Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"Assad's fall confirms the indisputable fact that the percentage of votes won by a dictator, autocrat or usurper at an election before he falls means absolutely nothing. None of that 95% support came out to defend him."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
Jonathan's introduction for the third Ukraine War News update video for 22nd December 2024 (Christmas Eve). This video will cover the latest geopolitical news before Christmas Day.

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Russian gas exports to Europe rose to 32 billion cubic metres in 2024

🎦 00:12-00:30⏩
Russian gas exports to Europe via pipeline rose to 32 billion cubic metres in 2024, netting Moscow $5 billion, according to Reuters. However, Gazprom recorded a net loss of $7 billion last year. Ukraine earned $0.8 to $1 billion in 2024 for the transit of gas. They are not extending that contract and so will lose that income.

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Slovakia offered alternative to Russian gas by Ukraine but Robert Fico refused

🎦 00:31-01:02⏩
Slovakia was offered an alternative to Russian gas by Ukraine, but Prime Minister Robert Fico refused. Fico went to Moscow but came back with nothing for Slovakia. Jonathan states that Fico is the latest example that populists only deliver for themselves and not for the people who vote for them. Russian gas supplies will stop on January 1st. Ukraine made the case not to renew the contracts. Instead of finding common ground with Kyiv, Brussels, and Washington, Fico chose Moscow, and soon Slovakia will pay the price for this foolish decision, according to Igor সেখানকার.

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Volodymyr Zelensky offered Robert Fico compensation for cutting off Russian gas, but Fico refused

🎦 01:02-01:37⏩
President Zelensky offered Fico compensation for cutting off Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, but Fico refused. Zelensky stated, "We offered him solutions regarding potential compensation for Slovaks, specifically for losses from Russian transit, as well as alternatives for transit. Any other gas, not Russian, at the request of the European Commission. We were ready to do this." Fico did not want compensation for the Slovaks, and he does not want to cooperate with the European Commission. For some reason, he finds Moscow more profitable. Jonathan's opinion is that Fico doesn't want alternatives and must get supplies from Moscow because he wants to forge a closer relationship with them. This seems to be the direction of travel for Slovakia.

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Slovaks protest against Robert Fico, chanting "traitor"

🎦 01:37-01:57⏩
Several thousand Slovaks took to the streets to chant "traitor" in a protest movement titled "Enough of Russia." Fico's grip on power is fragile, having won only 23% of the votes a year ago. His party, Smer, was originally a centre-left populist party, but he went into coalition with a far-right party. His policies now appear to be pretty far to the right. He's gone in a Putin-looking nationalist and populist direction. The population is divided due to Russian disinformation.

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Protest in Bratislava, "Enough of Russia"

🎦 01:58-02:29⏩
A protest called "Enough of Russia" occurred outside the government building in Bratislava in response to Fico's meeting with Putin. The Slovak opposition criticised the Prime Minister's visit to the Kremlin, calling it a disgrace for Slovakia. Jonathan notes it wasn't the biggest protest but still good to see.

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Viktor Orban claims Europe has lost the Ukrainian war

🎦 02:30-02:49⏩
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said that Europe has lost the Ukrainian war, although they deny it with communication tricks. He claims Russia is advancing slowly and grinding forward. Orban also claims peace was near in April 2022, but Western intervention derailed it. Jonathan comments that this is the classic Putin line and Orban really is a European, an EU Putin.

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Reports of preparations for coup d'etat in Belarus

🎦 02:50-03:21⏩
Russian media has reported there are preparations for a coup d'etat beginning in Belarus. The first protests have been planned for January 24-25th. Sleeper cells have begun to be briefed. Jonathan is unsure what this means but notes there are elections coming up and some "puppet" people have been put into the elections.

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Germany suspends economic cooperation with Georgia, worth €237 million

🎦 03:22-04:07⏩
Germany has suspended economic cooperation with Georgia, worth €237 million, as announced by Ambassador Peter Fischer. The German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development is closing projects on financing renewable energy sources, reconstruction of energy systems, and water supply infrastructure in Batumi. Support for civil society and NGOs will remain. Jonathan notes that this is a double-edged sword, as punishing Georgia for sliding into autocracy and moving away from the EU could push them further into autocracy and into the arms of Putin. It is a challenging situation because they want Georgia to come back but also want to punish them for doing the wrong thing.

