Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia has no way to counterattack the Ukrainian armed forces. So one of the main goals now is genocide of the civilian population to make Ukrainian cities uninhabitable, especially in winter when the absence and severe lack of electricity will actually mean death for many Ukrainians."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:39⏩
Jonathan apologises for the late video, explaining he was at his son's football tournament. He recounts how his son's team, despite having previously beaten their semi-final opponents twice, lost on penalties after the other team employed defensive tactics. He then introduces the main topic of the video: the Ukraine War.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 01:39-03:02⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day. The figures indicate notable losses for Russia, including:
- Personnel: 1,210
- Tanks: 9
- Armoured personnel vehicles: 9
- Artillery systems: 36 (double the average)
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 68
- Special equipment: 10 pieces
Jonathan notes the figures are consistent with the past week's trends and highlights the significance of the artillery system losses.
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Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Losses
🎦 03:02-08:02⏩
Jonathan transitions to discussing visually confirmed Russian losses documented by Andrew Perpetua, emphasizing the extensive work involved in compiling the data. He notes the loss ratio heavily favors Ukraine, exceeding the desired daily ratio of 3:1. Jonathan analyses the inclusion of Starlink systems in the list, acknowledging their importance but questioning their relevance alongside military equipment. He observes a rise in the reported losses of Western-donated equipment like Bradleys, Senators, and Max Pros, interpreting this as a sign that Ukraine might have depleted much of their Soviet-era equipment. Jonathan expresses a preference for Ukrainian forces utilizing more modern equipment due to its superior capabilities. He then details the range of Russian losses visually confirmed by Perpetua, which include surveillance and communication equipment, recovery vehicles, artillery (including a 240mm self-propelled mortar), tanks, and various infantry fighting vehicles. He also highlights the destruction of numerous trucks and civilian vehicles.
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Bradley vs. BTR-82A Footage
🎦 08:02-09:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a video showing a close-range engagement between a Ukrainian Bradley and a Russian BTR-82A. He describes the footage as potentially the best of its kind, showing the Bradley's Bushmaster gun effectively disabling the Russian vehicle. He comments on the BTR's seemingly suicidal course of action, questioning the decision to engage a heavily armed Bradley.
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Northern Frontline & Russian Offensive
🎦 09:42-11:25⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the northern front line, discussing a video of a strike on a Russian troop concentration in Kirove, Kharkiv Oblast. He speculates on the type of munitions used (possibly AASM Hammer guided glide bombs or artillery). He mentions reports of F-16s being modified to fire French AASM Hammers. Jonathan then shows footage of Ukrainian border guards destroying Russian engineering equipment in the Sumy direction, indicating Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian attempts to establish positions for a potential attack from Kursk Oblast.
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Ukrainian Yak-52 & Russian Drone Warfare
🎦 11:25-12:40⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a Ukrainian Yak-52, a piston trainer aircraft, targeting a Russian Zala 4211-16E series reconnaissance drone. While the drone's downing is unconfirmed, Jonathan points to previous instances of Yak-52s successfully engaging drones. He highlights the importance of countering these reconnaissance drones as they pose a significant threat by identifying high-value targets deep behind Ukrainian lines.
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Times of India & Disinformation
🎦 12:40-14:05⏩
Jonathan criticizes the Times of India for publishing what he considers pro-Russian disinformation, specifically citing their uncritical reporting of Russian MOD claims regarding Ukrainian troop casualties. He criticizes their use of outdated imagery and labels their reporting as "absolute nonsense." Jonathan suggests the Times of India might be influenced by the Kremlin's propaganda machine.
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Overnight Drone & Missile Activity
🎦 14:05-15:59⏩
Jonathan covers overnight drone and missile activity. Ukraine reports shooting down nine out of thirteen Shahed drones and a single Kh-59 missile. While the remaining four Shaheds' impact is unknown, Jonathan notes significant activity inside Russia and occupied territories. He cites Tim White's reporting of explosions in occupied Crimea, including Sevastopol, where rumors of a sunken ship circulate. While Russia claims minimal damage, resident accounts contradict these assertions.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes in Russia
🎦 15:59-22:37⏩
Jonathan details several Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia.
- Akhtubinsk Air Base: The base, home to Su-57s (Russia's most advanced fighter jet), was targeted, raising questions about the Su-57's limited deployment in the war.
- Belgorod: CCTV footage shows an explosion in Belgorod, possibly targeting Russian air defenses.
- Mozdok Air Base: Ukrainian forces used Mugen-5 long-range drones to strike the base in North Ossetia, over 400 miles from the front line. This base houses Tu-22M3 bombers and other aircraft. While initial Russian reports claimed minimal damage, later statements acknowledged fires, and footage shows a drone impacting the airfield.
Jonathan emphasizes the significance of these attacks, particularly the strike on Mozdok Air Base, which demonstrates Ukraine's growing ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
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Russian Strikes on Oil Depots
🎦 22:37-23:33⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia struck two oil depots in the Kyiv region, a significant blow to Ukrainian logistics and supplies. He draws a parallel to previous Russian attacks on oil depots in Kharkiv, highlighting the strategic importance of such targets.
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Russian Troop Movements & Ukrainian Advantages
🎦 23:33-25:52⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian troop movements, citing information from analyst David D, who suggests Russia is spreading its forces thin, pulling units from the east to reinforce the north. Jonathan sees this as playing into Ukraine's hands, as Ukrainian forces have better internal lines of communication and supply. He explains the concept of internal lines, highlighting Ukraine's advantage in quickly moving troops and resources compared to Russia's reliance on longer, less efficient routes through occupied territories.
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Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure
🎦 25:52-31:48⏩
Jonathan delves into the dire state of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. He reports:
- Russia has destroyed 50% of Ukraine's power generation capacity.
- 73% of large thermal power plants have been destroyed or damaged.
- 20 hydroelectric power units are out of operation.
He condemns Russia's systematic targeting of Ukraine's energy grid, viewing it as an attempt to cripple the country and demoralize the population, particularly during the harsh winter months. Jonathan argues that while this tactic can be seen as a war crime or an act of genocide against civilians, it also weakens Ukraine's military capabilities by disrupting industrial production, government functions, and potential foreign investment in Ukraine's defense industry. He expresses concern that Ukraine's energy infrastructure is nearing collapse despite the resilience shown in other areas. He highlights Ukrainian government pleas for citizens to reduce electricity consumption and the increasing reliance on generators for essential services. Jonathan calls for continued international support in providing generators to help Ukraine withstand the energy crisis.
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Russian Public Opinion & Anti-War Sentiment
🎦 31:48-38:12⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with anecdotes that point to potential cracks in Russian support for the war:
- A video shows a woman confronting a returning veteran in Novosibirsk, calling him and others "murderers" for fighting in Ukraine.
- Another video shows reactions of Russian citizens to a prank where a picture of Putin is placed in an elevator. Many express negative sentiments towards Putin, ranging from disgust to fear.
While acknowledging the potential for manipulation and limited scope of these anecdotes, Jonathan believes they hint at a larger undercurrent of dissent within Russia, particularly in urban centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg. He speculates that while a significant portion of the population might oppose the war, they remain silent due to fear of reprisal from Russia's extensive security apparatus.
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Wrap up
🎦 38:12-38:22⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video, and expresses gratitude for their support.
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