Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is plotting attacks - these are attacks on Europe... this is, I would, I would state this is war."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:22⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel. He encourages everyone to watch the Ukrainian Eurovision entry, "Heart of Steel", praising the song's uplifting message and powerful imagery. He has listened to it 19 times already today!
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Slovakia: An Intelligence Black Hole
🎦 01:22-08:07⏩
Slovakia has become an intelligence risk for the West due to its increasingly pro-Russian government, according to Jonathan. He cites a report from the Centre for European Policy Analysis, which claims Slovakia's Western allies no longer trust them with sensitive intelligence. This distrust stems from a history of scandals within Slovakia's intelligence agencies, particularly during Vladimir Mečiar's time as Prime Minister in the 1990s. Jonathan details the history of corruption in Slovakia's intelligence agencies and notes the questionable actions of current SIS chief, Pavel Gašpar. Jonathan expresses concern over Slovakia's backsliding democracy, likening it to Hungary's trajectory. Jonathan touches on intelligence scandals plaguing Austria, stating a former intelligence and police official linked to Russia allegedly passed a NATO encryption device to Russian intelligence. He encourages viewers to watch his previous video on the Wirecard scandal for more details. Jonathan ends the topic with a quote from former US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, who once called Slovakia under Mečiar's leadership, "a black hole in the heart of Europe".
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Russia Plotting Attacks across Europe?
🎦 08:07-13:12⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from Bloomberg and the Financial Times alleging Russia is plotting sabotage attacks in Europe. He notes this supports discussions from the previous night's livestream with Tony (Tochny). He argues these actions constitute an act of war against Europe and believes the public should be made aware of this. He lists several recent incidents potentially linked to Russia, including:
- An arson attack on an East London warehouse storing aid for Ukraine. Two men charged are accused of working for the Russian government.
- An explosion at a BAE Systems factory in South Wales that manufactures arms for Ukraine.
- A fire at a General Dynamics plant in Pennsylvania that makes artillery shells for Ukraine.
- A fire at a factory near Berlin run by a firm making air defence systems.
- Two Russian-German men arrested in Bavaria for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany.
- Train derailments in Sweden are under investigation as potential state-backed sabotage.
- Alleged attempts to destroy signalling systems in Czech railways.
- Attacks on the Estonian interior minister's car and journalists.
- Cyberattacks on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party.
- GPS jamming impacting civilian flights over the Baltic states, Poland and Scandinavia.
- Cyberattacks on Britain’s Electoral Commission and the Royal Family’s website.
Jonathan reveals Timothy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics and former Ukrainian Minister of Economy, shared details of additional, unpublished attacks with him. Jonathan questions Russia's motives for these attacks, using GPS jamming of civilian flights over the Baltics as an example. He suggests Russia may be testing NATO defences to identify vulnerabilities, citing an FT article that argues there is never one single reason behind Russia's actions. He believes these attacks are practice runs for larger-scale disruptions.
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More Russian Sabotage in Europe?
🎦 11:45-12:58⏩
Jonathan cites a report from The Economist that details further incidents of suspected Russian sabotage:
- Unexplained explosions at Bulgarian arms factories in 2015, 2020, and 2022. Jonathan previously discussed this with Ukrainian agencies who were convinced of Russian involvement.
- Russian-linked activist groups allegedly manipulating control systems for water utilities in America and Poland and a hydroelectric facility in France.
- An ally of Alexei Navalny attacked in Vilnius, Lithuania.
- The poisoning of Russian opposition activists in Berlin.
- Attacks on monuments.
Jonathan questions if the public truly grasps the extent of Russian hybrid warfare being waged against the West, reiterating his belief that we are in World War III.
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Dutch Politics and Support for Ukraine
🎦 13:12-21:22⏩
Jonathan addresses a comment from a Dutch viewer, "H Aruva," about the formation of the new Dutch government. He explains the Netherlands' proportional representation system leads to coalition governments, as happened in the recent election. He uses this as a jumping-off point to discuss the benefits and drawbacks of coalition governments. He notes the Dutch far-right party, PVV, led by Geert Wilders, is finding it difficult to form a coalition due to its extreme views. He observes that Wilders has softened his stance on a "Nexit", citing the UK's experience with Brexit as a cautionary tale. Jonathan delves into a brief explanation of the economic challenges associated with Brexit. He argues the UK economy has been negatively impacted, highlighting an OECD report that predicts poor economic progress for Britain. He believes attracting inward investment is more difficult post-Brexit. Jonathan returns to the Dutch viewer's comment, revealing Wilders will no longer pursue a Nexit if he enters government. The PVV have also moderated their stance on Ukraine. Jonathan sees this a positive example of how coalition governments can moderate extreme viewpoints, arguing that coalitions protect democracies from veering into dangerous territory.
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Serbia: Shifting Alliances?
🎦 21:22-21:54⏩
Jonathan reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, visited Serbia, a country within Russia's sphere of influence. Reuters framed the visit as a sign that Serbia may be moving away from Russia. Jonathan is unsure if this will amount to any meaningful change. He notes that Serbia is also heavily influenced by China.
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Poland-Ukraine Grain Dispute
🎦 21:54-23:04⏩
Poland cancelled negotiations with Ukraine regarding Ukrainian grain exports, citing accusations of corruption against Ukrainian Minister of Agricultural Policy, Mykola Solsky. Jonathan suspects ulterior motives on the Polish side, pointing to the Polish Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Michał Kołodziejczyk's, previous hostility towards Ukraine.
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Germany Rejects Ukraine No-Fly Zone
🎦 23:04-23:45⏩
Germany has rejected the idea of a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine. Jonathan notes that this idea was discussed at the beginning of the war. While no official line was taken, Germany has dismissed the idea once again. Jonathan is curious to know which countries, if any, support the idea.
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Ukrainian Postal Service Launches in the UK
🎦 23:49-24:36⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine's national postal service, Nova Poshta, has opened its first branch in the UK. He notes this will make it easier for charities to send aid to Ukraine. He is somewhat conflicted, acknowledging it is a positive step for Ukraine, while expressing a desire to protect British institutions. He acknowledges with a touch of humour that other foreign companies, such as UPS, already operate in the UK.
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Crackdown on Protests in Georgia
🎦 24:36-27:43⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the protests in Georgia, stating riot police have moved against protesters. He predicted the Georgian government would respond with force, expressing concern about the escalating situation. Images from the protests show police violently clashing with protesters. Jonathan condemns the brutality, describing footage of protesters being beaten and dragged away by police. He draws parallels with the 2013 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine, fearing the situation in Georgia could deteriorate further. He expresses hope that the brutality will inspire further protests against the Georgian government.
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Wrap up
🎦 27:43-27:49⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and signs off.
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