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Atheist Republic video on the identity of the man who ran people down in Magdeburg Christmas market

🎦 04:08-04:54⏩
Jonathan mentions a video from the Atheist Republic about the identity of the man who ran people down in Magdeburg Christmas market. The video claims the man was an ex-Muslim from Saudi Arabia who was pro-Elon Musk, pro-AfD, and pro-Tommy Robinson. There is confusion about whether he was genuinely ex-Muslim or pretending to be using the doctrine of Taqiyya to advance an Islamic ideology. The mainstream media has stepped away from throwing accusations around. AfD will use this as an anti-migration issue regardless of his rationale. Jonathan believes the end result is that he was a mentally disturbed and delusional individual who was causing problems in the ex-Muslim atheist community.

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AfD to use Magdeburg incident to their advantage in upcoming elections

🎦 04:55-05:16⏩
Jonathan discusses how AfD will use the Magdeburg incident to their advantage and garner support in the upcoming elections, as they are not pro-Ukraine.

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Switzerland aligns with 15th package of sanctions against Russia and Belarus

🎦 05:17-05:38⏩
Switzerland has aligned with the 15th package of sanctions against Russia and Belarus. The sanctions list includes 54 individuals and 30 entities from multiple countries collaborating with Russia's military-industrial complex. Their assets have been frozen. Jonathan notes this is good news because Switzerland is not in the EU.

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Sébastien Lecornu to remain French Minister of the Armed Forces

🎦 05:39-06:04⏩
Sébastien Lecornu will remain Minister of the Armed Forces after another dissolved French government. He has been defence minister through two governments and is pro-Ukraine. Jonathan sees this as good for continuity.

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Ukraine to pick up food supplies to Syria after the fall of Assad

🎦 06:05-06:38⏩
Zelensky held a meeting of the headquarters and stated that it is fundamentally important for the security of the people of Syria and the region to remove any Russian presence from Syria. Ukraine will pick up food supplies to Syria, which have stopped from Russia after the Russian puppet Assad was toppled. Jonathan believes this shows that Moscow is no use for peoples or friendships, only for puppets it can control. Once this expires, they let them fall. He says we have seen this recently in Armenia, and we will see it in Belarus, Hungary, Serbia, and elsewhere.

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President of Angola agrees to visit Ukraine

🎦 06:39-07:17⏩
The president of Angola has agreed to come to Ukraine. Zelensky stated they are interested in developing relations with Angola, and Africa's support is important in restoring peace. Jonathan notes that Africa is important because Russia is gaining more of a foothold there, sending Syrian equipment and personnel to Libya, and involved in security agreements with countries that have had coups in the Sahel region. They are plundering natural resources to support their war. It is good to see Zelensky trying to garner support from African nations.

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Russian newspaper quote about the fall of Assad

🎦 07:18-08:15⏩
Steve Rosenberg, the BBC reporter based in Moscow, quoted a Russian newspaper: "Assad's fall confirms the indisputable fact that the percentage of votes won by a dictator, autocrat or usurper at an election before he falls means absolutely nothing. None of that 95% support came out to defend him." Jonathan finds it interesting that a Russian newspaper said this about Syria, as it can be applied to Russia and Putin's support. He wonders if it is a dig at Russia or a lack of understanding of the rank hypocrisy.

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Ukraine receives first tranche of $20 billion loan from the USA

🎦 08:16-08:44⏩
Ukraine has received the first tranche of a $20 billion loan from the USA. This is part of giving money for loans underwritten by frozen Russian assets, similar to what the UK and Japan have done. Jonathan believes this is good for Ukraine.

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US plans to impose more sanctions on Russian energy by the end of the year

🎦 08:45-09:16⏩
The US plans to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil by the end of the year, particularly targeting Russia's so-called shadow fleet, according to Vladislav Vlasyuk, the Ukrainian president's commissioner for sanctions. Jonathan sees this as good news, with the US keeping up sanctions and even ramping them up.

