Ukraine War Update EXTRA
Table of Contents 📖
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"HIMARS are only as good as the intelligence you get right they're only as good as knowing where something is if you know where nothing if you don't know where anything is then there's no point having HIMARS you need the intelligence and then you need a precision artillery and ordnance well you've got both of those components brilliant you can wreak havoc behind the lines of the Russians"
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as an extra Ukraine war update providing additional insights to help viewers better understand the conflict.
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Russian troop movements in Kherson
- According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia is redeploying some units and withdrawing troops from Mikhalkovka and Novokokovka to Nizhny Serozhy
- This is interesting if true, as it's unclear why Russia would pull troops and collaborators away from these important places, particularly Novokhrivka which provides access across the river via a dam
Summary of Alexei Arestovich's daily livestream
Key points from Arestovich's livestream, translated by Dimitri War on Twitter:
- General Zelushny said in an Economist interview that Russia will likely use mobilization to prepare a new attack on Kyiv and northern Ukraine around February
- Russia's current objectives are to defend and keep occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk
- Russian tactic is using Wagner mercenaries and prisoners as "cannon fodder" to "cleanse Russian prison and society"
- Jonathan finds this concept fascinating - solving prison costs and recidivism by using prisoners in human wave attacks
- Russia hopes to repeat the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk scenario but the quality of new mobilized forces is questionable
- Ukraine is preparing defenses for worst-case scenarios but also planning to keep the initiative with counteroffensives
- General Zelushny requested more weapons to accelerate and expand counteroffensives, stating Ukraine currently only has resources for one major operation
General Zelushny's Economist interview
In his interview with The Economist, General Zelushny stated:
- To reach Crimea's borders, Ukrainian forces must advance 84km to Melitopol
- Capturing Melitopol would bring Ukraine within artillery range of the land corridor to Crimea
- From Melitopol, Ukraine could shell the Crimean Isthmus
- Jonathan questions the wisdom of telegraphing these intentions, wondering if it could be a bluff
Booby traps left by Russians
In the recently liberated village of Snihurivka, a backpack containing a PMN-2 mine was found, highlighting the danger of booby traps left behind by retreating Russians. Civilians must remain vigilant for mines and traps for months. Sadly, there are still reports of civilians being killed by mines in liberated areas like Kharkiv.
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Viewer comments
Jonathan shares three insightful YouTube comments:
- Carlos Diaz suggests the US was apprehensive about heavily equipping Ukraine early on after their experience with Afghan forces collapsing and equipment falling into enemy hands. As Ukraine proved itself, US confidence grew along with the quality and quantity of support provided. Jonathan agrees this was likely a factor along with the reduced Russian conventional threat and nuclear risk.
- James Cottle highlights the importance of intelligence, noting Ukraine's leveling factors are limited precision weapons and vast intelligence from the West's satellite capabilities. Jonathan agrees, explaining how critical real-time intelligence is for maximizing the effectiveness of systems like HIMARS.
- Andreas Pop believes the ongoing attritional fights along the front lines are a Ukrainian strategy to fix and degrade Russian forces while preparing for a major southern offensive towards Tokmak and Melitopol. Jonathan agrees this is plausible and aligns with General Zelushny's statements. Taking the logistical hubs of Tokmak and Melitopol could enable Ukraine to threaten Crimea from a distance.
Territorial defense soldier allegedly shoots down cruise missile
A Ukrainian territorial defense soldier allegedly shot down a Russian cruise missile with a machine gun. While the claim is unverified, Jonathan muses that if true, it would certainly be a proud accomplishment for the individual.
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German politics and support for Ukraine
Jonathan discusses recent German polling showing growing support for sending modern battle tanks to Ukraine, now at 48% in favor vs 41% against. Interestingly, support is particularly high among Green Party supporters, which along with the SPD are more left-leaning parties. Conversely, the right-wing AfD party (compared to UKIP or MAGA Republicans) shows the lowest support. Jonathan speculates this could be due to younger, more idealistic demographics in the Greens and SPD who view the war more in terms of Ukrainian self-defense against Russian aggression. He invites German viewers to share their insights on these political dynamics.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel. He mentions an upcoming video addressing viewer comments about Elon Musk and Donald Trump's involvement in Ukraine. He ponders why people become defensive when public figures they admire are criticized, speculating it may be due to identifying with them personally. Jonathan welcomes respectful disagreement and discussion.
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