Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Nothing says military success, nothing says economic prosperity like stopping celebrations, stopping parties uh, stopping festivities in your country to fund a war effort. Nothing says a really well-funded war effort like pulling down your New Year's celebrations or, or stopping them from being put up because you need to fund those uh troops"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - Ukraine War News Update, the first part for 9th December 2023. It's a wet Saturday and his son's football has been cancelled. Jonathan is staying inside drinking tea!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for 8th December 2023
🎦 00:20-03:20⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 8th December 2023. The figures are lower than previous days due to bad weather. Jonathan explains that when drones can't be deployed (due to wind, cloud or rain) it impacts the conduct of war as they're used for a variety of purposes including spotting for artillery, dropping munitions and using kamikaze drones.
- 900 Russian personnel killed.
- 6 Russian tanks destroyed.
- 11 Russian APVs destroyed.
- 1 Russian artillery system destroyed.
- 14 cruise missiles destroyed (not overnight).
- 7 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed - very low figure.
Jonathan notes that there is often a lag between drone footage being captured and it being shared online. Andrew Perpetua the mapper has totted up equipment losses for Ukraine and Russia based on the publicly available footage and it shows a roughly 6:1 loss ratio in favour of Ukraine.
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Russian Equipment Losses (8th December 2023)
🎦 02:20-03:20⏩
Jonathan reviews Russian equipment losses.
- 2 x pieces of surveillance/comms equipment
- 1 x Engineering vehicle.
- 1 x Excavator
- 1 x Mr. S piece of artillery
- 2 x T-72s and 1 other tank
- Several infantry fighting vehicles
- Several trucks
- Lots of civilian vehicles.
Jonathan notes that this is a high number of losses for the Russians.
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Ukrainian Equipment Losses (8th December 2023)
🎦 02:26-03:20⏩
Jonathan reviews Ukrainian equipment losses
- 2 x T-64 tanks (older tanks)
- A couple of BTRs
- 1 x Pickup truck.
Russia Holding 500 Ukrainian Medical Workers Captive
🎦 03:20-03:54⏩
Ukraine's ambassador to the OSCE has reported that 500 Ukrainian medical workers are being held captive by Russian forces, describing this as a violation of the Geneva Convention. Jonathan notes that this is a challenge to the Ukrainians and will impact the effectiveness of Medevac and Casvac.
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Possible Fire at Novosibirsk Airport - Su-57
🎦 03:54-04:54⏩
Footage circulating online yesterday appeared to show a Russian Su-57 stealth fighter on fire at Novosibirsk Airport. Jonathan notes that Russia only has 10-20 of these fifth-generation aircraft. However, the Dead District Telegram channel has suggested that it was an engine heater that caught fire, not the plane itself. Temperatures at Tolmachevo Airport yesterday morning were -37 degrees Celsius, so an engine heater would be necessary.
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Thermobaric Explosion - Not Recent Footage
🎦 04:54-5:47⏩
Jonathan cautions that footage circulating online showing the impressive explosion of a TOS-1 thermobaric multiple rocket launcher is not recent, although acknowledges it is still impressive.
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Russian MOD Prioritising Drone Footage over Tactical Objectives
🎦 05:47-09:26⏩
Jonathan shares a post on Telegram by Dimitri from WarTranslated from a Russian combatant volunteer (Filatov) about Russian military doctrine regarding the use of FPV drones and how their use is having a detrimental impact on the battlefield. Filatov argues that the Russian MOD is prioritising the capture of "nice content for social media" over tactical objectives. He shares a story of how a commander-to-be (X) was killed, arguing that a commander should undergo an assault and hold positions before being given the responsibility of command. Filatov argues that the death of X, and several other fighters, is due to the FPV management structure within the Russian Army and how the prioritisation of "pretty" footage over supporting infantry is a repeating scenario. Jonathan notes that there have been similar reports of this in the past from the Kherson/Dnipro River area.
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Distant Strikes - No Activity
🎦 09:26-12:13⏩
Jonathan reports no distant strikes on Ukraine overnight, speculating that Russia may not have the stocks of missiles that they are thought to possess. He references a throwaway comment made by an unnamed Western official during an episode of the Ukraine Latest Podcast that Russia does not have a thousand missiles ready to use. Jonathan questions why Russia hasn't launched large scale attacks on Ukraine yet, especially given that Winter has started, if the intent was to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure. If it's to target Ukrainian military targets, why the delay? He discounts the theory that the reason for the lack of missile attacks from the Black Sea is due to the relocation of the fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
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Russia Regrouping Forces - Possible Increase in Offensive Operations
🎦 12:13-12:42⏩
The commander of the Estonian Military Intelligence Centre (Ants Kiviselg) has said that Russia is regrouping its forces, which may result in an increase in the tempo of offensive operations in the coming weeks.