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Republicans to hold hearings on US aid and corruption in Ukraine

🎦 09:17-10:17⏩
Republicans are planning to hold detailed hearings on US aid and corruption in Ukraine after taking full control, according to Stephen Moore. Jonathan is concerned that this will be an excuse to not give future aid to Ukraine, rather than ensuring the right thing is happening. He notes that the GOP did not do this for Afghanistan or Iraq, where money was spent more opaquely. Ukraine is getting the magnifying glass, which could be good, but it's all about intention. Jonathan's opinion is that this is an excuse to stop helping Ukraine.

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Keith Kellogg says Trump wants to avoid repeating experience of Minsk agreements

🎦 10:18-11:07⏩
Anton Gerashchenko reports on Keith Kellogg, the incoming special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, saying that Trump wants to avoid repeating the experience of the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements were done with Russia and Ukraine after 2014, where Ukraine was forced to sign and it didn't help them, favouring Russia instead. Kellogg said in an interview with Fox Business that the previous peace talks, including the Minsk process, have failed miserably, and Trump is not going to follow that path but wants a sustainable peace.

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Keith Kellogg interview: Trump wants a fair, sustainable, and secure peace

🎦 11:08-11:45⏩
Keith Kellogg states that Trump's number one international priority is to stop the killing and bring peace to the region. He wants a peace that is fair, sustainable, and secure. Jonathan notes these are not words we've heard from Trump and wonders if Kellogg is translating Trump into what we want to hear. Trump has only mentioned fairness in the sense of equity, not objective fairness. Jonathan argues that Russia is morally culpable and needs to be punished, with reparations. It needs to be fair and just in an objective sense. Kellogg says Trump understands the importance of this and his relations with allies and Putin. He believes Trump will bring this to a conclusion in the relatively near term, contrasting with Trump's claim of doing it in a day. Jonathan reiterates that politicians shouldn't lie to the electorate.

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Mike Waltz: The war must end, Ukraine and Europe embracing Trump's desire

🎦 11:46-12:44⏩
Mike Waltz, a National Security Advisor, stated that the war must end and Ukraine and Europe are gradually embracing Trump's desire to end the war. Part of his job is to get people to negotiate and structure a deal that best serves US interests. Jonathan sees a big difference between Kellogg and Waltz. Kellogg talks about a just, sustainable, secure peace, while Waltz focuses on US interests with no mention of justice for Ukraine. Jonathan is depressed by this, as negotiations should also ensure justice for Ukraine. Waltz is saying they don't care about Ukraine or Russia, it's all about the US. Jonathan understands the US will want to work in their best interests but is concerned by the open focus on profiting the most, with no mention of Ukraine's needs.

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Mike Waltz: Ukraine must do what Trump wants, no mention of Putin

🎦 12:45-13:35⏩
Jonathan criticises Mike Waltz's statement that Ukraine must recognise they have to do what Trump wants, with no mention of Putin needing to do what Trump wants. He sees an imbalance in the rhetoric, with Ukraine as a pawn for Trump's administration and Russia getting something fair. This is different from the Biden administration's view of Putin as a murderous dictator. Jonathan believes this signals bad news for Ukraine and good news for Russia.

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Netanyahu and Elon Musk: The unofficial president

🎦 13:36-14:52⏩
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, jokingly referred to Elon Musk as the unofficial president of the US in a conversation back in September, which has resurfaced. Jonathan finds it interesting that international leaders recognise Musk's importance, even before the election. He speculates on the dynamic between Trump and Musk, and how much Trump will allow the idea of "President Musk and Vice President Trump" to circulate. Jonathan is concerned about Trump's challenging views on geopolitics, such as those on Ukraine.

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Elon Musk's comments on Taiwan similar to his views on Ukraine

🎦 14:53-16:03⏩
Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's comments on Taiwan, which are similar to his views on Ukraine, suggesting that Taiwan should be part of China if it wasn't for US and NATO expansionism. Jonathan is frustrated by this, asking what about what the Taiwanese people think and their self-determination. He questions if everything is just a football between the US and Russia, and criticises the lack of consideration for Ukraine's and Taiwan's interests. Jonathan sees this as a false dichotomy and is frustrated by it.

