arms rounds." Serbian President Vucic denies these claims, stating, "we work only for Serbia," despite maintaining friendly ties with Russia. Following these accusations, an explosion occurred at the Krusik military plant in Vajevo, western Serbia, injuring seven people. This plant, which produces mortar bombs and artillery shells, had a previous explosion in August 2024. Jonathan finds the timing highly suspicious, implying Russia's involvement ("two and two equals... four").

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Georgia's Descent into Authoritarianism

🎦 37:35-38:02⏩
Jonathan reports sad news from Georgia, where opposition leader Nika Melia was detained on May 29th, as the ruling Georgian Dream party continues its crackdown on dissent. He notes that Georgia is "becoming more like Russia every day," which he finds deeply concerning.

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German Digital Tax on Tech Giants and the Threat of Techno-Authoritarianism

🎦 38:02-41:46⏩
Germany plans to impose a 10% tax on global internet giants like Meta and Google. Jonathan expresses hope that the EU will "get heavy on tech companies," criticising their historical influence over the Trump administration through inauguration payments and settlements (e.g., Elon Musk/X, Sam Altman/OpenAI, Jeff Bezos/Amazon, Mark Zuckerberg/Meta). He warns of the rise of "techno-fascism" or "techno-authoritarianism" if the power of these tech giants is not constrained. Jonathan reinforces the adage, "if you are not buying a product, you are the product," asserting that these companies profit from user data to increase their power. He commends Germany's "steely" stance on Russia, tech companies, and Trump.

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Wrap up

🎦 41:46-43:14⏩
Jonathan concludes by apologising for his "rant" but reiterates his deep disturbance regarding Ukraine's current position, feeling they are repeatedly "thrown under the bus" by the US. He illustrates this with an analogy of Trump kicking Zelensky under a bus, only for him to crawl out with another broken leg. He describes it as "heartbreaking to see the complete disdain for democracy and freedom and morality" in the Trump administration. Jonathan stresses the crucial need for Europe to be strong and united, echoing Macron's sentiment, while acknowledging the economic and strategic advantages the US gains if it does not stand with Europe in supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia.

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