Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, Kharkiv Offensive Update

"I think I'm on a rollercoaster ride, as is often the case, with how I feel about how things are going".

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:28⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for the Ukraine War Frontline update. He reminds viewers that there is a key for the map if they need it.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kharkiv/Kupiansk Frontline Overview

🎦 00:28-08:18⏩

Jonathan begins by highlighting discrepancies between the maps he uses created by Deep State Map, Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps (pro-Russian). He notes that Suriat Maps shows more Russian advances around Kharkiv Oblast but the other two maps do not. Jonathan suggests that this could be because Suriat Maps assumes that everywhere a Russian soldier sets foot is immediately under their control, unlike the other maps, which represent such areas as grey zones. Jonathan focuses on Vovchansk, noting Syriac Maps shows the Russians have captured a lot of territory but the other maps do not. Jonathan suspects Suriat Maps is being "overzealous". Despite this, Jonathan concedes that the Russians could take Vovchansk. Zelensky has described the situation in Kharkiv Oblast as "generally controlled" despite Ukrainian forces needing reinforcement. Jonathan observes that this statement is unsurprising, given the circumstances. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian serviceman reports that the Russians are planning something on the Sumy Oblast border and moving equipment to the area. Jonathan thinks that the Russians will try to push as far as they can and then hold it to act as a buffer. He predicts that this would stretch Ukrainian forces thin and allow the Russians to push into the Sumy area from the north. Jonathan shows some footage from Status 6 of Vovchansk, showing a lot of fires in the town as a result of Russian attacks, probably using artillery. He doesn't have the very latest news from there as he believes the Ukrainians are trying to keep a tight hold on information. Moving to the north-eastern axis between Kupiansk-Svatove to Kreminna, Jonathan states that Deep State Map and Suriat Maps show some marginal Russian gains to the north of Kuzemivka but the frontline is relatively stable.

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Donbas Frontline Overview

🎦 08:18-11:48⏩

Jonathan reports no changes around Siversk or the Torsk-Yar area. He notes that the Russians have stalled in the latter area recently. Moving south, there are no changes in the Chasiv Yar sector, which is good news for the Ukrainians. There have been some small Russian gains west of Ivaniske but no changes in the last 24 hours. There's better news for the Ukrainians around the northern Avdiivka area. Here, the Ukrainians have made gains around the southern area of Ocheratyne, near Solovyove. Suriat Maps confirms this, adding that Ukrainian forces have retaken trenches west of Soloveve. The Russians, meanwhile, are carrying out combing operations in Umanske following the Ukrainian withdrawal. Jonathan thinks that Suriat Maps is a few days behind on this, and says that he thinks the Ukrainians have been using Bradleys in a counterattack in the area. According to Jonathan, the 47th Assault Brigade has lost a number of Bradleys and Abrams tanks in the area, which he considers "par for the course". Finally, there are no changes to report along the rest of the eastern frontline: Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka and Mariinka are all stable. Jonathan believes that, all things considered, the front is very stable, given what's happening elsewhere.

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Southern Frontline overview

🎦 11:48-15:37⏩

Starting in the Velyka Novosilka area, Jonathan notes there is no change, which is good news for the Ukrainians as it's been a "hotspot" recently. In Robotyne, Syriac Maps claims that the Russians now control more land, pushing past Andrew Perpetua's Ukrainian defensive line, which Jonathan considers a "significant difference". Whilst this could be down to a difference in mapping schedules, Jonathan believes that there is a fundamental disagreement between the two regarding how to classify control of territory. Jonathan reads from Suriat Maps: "The Russian Army took control over the eastern trenches of Robotyne, moreover, the front was leveled in this area following the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Army northwards. Despite official declarations of the liberation of the locality". Jonathan explains that the Russian MoD has claimed Robotyne but Suriat Maps appears to contradict this by stating that "it's still necessary to take the northern trenches, where Ukrainian troops still remain". Despite this apparent contradiction, Jonathan believes that Suriat Maps is in broad agreement that the Russians have taken the majority of Robotyne. However, he then goes on to read from a tweet from "No Report" which contradicts this: "The Russian MoD claims Robotyne has been occupied, but this is false, yet Russians have managed to occupy more areas towards the centre in recent weeks". Jonathan concludes that Robotyne is contested. He admits that he's amazed the Ukrainians have held on to the sector for so long, given the circumstances, but says it looks like the Russians are making progress there, even though the town itself has no strategic value. He believes that the Ukrainians are fighting hard because they do not want the battle to move further back. Finally, there are no reports from Kherson.

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Jonathan's rollercoaster of emotions

🎦 15:37-19:41⏩

Jonathan confides in his viewers, telling them that he is on a "rollercoaster ride" with his emotions about the war. He says that he feels positive when he hears news about military aid arriving in Ukraine and reports of heavy Russian casualties but then feels anxious when he hears that the Russians are attacking in the east and capturing places like Avdiivka. Then, when he sees the Ukrainians counterattacking successfully in places like Robotyne, he feels optimistic. His mood shifts again, though, when he hears that the Russians are amassing troops and equipment in the north. On the one hand, he is concerned that the Russians will be able to consolidate their gains in the north, but, on the other hand, he draws comfort from the fact that the frontline has stabilised and that more military aid is coming from the US ($2bn), Denmark ($750m) and other countries. Jonathan believes that this will allow the Ukrainians to train and equip more troops, which, in turn, will improve their prospects in the long term. Jonathan mentions that the situation is up and down. When he starts to feel anxious about Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, he's reassured by news about the success of Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on key targets and the arrival of F-16s, expected in late July at the earliest. Jonathan explains that the Ukrainians are already "shaping the battlefield" by taking out S-400 and S-300 air defence systems in Crimea, which should allow them to deploy ATACMS with more success. As the Ukrainians degrade Russian air defences, their attacks will become ever-more effective, creating a snowball effect. Jonathan feels that the Ukrainians should concentrate on striking Russian positions behind the lines with long-range munitions in order to preserve their own troops. Once the F-16s are operational, they will be able to achieve even greater success.

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Wrap up

🎦 19:41-19:50⏩

Jonathan asks viewers for their thoughts. He signs off by reminding them that it is the 16th of May and bids them farewell.

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