Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They want to do to the Russians what the Russians did to them, except probably have a greater degree of accuracy and at least intelligence in finding out really meaningful military targets"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War Update for 11/01/2024. He intends to cover the Ukrainian General Staff figures before moving on to other news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff figures
🎦 00:23-01:30⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, which were provided by a viewer called Devin. He notes that personnel losses are high at 830, but equipment losses are low, with 12 tanks, 22 armoured personnel vehicles and 15 artillery systems lost. He notes that this is unusual and speculates on the reasons for this. He also observes that there have been no cruise missile or Shaheed drone attacks for the last two nights, potentially indicating issues with stockpiling or production, although a shipment of Shaheed drones has reportedly arrived in Russia from Iran.
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Military Losses - Oryx Blog
🎦 01:30-03:32⏩
Jonathan reviews losses verified by the Oryx Blog, maintained by Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans. He notes that, according to the blog, visually confirmed losses are higher on the Russian side. He notes a video showing a number of Russian boats being destroyed by Ukrainian night vision drones, probably in the Dnipro River area. He believes that the boats were likely carrying Russian troops and describes this as a "real loss" for the Russians. He also notes the destruction of a Russian Tornado-G multiple launch rocket system and a decoy BM-21 Grad. He observes that most other Russian losses were trucks and civilian vehicles.
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Ukrainian Military Losses - Increase in Wounded
🎦 04:56-07:18⏩
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Jonathan discusses a report from ABC News citing a Ukrainian surgeon in Dnipro who stated that there has been a one-third increase in the number of Ukrainian soldiers with serious injuries, many requiring limb amputations. Jonathan notes that this will impact Ukraine's ability to maintain troop numbers at the front. He speculates that this is likely due to the intensity of the fighting around Robotyne, Velikonovo-Slika and Novo-Momekalivka, but notes that, despite the challenges, the situation for the Russians is reported to be far worse. Jonathan goes on to share several social media posts from Russian sources that support this, claiming that Ukrainian forces are inflicting losses at a ratio of 7:1, with even higher ratios being reported in places like Avdiivka.
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Russian Military Leadership Losses
🎦 09:00-10:13⏩
Jonathan reports the death of a Russian commander, killed in a recent Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike on a command node in Sevastopol, Crimea. The death was initially a rumour but has now been confirmed. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians will also have lost officers but this is not being reported by the Ukrainian side.
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Russian Mercenary Captured
🎦 09:53-10:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces have captured a Russian mercenary from Somalia near Marinka, highlighting Russia's use of foreign fighters.
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Fire at Russian Polymer Plant
🎦 10:13-10:52⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at a polymer plant in the Moscow region, spanning 8,000 square meters. He questions whether this was a result of sabotage or an insurance job.
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Distance Strikes - Kharkiv
🎦 10:52-13:07⏩
Jonathan reports on Russian strikes on Kharkiv, noting that S-300 missiles were used to attack civilian infrastructure, including a journalist hotel. This is the second time a journalist hotel in Kharkiv has been hit in recent weeks. He highlights the indiscriminate nature of these attacks and the likelihood of civilian casualties, questioning the legality of such actions and arguing that this constitutes a war crime, irrespective of whether the hotel was intentionally targeted.
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Explosions in Russia
🎦 13:08-15:00⏩
Jonathan reports unconfirmed explosions in Rostov. He speculates that Ukrainian forces may be targeting strategically important targets within Russia, such as logistical hubs and storage facilities that the Russians have been forced to pull back from occupied regions due to the threat of HIMARS. Jonathan believes that Ukrainian drones, which now have a longer range than HIMARS, are increasingly being used for this purpose. He suggests that this trend will continue as Ukraine seeks to degrade Russia's ability to wage war. He predicts that Ukraine will continue to prioritise military targets.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes in Russia
🎦 15:00-16:47⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia claims to have shot down three Ukrainian drones over Rostov, Tula, and Kaluga regions. While Russia claims there was no damage, the Governor of Kaluga admitted that a drone explosion damaged a pumping station. Jonathan believes that this marks the beginning of a concerted Ukrainian drone offensive against targets within Russia. He speculates that Ukraine is currently scaling up its drone production and stockpiling drones for future use. He believes that Ukrainian strikes will inflict far greater damage when used in larger numbers, perhaps as many as 20 or even 100 drones in a single night. Jonathan suggests that, unlike Russia's indiscriminate drone and missile campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, Ukraine is more likely to focus on legitimate military targets. He feels that targeting civilian infrastructure within Russia would be a mistake, both strategically and in terms of public relations.