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Theory that Trump's hard stance on Panama is due to tax evasion

🎦 16:04-16:47⏩
Jonathan discusses a theory that Trump has taken a hard stance on Panama due to a tax issue. The Panama government accused Trump properties there of tax evasion, so Trump wants them to give him the Panama Canal. Jonathan has seen this in a number of places, with people making accusations against Trump. The theory suggests that the reason he has gone hard on Panama is because they wanted the correct amount of tax from Trump, who is well known for trying to evade taxes. If this is the case, Jonathan finds it even more despicable and self-aggrandising.

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Concerns about US isolationism: Withdrawing from WHO and Paris Accords

🎦 16:48-17:55⏩
Jonathan is worried about US isolationism, as they start issues with the rest of the world while trying to retreat and isolate themselves with tariffs and trade wars. Members of Trump's transition team are laying the groundwork for the US to withdraw from the World Health Organization on the first day of his second term, and likely the Paris Accords for climate change. Jonathan believes global issues need global cooperation, and the US opting out of these organisations is a move in the wrong direction for the world. It will prevent the world's problems from being solved, as the US being absent is a big problem.

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Mike Johnson attacked by Tucker Carlson for helping Ukraine, Trump disappointed in him

🎦 17:56-18:50⏩
Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is being attacked by Tucker Carlson for helping Ukraine, even though he didn't really. Jonathan believes Johnson understands the threat Russia poses and is pro-Ukraine in that respect, but he did stop the bill for seven months. Trump is apparently disappointed in Johnson and doubts his future in the role. Jonathan predicts another nightmare over a speaker, similar to the 13 rounds Kevin McCarthy went through before being ousted, and the issues with Johnson. He expects more chaos with whoever takes over.

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Trump criticises Mike Johnson's budget deal and failure to increase debt ceiling

🎦 18:51-19:47⏩
US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, questioning whether he can retain his position. Trump reportedly criticised the recent budget deal, which averted a government shutdown, and Johnson's failure to secure an increase in the debt ceiling, which was a priority for Trump. Sources cited growing tensions between Trump's team and Johnson due to insufficient coordination on legislative strategy. This has led to speculation about Johnson's ability to maintain Trump's confidence as key fiscal and policy battles loom in Congress. Jonathan expects this to be an ongoing thing.

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Prediction of chaotic next two years in US politics, impacting aid to Ukraine

🎦 19:48-21:05⏩
Jonathan predicts a chaotic next two years in US politics, which will impact aid to Ukraine. He believes that a settled Congress, with a functional Senate and House of Representatives singing from the same hymn sheet, is needed to support Ukraine. Due to the unsettled activity in the American political system, he does not expect any further aid to Ukraine for a long time. Even if Keith Kellogg suggests continued aid, Jonathan thinks everything will be difficult in the next couple of years. He also explains the US electoral system, with midterm elections every two years, and how this could lead to a different political landscape in 2026.

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US electoral system and its impact on Trump's ability to govern

🎦 21:06-22:25⏩
Jonathan explains the US electoral system and its potential impact on Trump's ability to govern. He notes that the mix of senators up for election in 2026 looks more favourable to Democrats, while the Republicans were always likely to do well in the 2024 Senate elections. With a narrow 217-215 majority for Republicans in the House of Representatives, just one Republican crossing the aisle could prevent a bill from passing if all Democrats vote together. Jonathan highlights that Trump did not receive 50% of the popular vote and has only a slim majority in the House, making it difficult for him to push through his agenda. He suggests that Trump will need to work with Democrats to pass legislation, as the Republicans do not have a huge mandate.

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Potential political landscape in 2026 and its impact on global security

🎦 22:26-23:34⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential political landscape in 2026 and its impact on global security. If the next two years are chaotic and unsuccessful for the Republicans, there could be a public backlash, leading to Democrats controlling both houses of Congress. This would make Trump a lame-duck president for the last two years of his term, unable to accomplish much. Conversely, if Trump is perceived as doing a good job, the situation could be different. However, Jonathan believes that the likely chaos in the next two years will not benefit Ukraine or global security. He lists various global issues that will be impacted, including Taiwan, Syria, North Africa, BRICS, potential trade wars, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, all while China poses a global threat to the US. He concludes by saying, "Crazy times ahead."

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Wrap up

🎦 23:35-23:53⏩
Jonathan asks for viewers' opinions on the points he's made. He will try to release a video on Christmas Day as he has done in the last few years.

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