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Ukraine Confirms Further Raids on Crimea
🎦 12:42-13:52⏩
The representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has confirmed that Ukrainian military raids in occupied Crimea will continue. He confirmed that there have been more raids than have been reported publicly, including the recent ones conducted by Ukrainian marines on Cape Tarkhankut in Western Crimea. The raids, which targeted Russian radar installations, were followed by missile strikes on S-400 air defence systems elsewhere in Crimea.
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Rumours of Zaluzhny's Resignation
🎦 13:52-18:17⏩
Jonathan discusses a report by Jason J. Smart (Kyiv Post) suggesting that rumours are circulating that General Valery Zaluzhny may be about to resign as Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Citing unnamed sources, Smart reports that Zelenskyy's office has already chosen a replacement candidate (General and former MP, Mykhailo Zabrodskiy) and that they are currently in consultation with Washington over the decision. The reason for this, it's claimed, is that Western partners were disappointed by the outcome of Ukraine's counteroffensive, which failed to meet expectations. Despite repeated requests from US General Milley, Zaluzhny has been unable (or unwilling) to offer new ideas, which has resulted in a strategic deadlock. To add weight to the rumour, Zaluzhny's recent demands for 17 million artillery shells during Lloyd Austin's recent visit to Ukraine have been interpreted by some as a deliberate attempt to force his own resignation. Furthermore, a sentimental photograph of Zaluzhny with his wife and a restrained congratulatory message for Ukraine's Armed Forces Day (which included the phrase "I will not be ashamed") have been interpreted by some as a farewell to public life. Adding further fuel to the fire, Washington has extended an invitation to Zabrodskiy to visit the US. Jonathan is ambivalent about whether or not there is any truth to the rumours, acknowledging that whilst changing your general in the middle of a war is not ideal, winter does offer a window of opportunity to make such a change. Furthermore, he acknowledges that Zaluzhny's reputation as a successful military commander could be overstated, given the apparent lack of tangible success during the counteroffensive. However, Jonathan confesses to liking Zaluzhny, who has cultivated a successful media persona for himself.
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Russian Cities Cancel New Year's Festivities
🎦 18:17-19:01⏩
In a sign of the pressure Russia's economy is under, several major Russian cities have cancelled their New Year celebrations to free up funds to purchase military equipment for the war in Ukraine. Jonathan questions the message this sends about Russia's military and economic success.
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Food Shortages in Russia
🎦 19:01-21:47⏩
Anton Gerashchenko has reported on a growing food shortage in Russia. A week ago, footage went viral showing long queues for eggs in the city of Saratov. Local media has reported that the shortages have led to fights breaking out between shoppers. Gerashchenko believes that the food shortages will lead to significant price rises. In response, the Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service is planning to introduce a ban on raising food prices by more than 30% in 2024. However, a recent survey has shown that almost 25% of large Russian companies are planning to increase prices anyway in response to the falling Ruble and rising fuel prices.
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Belarussian Propagandists Openly Admit to Kidnapping Children
🎦 21:47-22:38⏩
Belarussian propagandists have openly admitted on television that Belarus has been involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied Kherson, describing this as happening "as usual with joy and drive." This comes shortly after the International Red Cross suspended the Belarussian Red Cross over its alleged involvement in the forced deportations.
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Russian Politician Stakes Claim to Alaska
🎦 22:38-24:23⏩
Russian politician Sergey Miranov has called for Russia to reclaim Alaska. He tweeted, "Did you want a new world order? Here you go - Venezuela is annexing its 24th state, Guyana Essequibo! This is happening right under the nose of the once great hegemon, USA. All that's left is for Mexico to take back Texas and the rest of the territories. It's time for Americans to think about their future and also about Alaska. Alaska for Russia!" Miranov accompanied the tweet with a photo of the Russian flag. Jonathan connects Miranov's tweet to a recent poll showing that almost 50% of Republicans believe that the US has given too much aid to Ukraine, speculating that the perception of US weakness has emboldened Russia. He believes that the annexation of Crimea in 2014, followed by the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has sent a message that such behaviour is acceptable to other countries. He cites Venezuela's recent claim to Guyana's Essequibo region as a case in point.
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Another Emergency Landing in Russia
🎦 24:23-25:09⏩
Yet another Russian passenger jet has been forced to make an emergency landing. The Rossiya Airlines Airbus A319, with 111 passengers onboard, encountered problems shortly after takeoff from Mineralnye Vody Airport in the Stavropol region. Jonathan notes that these occurrences are happening daily in Russia now.
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Wrap Up
🎦 25:09-25:19⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking his viewers for their support and reminding them that he'll be covering a story from the Australian Financial Review about potential new military aid for Ukraine in his next video.
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