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Russian Troop Numbers
🎦 17:07-19:47⏩
Jonathan cites a statement from Vadim Skibitsky, the deputy head of the GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine) who claims that Russia now has 462,000 troops fighting in Ukraine and that Russian units are 95% manned. Jonathan expresses some scepticism about these figures. While acknowledging that Russia is still recruiting at a rate of around 30,000 new troops per month (around 1,000 per day), he questions whether Russia can realistically replace its losses at this rate given the high attrition rate. Jonathan also questions whether these newly mobilised troops are receiving adequate training before being deployed to the front lines. He speculates that Russia's ability to maintain its troop numbers at the expense of training and morale poses a significant challenge for Ukraine. Jonathan acknowledges that both sides are fighting hard to control the narrative about troop numbers, each with their own agenda.
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Russian Mobilised Troops - No Rotations
🎦 19:47-21:43⏩
Jonathan discusses a social media video posted by the wife of a Russian mobilised soldier, who is angry about a statement from a Russian official saying that there is no need to rotate mobilised troops after a year of service. The woman in the video argues that this policy is unfair and that her husband and other mobilised soldiers deserve to be rotated home after a reasonable period of service. She calls on other wives of mobilised soldiers to speak out against this policy. Jonathan suggests that the Russian government's decision not to rotate mobilised troops may be a sign that they do not have enough troops to do so.
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Russian Propaganda - Fake Video
🎦 21:54-23:58⏩
Jonathan discusses a Russian propaganda video that purports to show Ukrainian soldiers dead in a trench. He highlights several inconsistencies and flaws in the video, concluding that it is fake. For example, he notes that there is no mud in the trench, the clothing worn by the “dead” soldiers is pristine, the blood is pink, there are no bullet casings or other signs of a firefight, and the acting is poor.
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Putin's Health
🎦 24:04-27:17⏩
Jonathan discusses a video of Putin where he is seen gripping his chair in an unusual way. He speculates that this is a sign of Parkinson's Disease. Jonathan notes that there is other evidence to suggest that Putin is in poor health, such as his puffy appearance (which could be caused by steroids) and his insistence on maintaining a large distance from others (which could be a sign that he is trying to avoid exposure to germs). Jonathan believes that Putin is seriously ill and that this has implications for the way in which Russia is waging war in Ukraine. He contrasts this with the actions of Zelensky, who is often pictured interacting with people and who recently met with members of the Ukrainian community in Lithuania. Jonathan suggests that Putin's behaviour is typical of a dictator who is afraid of his own people, whereas Zelensky is not afraid to get close to the people he represents.
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Russian Economy
🎦 27:17-27:43⏩
Jonathan sarcastically notes Putin’s recent claim that the Russian economy is “leading Europe”, having overtaken Germany. He points out that Putin has been unable to help the Russian economy for the last 20 years and that the only thing that has changed is that Russia started a war. He suggests that Putin is a kleptocrat who is enriching himself at the expense of the Russian people.
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Flooding in Moscow
🎦 27:44-28:27⏩
Jonathan reports that Moscow is experiencing major flooding problems, possibly as a result of freezing pipes. This is in addition to the heating problems that have been reported in Moscow and other Russian cities in recent weeks. He notes that residents of elite residential complexes are also complaining about the flooding. Jonathan believes that these infrastructure problems are a sign of Russia's declining economic and social conditions.
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Infrastructure Issues in Russia
🎦 28:27-29:54⏩
Jonathan reports more issues with Russia's infrastructure. He notes that Novosibirsk, Russia’s third largest city, has experienced a major utility failure, leaving 100 tower blocks without heating or hot water. In Omsk, half the city is without electricity after an accident at a substation. Jonathan observes that, despite these problems, the Russian people continue to support Putin. He suggests that this is due to a combination of propaganda, fear, and apathy.
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Russian Aviation Issues
🎦 29:54-30:38⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of sanctions on the Russian aviation industry, highlighting an incident where a Ural Airlines Airbus A321 suffered engine failure, leaving passengers stranded for hours. He notes that many passengers are now reluctant to fly on Russian airlines due to safety concerns.
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US/Ukraine Planning
🎦 30:38-31:56⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from Bloomberg that claims the US is pressuring Ukraine to "sharpen its plans" for fighting Russia. The article states that the US wants to see a more detailed plan for how Ukraine intends to use Western military aid before it commits to providing more advanced weapons systems, such as ATACMS long-range missiles. He suggests that the US is being unreasonable in expecting Ukraine to produce a detailed plan without first committing to providing the necessary weapons systems.
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Wrap Up
🎦 31:56-32:52⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video, as well as pressing the notification bell. He encourages viewers to share his videos with others who may not have access to accurate information about the war, particularly in light of the lack of mainstream media coverage.
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